je.st
news
Tag: depression
Summary for Tropical Depression Rosa (EP5/EP202018)
2018-10-02 10:51:18| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...HEAVY RAINFALL SPREADING NORTHWARD ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO AND THE DESERT SOUTHWEST... ...LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODING AND DANGEROUS DEBRIS FLOWS AND LANDSLIDES POSSIBLE... As of 3:00 AM MDT Tue Oct 2 the center of Rosa was located near 29.3, -114.9 with movement NNE at 10 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1003 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.
Tags: summary
rosa
tropical
depression
Tropical Depression Rosa Forecast Advisory Number 29
2018-10-02 10:51:18| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0900 UTC TUE OCT 02 2018 194 WTPZ25 KNHC 020851 TCMEP5 TROPICAL DEPRESSION ROSA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 29 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP202018 0900 UTC TUE OCT 02 2018 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS DISCONTINUED ALL WATCHES AND WARNINGS. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. INTERESTS IN THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA AND NORTHWESTERN SONORA SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF ROSA. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 29.3N 114.9W AT 02/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR 30 DEGREES AT 9 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1003 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 29.3N 114.9W AT 02/0900Z AT 02/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 28.9N 115.1W FORECAST VALID 02/1800Z 31.8N 114.0W...POST-TROP/INLAND MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 03/0600Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 29.3N 114.9W NEXT ADVISORY AT 02/1500Z $$ FORECASTER BROWN
Tags: number
rosa
advisory
tropical
Tropical Depression Rosa Public Advisory Number 29
2018-10-02 10:51:18| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 300 AM MDT Tue Oct 02 2018 192 WTPZ35 KNHC 020851 TCPEP5 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Rosa Advisory Number 29 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP202018 300 AM MDT Tue Oct 02 2018 ...HEAVY RAINFALL SPREADING NORTHWARD ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO AND THE DESERT SOUTHWEST... ...LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODING AND DANGEROUS DEBRIS FLOWS AND LANDSLIDES POSSIBLE... SUMMARY OF 300 AM MDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...29.3N 114.9W ABOUT 105 MI...170 KM N OF PUNTA EUGENIA MEXICO ABOUT 120 MI...190 KM S OF SAN FELIPE MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 30 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The government of Mexico has discontinued all watches and warnings. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. Interests in the northern and central Baja California peninsula and northwestern Sonora should continue to monitor the progress of Rosa. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 300 AM MDT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Rosa was located near latitude 29.3 North, longitude 114.9 West. The depression is moving toward the north-northeast near 10 mph (17 km/h). This motion with an increase in forward speed is expected today. On the forecast track, the center of Rosa will move across the Baja California peninsula and into the northern Gulf of California this morning. Rosa's remnants are then expected to move across the Desert Southwest by tonight. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional weakening is forecast and Rosa is expected to become a remnant low over northern Mexico or the southwestern United States later today. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1003 mb (29.62 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- RAINFALL: Rosa is expected to produce the following total rainfall accumulations into Wednesday: Baja California and northwestern Sonora: 3 to 6 inches, isolated 10 inches. Central and Southern Arizona: 2 to 4 inches. Isolated 6 inch totals are possible in the mountains of Central Arizona. Rest of the Desert Southwest, Central Rockies, and Great Basin: 1 to 2 inches, isolated 4 inches. These rainfall amounts may produce life-threatening flash flooding. Dangerous debris flows and landslides are also possible in mountainous terrain. WIND: Tropical-storm-force wind gusts are possible over the central portions of the Baja California peninsula this morning, especially over higher elevations. SURF: Swells generated by Rosa will affect portions of the coasts of southwestern Mexico, most of the west coast of the Baja California peninsula, and southern California through today. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 900 AM MDT. $$ Forecaster Brown
Tags: number
public
rosa
advisory
Tropical Depression Twenty-E Graphics
2018-09-25 10:45:10| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 25 Sep 2018 08:45:10 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 25 Sep 2018 09:28:11 GMT
Tags: graphics
tropical
depression
tropical depression
Tropical Depression Twenty-E Forecast Discussion Number 1
2018-09-25 10:43:46| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 300 AM MDT Tue Sep 25 2018 831 WTPZ45 KNHC 250843 TCDEP5 Tropical Depression Twenty-E Discussion Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP202018 300 AM MDT Tue Sep 25 2018 The low pressure system that NHC has been monitoring off the coast of southwestern Mexico has now become a tropical depression, the twentieth of the eastern North Pacific 2018 season. ASCAT data from around 0400 UTC indicated that the system had a well-defined center and maximum winds in the 25-30 kt range. In addition, satellite images show deep convection increasing in coverage and intensity near the center. The initial wind speed is set at 30 kt, based on the ASCAT data, but this is a little below the latest Dvorak estimate from TAFB. Since the depression has only recently formed, the initial motion is an uncertain 280/7 kt. Mid-level ridging to the north of the system should keep the depression on a westward to west- northwestward path at about the same forward speed for the next few days. Thereafter, the models show the ridge breaking down due to a large cut off deep-layer low moving toward the west coast of the United States. In response, the cyclone is expected to turn to the northwest this weekend. The models agree on this overall scenario, but there is a fair amount of spread by the end of the forecast period. The NHC track forecast lies near the middle of the guidance envelope and close to the best performing models, the consensus aids. The environmental conditions appear favorable for the depression to strengthen. SSTs are expected to remain quite warm beneath the cyclone for the next several days while vertical wind shear values are around 10 kt or less. These conditions combined with a moist airmass should allow for at least steady strengthening during the next 3 to 4 days. Some weakening is possible by the end of the forecast period due to slightly cooler SSTs and an increase in shear. The NHC intensity forecast shows a slower rate of strengthening than the guidance, since the system is still in the developing stage, but predicts peak winds near the IVCN consensus model. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 25/0900Z 14.5N 107.2W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 25/1800Z 14.9N 108.2W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 26/0600Z 15.5N 109.8W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 26/1800Z 15.8N 111.2W 55 KT 65 MPH 48H 27/0600Z 16.1N 112.6W 70 KT 80 MPH 72H 28/0600Z 16.9N 115.6W 90 KT 105 MPH 96H 29/0600Z 18.3N 118.1W 90 KT 105 MPH 120H 30/0600Z 20.7N 119.5W 85 KT 100 MPH $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
Tags: number
discussion
tropical
depression
Sites : [676] [677] [678] [679] [680] [681] [682] [683] [684] [685] [686] [687] [688] [689] [690] [691] [692] [693] [694] [695] next »