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Subtropical Depression Leslie Graphics
2018-09-25 05:21:51| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 25 Sep 2018 03:21:51 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 25 Sep 2018 03:22:00 GMT
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Subtropical Depression Leslie Forecast Discussion Number 7
2018-09-25 04:33:13| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 PM AST Mon Sep 24 2018 574 WTNT43 KNHC 250233 TCDAT3 Subtropical Depression Leslie Discussion Number 7 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132018 1100 PM AST Mon Sep 24 2018 Leslie's appearance in satellite imagery hasn't changed much this evening. Deep convection is mainly occuring in bands well displaced to the southeast of the cyclone's center, and recent ASCAT data indicated that the maximum winds have decreased to near 30 kt, with the highest wind occuring in those bands. All indications are that Leslie will undergo a complicated transition over the next several days. Little change is expected with Leslie until it becomes post-tropical in about 24 hours. After that time, all of the global models suggest that Leslie will quickly strengthen as a result of substantial baroclinic forcing, likely reaching a peak intensity sometime between 48 and 72 h. At the same time, the cyclone will likely undergo a classic transition from frontal low to warm seclusion while the wind field rapidly expands, with 34-kt (gale-force) winds reaching several hundred miles from the cyclone's center. By 96 h, the models indicate that Leslie will once again become cut-off from the mid-latitude flow, and could begin to re-acquire subtropical or tropical characteristics. While each of the global models handles the exact details of this complex evolution a little differently, confidence is increasing that Leslie will become a powerful extratropical cyclone over the central Atlantic over the next few of days. The NHC intensity forecast has been increased between 36 and 96 h, and is near a average of the global and regional dynamical model tracker output. The depression is currently moving slowly eastward with an initial motion of 090/3 kt. The guidance is in good agreement that Leslie will accelerate eastward as it becomes more embedded within an approaching frontal zone. A northward turn is expected by mid-week, followed by a bend back toward the west by the end of the week as Leslie strengthens, occludes, and eventually cuts off from the mid-latitude flow to the north. The NHC track forecast has not been significantly changed, and is near the GFEX and HCCA consensus aids at most forecast hours. However, it should be noted that spread in the guidance is high, especially by the end of the forecast period, so confidence in the track forecast at that time is low. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 25/0300Z 33.1N 47.1W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 25/1200Z 32.9N 45.6W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 26/0000Z 33.1N 43.2W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 36H 26/1200Z 34.5N 41.1W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 48H 27/0000Z 36.2N 40.9W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 72H 28/0000Z 36.9N 43.8W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 96H 29/0000Z 36.5N 47.3W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 120H 30/0000Z 36.5N 49.0W 50 KT 60 MPH...SUBTROPICAL STORM $$ Forecaster Zelinsky
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Summary for Subtropical Depression Leslie (AT3/AL132018)
2018-09-25 04:32:42| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...LESLIE EXPECTED TO BECOME A POWERFUL POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE BEGINNING TUESDAY... As of 11:00 PM AST Mon Sep 24 the center of Leslie was located near 33.1, -47.1 with movement E at 3 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1007 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.
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Subtropical Depression Leslie Public Advisory Number 7
2018-09-25 04:32:42| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 PM AST Mon Sep 24 2018 403 WTNT33 KNHC 250232 TCPAT3 BULLETIN Subtropical Depression Leslie Advisory Number 7 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132018 1100 PM AST Mon Sep 24 2018 ...LESLIE EXPECTED TO BECOME A POWERFUL POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE BEGINNING TUESDAY... SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...33.1N 47.1W ABOUT 1175 MI...1895 KM W OF THE AZORES MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...E OR 90 DEGREES AT 3 MPH...6 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Subtropical Depression Leslie was located near latitude 33.1 North, longitude 47.1 West. The depression is moving toward the east near 3 mph (6 km/h). A faster eastward motion is expected to begin on Tuesday, followed by a turn toward the north on Wednesday. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Leslie is forecast to become post-tropical on Tuesday. Strengthening is likely after that time, and Leslie is expected to become a large and powerful post-tropical cyclone by Wednesday with winds approaching hurricane force. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Zelinsky
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Subtropical Depression Leslie Wind Speed Probabilities Number 7
2018-09-25 04:32:42| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC TUE SEP 25 2018 401 FONT13 KNHC 250232 PWSAT3 SUBTROPICAL DEPRESSION LESLIE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 7 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132018 0300 UTC TUE SEP 25 2018 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF SUBTROPICAL DEPRESSION LESLIE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 33.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 47.1 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER ZELINSKY
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