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Tropical Depression Sergio Public Advisory Number 53A
2018-10-12 19:47:22| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1200 PM MDT Fri Oct 12 2018 000 WTPZ31 KNHC 121747 TCPEP1 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Sergio Intermediate Advisory Number 53A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP212018 1200 PM MDT Fri Oct 12 2018 ...SERGIO HAS MOVED INLAND OVER NORTHWESTERN MEXICO AND WEAKENS TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION... SUMMARY OF 1200 PM MDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...28.4N 111.0W ABOUT 30 MI...45 KM N OF GUAYMAS MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 50 DEGREES AT 24 MPH...39 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...998 MB...29.47 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The government of Mexico has discontinued all the Tropical Storm Warnings. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. Interests in northwestern Mexico should monitor the progress of Sergio. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1200 PM MDT (1800 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Sergio was located near latitude 28.4 North, longitude 111.0 West. Sergio is moving toward the northeast near 24 mph (39 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue today. On the forecast track, Sergio or its remnants will continue to move over northwestern Mexico later today and tonight. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Sergio is forecast to degenerate into a remnant low while moving over northwestern Mexico later today or tonight. The estimated minimum central pressure is 998 mb (29.47 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- RAINFALL: Sergio is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 3 to 5 inches, with isolated maximum amounts of 8 inches over northwestern Mexico. This rainfall could cause life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides in mountainous terrain. Moisture from Sergio will affect the United States, with total rain accumulations of 1 to 3 inches from southeast Arizona and southern New Mexico toward the southern Plains through Saturday. This rainfall could cause life-threatening flash flooding. WIND: Tropical-storm-force wind gusts are still occuring primarily to the north and east of the track of Sergio. These winds will continue to diminish today. SURF: Swells generated by Sergio could still affect much of the Baja California peninsula today and the Sea of Cortez, likely causing life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 300 PM MDT. $$ Forecaster Avila
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Tropical Depression Fifteen Graphics
2018-10-09 11:54:07| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 09 Oct 2018 09:54:07 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 09 Oct 2018 09:54:07 GMT
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Tropical Depression Fifteen Forecast Discussion Number 1
2018-10-09 11:52:24| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 600 AM AST Tue Oct 09 2018 000 WTNT45 KNHC 090952 TCDAT5 Tropical Depression Fifteen Special Discussion Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL152018 600 AM AST Tue Oct 09 2018 Geostationary satellite and recent microwave data indicate that the low pressure system over the eastern Atlantic Ocean has developed sufficently organized deep convection and a well-defined center of circulation to be considered a tropical depression, the fifteenth one of the 2018 Atlantic hurricane season. The initial intensity is set at 30 kt, in agreement with Dvorak 2.0/30 kt classifications from both TAFB and SAB. The depression is expected to strengthen a little during the next 36 to 48 hours while it remains in favorable oceanic and atmospheric conditions. Thereafter, a significant increase in west-southwesterly shear, drier air, and slightly cooler SSTs should cause weakening. The global models all show the depression opening up into a trough by day 5, and the official forecast predicts dissipation accordingly. The initial motion is uncertain since the system just formed a well-defined center, but my best guess is 285/10 kt. The depression is expected to turn northwestward tonight and continue in that general direction on Wednesday and Thursday as it moves toward a broad trough over the central Atlantic, the same one that Leslie is embedded in. After that time, when the system weakens and becomes shallow, a turn back to the left is forecast. The models are in fair agreement, and the NHC track forecast lies near the middle of the guidance envelope. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 09/1000Z 10.3N 29.7W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 09/1800Z 10.6N 30.8W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 10/0600Z 11.3N 32.1W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 10/1800Z 12.4N 33.0W 40 KT 45 MPH 48H 11/0600Z 13.6N 34.0W 40 KT 45 MPH 72H 12/0600Z 16.1N 36.0W 35 KT 40 MPH 96H 13/0600Z 17.5N 39.5W 30 KT 35 MPH 120H 14/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
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Tropical Depression Fifteen Wind Speed Probabilities Number 1
2018-10-09 11:51:52| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1000 UTC TUE OCT 09 2018 000 FONT15 KNHC 090951 PWSAT5 TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIFTEEN SPECIAL WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL152018 1000 UTC TUE OCT 09 2018 AT 1000Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIFTEEN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 10.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 29.7 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
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Tropical Depression Fifteen Forecast Advisory Number 1
2018-10-09 11:51:30| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1000 UTC TUE OCT 09 2018 000 WTNT25 KNHC 090951 TCMAT5 TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIFTEEN SPECIAL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL152018 1000 UTC TUE OCT 09 2018 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 10.3N 29.7W AT 09/1000Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 10 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1008 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 10.3N 29.7W AT 09/1000Z AT 09/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 9.9N 29.4W FORECAST VALID 09/1800Z 10.6N 30.8W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 10/0600Z 11.3N 32.1W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 40SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 10/1800Z 12.4N 33.0W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 40SE 0SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 11/0600Z 13.6N 34.0W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 40SE 0SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 12/0600Z 16.1N 36.0W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 40SE 0SW 0NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 13/0600Z 17.5N 39.5W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 14/0600Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 10.3N 29.7W NEXT ADVISORY AT 09/1500Z $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
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