je.st
news
Tag: depression
Tropical Depression Fourteen Public Advisory Number 3
2018-10-07 10:51:35| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 400 AM CDT Sun Oct 07 2018 000 WTNT34 KNHC 070851 TCPAT4 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Fourteen Advisory Number 3 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142018 400 AM CDT Sun Oct 07 2018 ...DISTURBANCE BECOMES A TROPICAL DEPRESSION... SUMMARY OF 400 AM CDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...18.6N 86.9W ABOUT 90 MI...150 KM E OF CHETUMAL MEXICO ABOUT 260 MI...420 KM SSW OF THE WESTERN TIP OF CUBA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 340 DEGREES AT 3 MPH...6 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The government of Mexico has upgraded the Tropical Storm Watch from Tulum to Cabo Catoche to a Tropical Storm Warning. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * The Cuban provinces of Pinar del Rio and the Isle of Youth * The coast of Mexico from Tulum to Cabo Catoche A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within 24 hours. Interests along the northeastern and central U.S. Gulf coast should monitor the progress of the depression. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 400 AM CDT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Fourteen was located near latitude 18.6 North, longitude 86.9 West. The depression is moving toward the north-northwest near 3 mph (6 km/h). A turn toward the north is expected later today, with that motion at a faster forward speed continuing through early Wednesday. On the forecast track, the center will move through the Yucatan Channel Monday morning and then across the eastern Gulf of Mexico late Monday through Wednesday. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Some strengthening is forecast during the next several days, with the depression expected to become a tropical storm later today. The system could become a hurricane by Tuesday night or Wednesday. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb (29.65 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to first reach the coast within the warning area by this evening or tonight, making outside preparations difficult or dangerous. RAINFALL: Total rain accumulations of 3 to 7 inches are expected over western Cuba and 2 to 4 inches over the Yucatan Peninsula, Belize, and northern Honduras through Tuesday. Isolated maximum amounts of 12 inches are possible in western Cuba. A separate area of persistent very heavy rainfall is expected along the Pacific coast of Central America and Mexico, including western Nicaragua, El Salvador, Guatemala, and the state of Chiapas in Mexico. In many of these areas this rainfall could lead to life-threatening flash floods. Elsewhere, outer rain bands from the depression are expected to produce total rain accumulations of 2 to 4 inches across the Florida Keys through Monday. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 700 AM CDT. Next complete advisory at 1000 AM CDT. $$ Forecaster Berg
Tags: number
public
advisory
tropical
Tropical Depression Fourteen Forecast Advisory Number 3
2018-10-07 10:51:04| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC SUN OCT 07 2018 000 WTNT24 KNHC 070850 TCMAT4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOURTEEN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 3 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142018 0900 UTC SUN OCT 07 2018 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS UPGRADED THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH FROM TULUM TO CABO CATOCHE TO A TROPICAL STORM WARNING. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * THE CUBAN PROVINCES OF PINAR DEL RIO AND THE ISLE OF YOUTH * THE COAST OF MEXICO FROM TULUM TO CABO CATOCHE A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA... IN THIS CASE WITHIN 24 HOURS. INTERESTS ALONG THE NORTHEASTERN AND CENTRAL U.S. GULF COAST SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THE DEPRESSION. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.6N 86.9W AT 07/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 340 DEGREES AT 3 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.6N 86.9W AT 07/0900Z AT 07/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.4N 87.0W FORECAST VALID 07/1800Z 19.4N 86.7W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 40SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 08/0600Z 20.8N 86.4W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT...110NE 70SE 30SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 08/1800Z 22.3N 86.6W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT...130NE 100SE 40SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 09/0600Z 23.9N 87.1W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 60NE 40SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT...130NE 120SE 50SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 10/0600Z 27.6N 87.3W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 50 KT... 60NE 60SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT...130NE 130SE 70SW 80NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 11/0600Z 32.0N 84.0W...INLAND MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 12/0600Z 37.0N 76.0W...NEAR THE VA COAST MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.6N 86.9W NEXT ADVISORY AT 07/1500Z $$ FORECASTER BERG
Tags: number
advisory
tropical
depression
Tropical Depression Rosa Graphics
2018-10-02 10:54:07| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 02 Oct 2018 08:54:07 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 02 Oct 2018 08:54:07 GMT
Tags: graphics
rosa
tropical
depression
Tropical Depression Rosa Forecast Discussion Number 29
2018-10-02 10:51:51| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 300 AM MDT Tue Oct 02 2018 276 WTPZ45 KNHC 020851 TCDEP5 Tropical Depression Rosa Discussion Number 29 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP202018 300 AM MDT Tue Oct 02 2018 Satellite imagery continues to show a lack of convection near the center of Rosa this morning. The remaining convection is located well northeast of the center, and is spreading inland over northern Mexico and portions of the Desert Southwest. A couple of partial ASCAT passes revealed an area of 25-30 kt winds over the central Gulf of California, and this is the basis for reducing the initial intensity to 30 kt. The data also suggest that the circulation has become elongated and that a new center may be forming near the northeastern coast of the Baja California peninsula. The initial motion estimate is 030/9 kt. Rosa is expected to move northeastward between a deep-layer ridge over northern Mexico and a mid- to upper-level trough over the northeastern Pacific. These steering features should bring the center of Rosa across the northern Gulf of California and into northern Mexico this afternoon. Southwesterly shear and land interaction should cause the cyclone to continue to weaken today, and Rosa is expected to dissipate over northern Mexico or southwestern Arizona by tonight. Although Rosa is forecast to weaken, the system is still expected to bring heavy rainfall and life-threatening flash flooding to portions of northwestern Mexico and the Desert Southwest during the next day or so. Key Messages: 1. The main hazard expected from Rosa or its remnants is very heavy rainfall in Baja California, northwestern Sonora, and the U.S. Desert Southwest. These rains are expected to produce life-threatening flash flooding and debris flows in the deserts, and landslides in mountainous terrain. For more information about potential rainfall in those areas, please see products from the Weather Prediction Center and your local NWS forecast office. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 02/0900Z 29.3N 114.9W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 02/1800Z 31.8N 114.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND 24H 03/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Brown
Tags: number
discussion
rosa
tropical
Tropical Depression Rosa Wind Speed Probabilities Number 29
2018-10-02 10:51:51| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0900 UTC TUE OCT 02 2018 284 FOPZ15 KNHC 020851 PWSEP5 TROPICAL DEPRESSION ROSA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 29 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP202018 0900 UTC TUE OCT 02 2018 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION ROSA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 29.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 114.9 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT P PENASCO 34 4 X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) $$ FORECASTER BROWN
Sites : [675] [676] [677] [678] [679] [680] [681] [682] [683] [684] [685] [686] [687] [688] [689] [690] [691] [692] [693] [694] next »