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Summary for Subtropical Depression Leslie (AT3/AL132018)
2018-09-25 10:37:46| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...LESLIE EXPECTED TO BECOME A POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE BY TONIGHT... As of 5:00 AM AST Tue Sep 25 the center of Leslie was located near 31.9, -46.2 with movement SE at 8 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1007 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.
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Subtropical Depression Leslie Public Advisory Number 8
2018-09-25 10:37:46| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 AM AST Tue Sep 25 2018 978 WTNT33 KNHC 250837 TCPAT3 BULLETIN Subtropical Depression Leslie Advisory Number 8 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132018 500 AM AST Tue Sep 25 2018 ...LESLIE EXPECTED TO BECOME A POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE BY TONIGHT... SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...31.9N 46.2W ABOUT 1165 MI...1870 KM WSW OF THE AZORES MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...SE OR 140 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Subtropical Depression Leslie was located near latitude 31.9 North, longitude 46.2 West. The subtropical depression is moving toward the southeast near 8 mph (13 km/h). A faster east to northeast motion is expected later today and Wednesday, followed by a turn to the north by Wednesday night. Maximum sustained winds remain near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Leslie is expected to lose its subtropical characteristics by tonight. Strengthening as an post-tropical cyclone is expected, and Leslie is forecast to become a large and powerful post-tropical cyclone by Wednesday with winds approaching hurricane force. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
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Subtropical Depression Leslie Forecast Discussion Number 8
2018-09-25 10:37:46| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 AM AST Tue Sep 25 2018 977 WTNT43 KNHC 250837 TCDAT3 Subtropical Depression Leslie Discussion Number 8 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132018 500 AM AST Tue Sep 25 2018 No significant changes have occurred with Leslie overnight. Deep convection is generally confined to the eastern half of the circulation as dry air continues to wrap into the western portion of the cyclone. Satellite images indicate that the circulation has become stretched from north to south, likely due to the approach of a cold front that is currently located a few hundred miles to the northwest of Leslie. The initial intensity is held at 30 kt based on the earlier ASCAT data. The cold front is expected to merge with Leslie by tonight, causing extratropical transition. While transitioning, Leslie is forecast to strengthen for a couple of days due to significant baroclinic forcing, and the NHC intensity forecast takes the peak winds just below hurricane force at 36 and 48 hours. Later in the week, the extratropical system is expected to cut off and gradually lose its frontal features. Although this will likely cause some weakening, it should also allow the system to regain subtropical characteristics. The NHC intensity forecast is fairly similar to the previous one and near the IVCN consensus model. This forecast is also in fairly good agreement with the GFS and ECMWF models, which are usually reliable intensity models for large subtropical systems like Leslie. Based on the latest guidance, Leslie is now expected to transition back to a subtropical cyclone in 96 hours. Leslie has jogged to the southeast during the past several hours, but an eastward to northeastward motion is expected during the next day or so as Leslie makes its extratropical transition. After that time, a turn to the north is expected followed by a slow westward motion when Leslie cuts off from the mid-latitude flow. The models are in fairly good agreement on this looping motion, and the NHC track forecast follows the various consensus aids. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 25/0900Z 31.9N 46.2W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 25/1800Z 32.1N 44.8W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 26/0600Z 32.7N 41.9W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 36H 26/1800Z 34.5N 40.5W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 48H 27/0600Z 36.1N 41.1W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 72H 28/0600Z 36.0N 45.0W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 96H 29/0600Z 35.3N 48.2W 55 KT 65 MPH...SUBTROPICAL STORM 120H 30/0600Z 35.0N 50.0W 50 KT 60 MPH $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
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Subtropical Depression Leslie Wind Speed Probabilities Number 8
2018-09-25 10:37:46| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC TUE SEP 25 2018 999 FONT13 KNHC 250837 PWSAT3 SUBTROPICAL DEPRESSION LESLIE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 8 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132018 0900 UTC TUE SEP 25 2018 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF SUBTROPICAL DEPRESSION LESLIE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 31.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 46.2 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
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Subtropical Depression Leslie Forecast Advisory Number 8
2018-09-25 10:37:14| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC TUE SEP 25 2018 711 WTNT23 KNHC 250837 TCMAT3 SUBTROPICAL DEPRESSION LESLIE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 8 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132018 0900 UTC TUE SEP 25 2018 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. SUBTROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 31.9N 46.2W AT 25/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE SOUTHEAST OR 140 DEGREES AT 7 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. 12 FT SEAS..240NE 150SE 150SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 31.9N 46.2W AT 25/0900Z AT 25/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 32.2N 46.9W FORECAST VALID 25/1800Z 32.1N 44.8W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 0NE 0SE 0SW 240NW. FORECAST VALID 26/0600Z 32.7N 41.9W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 0NE 0SE 0SW 120NW. 34 KT... 0NE 150SE 180SW 360NW. FORECAST VALID 26/1800Z 34.5N 40.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 0NE 0SE 90SW 120NW. 34 KT...270NE 180SE 240SW 360NW. FORECAST VALID 27/0600Z 36.1N 41.1W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT...150NE 100SE 180SW 240NW. 34 KT...270NE 180SE 270SW 360NW. FORECAST VALID 28/0600Z 36.0N 45.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT...120NE 90SE 90SW 150NW. 34 KT...240NE 180SE 270SW 300NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 29/0600Z 35.3N 48.2W...SUBTROPICAL STORM MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 30/0600Z 35.0N 50.0W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 31.9N 46.2W NEXT ADVISORY AT 25/1500Z $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
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