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Tropical Depression Dalila Wind Speed Probabilities Number 13
2019-07-25 10:32:54| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0900 UTC THU JUL 25 2019 000 FOPZ15 KNHC 250832 PWSEP5 TROPICAL DEPRESSION DALILA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 13 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052019 0900 UTC THU JUL 25 2019 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION DALILA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 21.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 120.4 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 25 KTS...30 MPH...45 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER STEWART
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Tropical Depression Dalila Graphics
2019-07-25 04:41:10| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Thu, 25 Jul 2019 02:41:10 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 25 Jul 2019 02:41:10 GMT
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Tropical Depression Dalila Forecast Discussion Number 12
2019-07-25 04:40:23| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 PM PDT Wed Jul 24 2019 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 250240 TCDEP5 Tropical Depression Dalila Discussion Number 12 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP052019 800 PM PDT Wed Jul 24 2019 Dalila is hanging on as a tropical depression. After having little deep convection throughout the day, a new area of thunderstorms has formed during the past several hours over the northeastern quadrant, which is over slightly warmer water. The remainder of the circulation consists of a swirl of low-level clouds. The initial intensity is held at 25 kt, in agreement with the earlier ASCAT data and the 00Z Dvorak classification from TAFB. Dalila is not expected to hold on much longer as a tropical cyclone, as progressively cooler waters and stable air should cause the deep convection to dissipate soon. The NHC intensity forecast continues to show gradual weakening, and ultimately dissipation in 2 to 3 days. The center of the depression has jogged to the north, likely due to the development of the convection on its northeast side. Smoothing through this recent jog yields a motion of 325/6. As the convection dies, the weak cyclone is expected to turn to the west-northwest and then the west within the low-level trade wind flow. The NHC track forecast is a little to the north of the previous one, based on the more northward initial position, and lies near the middle of the guidance envelope. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 25/0300Z 21.4N 119.8W 25 KT 30 MPH 12H 25/1200Z 21.7N 120.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 24H 26/0000Z 22.2N 121.7W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 26/1200Z 22.6N 123.2W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 27/0000Z 22.8N 124.9W 15 KT 15 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 28/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
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Summary for Tropical Depression Dalila (EP5/EP052019)
2019-07-25 04:39:51| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...DALILA HANGING ON AS A TROPICAL DEPRESSION ...EXPECTED TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW SOON... As of 8:00 PM PDT Wed Jul 24 the center of Dalila was located near 21.4, -119.8 with movement NW at 7 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1008 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 30 mph.
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Tropical Depression Dalila Public Advisory Number 12
2019-07-25 04:39:51| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 PM PDT Wed Jul 24 2019 909 WTPZ35 KNHC 250239 TCPEP5 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Dalila Advisory Number 12 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP052019 800 PM PDT Wed Jul 24 2019 ...DALILA HANGING ON AS A TROPICAL DEPRESSION ...EXPECTED TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW SOON... SUMMARY OF 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...21.4N 119.8W ABOUT 640 MI...1030 KM W OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 325 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 800 PM PDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Dalila was located near latitude 21.4 North, longitude 119.8 West. The depression is moving toward the northwest near 7 mph (11 km/h). A turn toward the west-northwest is forecast to occur on Thursday, and that general motion should continue until the system dissipates in a few days. Maximum sustained winds are near 30 mph (45 km/h) with higher gusts. Weakening is forecast during the next couple of days, and Dalila is expected to become a post-tropical remnant low on Thursday. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1008 mb (29.77 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 200 AM PDT. $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
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