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Subtropical Depression Leslie Forecast Advisory Number 7
2018-09-25 04:32:13| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC TUE SEP 25 2018 275 WTNT23 KNHC 250232 TCMAT3 SUBTROPICAL DEPRESSION LESLIE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 7 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132018 0300 UTC TUE SEP 25 2018 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. SUBTROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 33.1N 47.1W AT 25/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST OR 90 DEGREES AT 3 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 12 FT SEAS..180NE 150SE 240SW 120NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 33.1N 47.1W AT 25/0300Z AT 25/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 33.1N 47.4W FORECAST VALID 25/1200Z 32.9N 45.6W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 26/0000Z 33.1N 43.2W...POST-TROPICAL MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 0NE 0SE 0SW 250NW. FORECAST VALID 26/1200Z 34.5N 41.1W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 0NE 0SE 0SW 100NW. 34 KT...300NE 100SE 250SW 300NW. FORECAST VALID 27/0000Z 36.2N 40.9W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT...150NE 100SE 100SW 250NW. 34 KT...350NE 150SE 250SW 350NW. FORECAST VALID 28/0000Z 36.9N 43.8W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT...150NE 100SE 100SW 250NW. 34 KT...350NE 150SE 250SW 350NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 29/0000Z 36.5N 47.3W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 30/0000Z 36.5N 49.0W...SUBTROPICAL STORM MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 33.1N 47.1W NEXT ADVISORY AT 25/0900Z $$ FORECASTER ZELINSKY
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Tropical Depression Kirk Graphics
2018-09-24 10:34:38| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Mon, 24 Sep 2018 08:34:38 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Mon, 24 Sep 2018 09:22:03 GMT
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Tropical Depression Kirk Forecast Discussion Number 8
2018-09-24 10:33:06| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 AM AST Mon Sep 24 2018 632 WTNT42 KNHC 240833 TCDAT2 Tropical Depression Kirk Discussion Number 8 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122018 500 AM AST Mon Sep 24 2018 After having a minimal amount of deep convection late yesterday, Kirk is now producing some thunderstorm activity in fragmented bands around the estimated center. However, earlier ASCAT data and low cloud motion suggest that the circulation resembles a sharp trough instead of a closed low that is necessary for a tropical cyclone. Hopefully more visible satellite images and additional scatterometer data will help better assess the circulation and status of Kirk. For now, advisories are being maintained on the system, and the initial intensity is held at 30 kt based on the earlier ASCAT data and a blend of the Dvorak estimates. Kirk is moving very quickly to the west at about 21 kt, which is likely the reason why the system has been struggling. A continued westward motion but at a decreasing forward speed is expected during the next two to three days while the cyclone remains on the south side of a low- to mid-level ridge. After that time, a large deep-layer low pressure system over the central Atlantic should cause Kirk to gain more latitude. The NHC track forecast is largely an update of the previous one, and remains near the southern side of the guidance envelope near the GFS and ECMWF models. This forecast takes Kirk toward the Lesser Antilles in 3 to 4 days and interests there should monitor the progress of this system. Although Kirk will be moving over warmer SSTs and remain in relatively moist conditions, its fast forward speed will likely limit the system from strengthening significantly during the next few days, so only a little intensification is predicted. The global models show a notable increase in westerly shear when Kirk reaches the eastern Caribbean Sea in about 4 days, and that should cause weakening and possibly even dissipation by the end of the forecast period. The NHC intensity forecast lies near the lower side of the guidance envelope, in best agreement with the NOAA HCCA model. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 24/0900Z 9.5N 37.4W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 24/1800Z 9.9N 40.5W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 25/0600Z 10.2N 44.6W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 25/1800Z 10.5N 48.4W 35 KT 40 MPH 48H 26/0600Z 10.9N 51.7W 40 KT 45 MPH 72H 27/0600Z 12.1N 57.1W 40 KT 45 MPH 96H 28/0600Z 13.2N 61.5W 35 KT 40 MPH 120H 29/0600Z 14.0N 66.0W 30 KT 35 MPH $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
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Summary for Tropical Depression Kirk (AT2/AL122018)
2018-09-24 10:32:37| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...KIRK MOVING QUICKLY WESTWARD... As of 5:00 AM AST Mon Sep 24 the center of Kirk was located near 9.5, -37.4 with movement W at 24 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1007 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.
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Tropical Depression Kirk Public Advisory Number 8
2018-09-24 10:32:37| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 AM AST Mon Sep 24 2018 428 WTNT32 KNHC 240832 TCPAT2 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Kirk Advisory Number 8 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122018 500 AM AST Mon Sep 24 2018 ...KIRK MOVING QUICKLY WESTWARD... SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...9.5N 37.4W ABOUT 950 MI...1530 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERNMOST CABO VERDE ISLANDS ABOUT 1615 MI...2600 KM E OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 24 MPH...39 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Kirk was located near latitude 9.5 North, longitude 37.4 West. The depression is moving toward the west near 24 mph (39 km/h), and this fast motion is expected to continue for another day or so. A decrease in forward speed is expected by Wednesday. Maximum sustained winds remain near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Although slight strengthening is forecast during the next few days, it is possible that Kirk could degenerate into a trough of low pressure during the next day or two while it moves quickly across the tropical central Atlantic. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
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