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Tropical Depression Five-E Graphics
2019-07-22 22:38:29| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Mon, 22 Jul 2019 20:38:29 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Mon, 22 Jul 2019 20:38:29 GMT
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Tropical Depression Five-E Forecast Discussion Number 3
2019-07-22 22:37:10| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 PM PDT Mon Jul 22 2019 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 222037 TCDEP5 Tropical Depression Five-E Discussion Number 3 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP052019 200 PM PDT Mon Jul 22 2019 The depression is struggling to become better organized. Visible satellite imagery shows multiple low-level swirls moving about a mean center of circulation, with the deep convection being confined to the southwestern semicircle due to northeasterly shear. Both subjective and objective satellite intensity estimates indicate that the system intensity remains 30 kt. Since the exact center is somewhat difficult to locate, the initial motion is a rather uncertain 345/08kt. There has been a slight westward shift in the majority of the track guidance, and this is possibly due to them steering a weaker system than previously forecast. The depression is expected to continue to move north-northwest for the next 24-36 hours between a weak mid-level trough to its west, and a building mid-level ridge to its northeast. After 36 hours, the system should make a gradual turn toward the west-northwest as the cyclone weakens and becomes carried by the low-level steering currents. There is a shrinking window of opportunity for the depression to get its act together before it moves over SSTs below 26 C and into a stable atmospheric environment in 24-36 hours. Additionally, the 15 to 20 kt of shear currently over the system may prevent it from intensifying any further. However, the official forecast calls for the depression to intensify slightly over marginal SSTs into a weak tropical storm tonight, followed by a weakening trend beginning in about 24 hours. The cyclone should weaken into a remnant low by 48 hours and then dissipate late this week. The intensity forecast through 24 hours remains the same as the previous advisory, but it has been lowered beyond 24 hours and is in agreement with the majority of the intensity guidance. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 22/2100Z 16.7N 116.6W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 23/0600Z 17.8N 116.9W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 23/1800Z 19.1N 117.4W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 24/0600Z 20.2N 118.0W 30 KT 35 MPH 48H 24/1800Z 21.0N 119.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 25/1800Z 22.1N 121.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 26/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Latto/Pasch
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Summary for Tropical Depression Five-E (EP5/EP052019)
2019-07-22 22:36:42| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...TROPICAL DEPRESSION REMAINS POORLY ORGANIZED... As of 2:00 PM PDT Mon Jul 22 the center of Five-E was located near 16.7, -116.6 with movement NNW at 9 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1006 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.
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Tropical Depression Five-E Public Advisory Number 3
2019-07-22 22:36:42| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 PM PDT Mon Jul 22 2019 000 WTPZ35 KNHC 222036 TCPEP5 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Five-E Advisory Number 3 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP052019 200 PM PDT Mon Jul 22 2019 ...TROPICAL DEPRESSION REMAINS POORLY ORGANIZED... SUMMARY OF 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...16.7N 116.6W ABOUT 610 MI...980 KM SW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 345 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 200 PM PDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Five-E was located near latitude 16.7 North, longitude 116.6 West. The depression is moving toward the north-northwest near 9 mph and this motion is expected to continue for a day so with a turn to the west-northwest by midweek. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Some slight strengthening is possible over the next day or so, and the depression is expected to become a tropical storm tonight. After that time, the system is expected to begin weakening. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 800 PM PDT. $$ Forecaster Latto/Pasch
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Tropical Depression Five-E Wind Speed Probabilities Number 3
2019-07-22 22:36:42| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 2100 UTC MON JUL 22 2019 000 FOPZ15 KNHC 222036 PWSEP5 TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE-E WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 3 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052019 2100 UTC MON JUL 22 2019 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE-E WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 116.6 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 20N 115W 34 X 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 20N 120W 34 X 1( 1) 3( 4) 3( 7) 3(10) X(10) X(10) $$ FORECASTER LATTO/PASCH
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