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Tropical Depression Dalila Forecast Discussion Number 10
2019-07-24 16:31:45| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 AM PDT Wed Jul 24 2019 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 241431 TCDEP5 Tropical Depression Dalila Discussion Number 10 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP052019 800 AM PDT Wed Jul 24 2019 Deep convection associated with the cyclone has continued to decrease in coverage this morning, however, there is still a broken band of convection over the southeastern portion of the circulation. A blend of the latest Dvorak CI numbers from TAFB and SAB support maintaining an intensity of 30 kt for this advisory. Dalila will be moving over SSTs of 23-24 deg C later today, and into a dry and more stable airmass. This should result in weakening, and the system is expected to degenerate into a remnant low within 24 hours. It appears that Dalila has taken a northward jog this morning, but the longer-term motion estimate is 320/6 kt. There has been no change to the track forecast reasoning. Dalila should continue moving northwestward today, then turn west-northwestward as it comes under the influence of the low-level trade wind flow. The NHC track forecast has been adjusted slightly north of the previous advisory due to the more northward initial position, however, the updated official forecast is still near the middle of the guidance envelope and close to the multi-model consensus. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 24/1500Z 20.5N 119.0W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 25/0000Z 21.1N 119.7W 25 KT 30 MPH 24H 25/1200Z 21.9N 120.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 26/0000Z 22.3N 122.1W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 26/1200Z 22.7N 123.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 27/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Brown
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Summary for Tropical Depression Dalila (EP5/EP052019)
2019-07-24 16:31:16| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...DALILA EXPECTED TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW TONIGHT... As of 8:00 AM PDT Wed Jul 24 the center of Dalila was located near 20.5, -119.0 with movement NW at 7 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1007 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.
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Tropical Depression Dalila Public Advisory Number 10
2019-07-24 16:31:16| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 AM PDT Wed Jul 24 2019 000 WTPZ35 KNHC 241431 TCPEP5 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Dalila Advisory Number 10 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP052019 800 AM PDT Wed Jul 24 2019 ...DALILA EXPECTED TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW TONIGHT... SUMMARY OF 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...20.5N 119.0W ABOUT 605 MI...975 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 320 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 800 AM PDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Dalila was located near latitude 20.5 North, longitude 119.0 West. The depression is moving toward the northwest near 7 mph (11 km/h), and this motion is expected to continue today. A turn toward the west-northwest is forecast to occur by Thursday, and that general motion should continue until the system dissipates in a few days. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Weakening is forecast during the next couple of days, and Dalila is expected to become a post-tropical remnant low tonight. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 200 PM PDT. $$ Forecaster Brown
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Tropical Depression Dalila Wind Speed Probabilities Number 10
2019-07-24 16:31:16| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1500 UTC WED JUL 24 2019 000 FOPZ15 KNHC 241431 PWSEP5 TROPICAL DEPRESSION DALILA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 10 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052019 1500 UTC WED JUL 24 2019 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION DALILA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 20.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 119.0 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 20N 120W 34 2 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) $$ FORECASTER BROWN
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Tropical Depression Dalila Forecast Advisory Number 10
2019-07-24 16:30:42| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1500 UTC WED JUL 24 2019 000 WTPZ25 KNHC 241430 TCMEP5 TROPICAL DEPRESSION DALILA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 10 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052019 1500 UTC WED JUL 24 2019 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.5N 119.0W AT 24/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 320 DEGREES AT 6 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.5N 119.0W AT 24/1500Z AT 24/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 20.3N 118.8W FORECAST VALID 25/0000Z 21.1N 119.7W MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 25/1200Z 21.9N 120.8W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 26/0000Z 22.3N 122.1W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 26/1200Z 22.7N 123.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 27/1200Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 20.5N 119.0W NEXT ADVISORY AT 24/2100Z $$ FORECASTER BROWN
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