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Tropical Depression Four-E Forecast Discussion Number 1
2018-06-14 22:35:47| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 400 PM CDT Thu Jun 14 2018 ZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM Tropical Depression Four-E Discussion Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP042018 400 PM CDT Thu Jun 14 2018 Overnight scatterometer data indicate that the circulation of the system was open on the northwestern side. High-resolution GOES-16 1-min visible data indicate that the low is now closed, with a well-enough defined circulation center. Since there is plenty of banded convection, this system is being designated as a tropical depression, and the initial wind speed of 30 kt is based off the overnight scatterometer data. The initial motion estimate is an uncertain 325/5 kt. A weak mid-level ridge over Mexico is forecast to break down by tomorrow, leaving the depression in an area of light steering currents. Much of the model guidance linger the system just south of the coast of Mexico for the next couple of days until the cyclone gets drawn northward into a larger trough currently seen over the western Gulf of Mexico. There is considerable uncertainty in the timing of this poleward motion, however, with the UKMET, HMON, and COAMPS-TC models faster than the rest of the guidance. This seems like a pretty clear case of staying near the model consensus, given the weak steering flow that makes it nearly impossible to choose one model over another one. Thus, the official forecast shows a slow northward motion, near the eastern Pacific model consensus TVCE, and it should be emphasized that the forecast timing of landfall is subject to large changes in the future. The system is not particularly well organized at the moment, with a few swirls seen in the visible imagery rotating around the larger gyre. After the low consolidates, light-to-moderate shear with very warm waters, and high mid-level humidity should lead to steady intensification. This is a tricky forecast, however, since land is so close to the north, which would prevent much strengthening. The official forecast is a blend of the statistical-dynamical guidance and the regional hurricane guidance, a bit lower than the model consensus since the HWRF keeps the cyclone well offshore (unlike the official prediction), leading to a stronger storm. It has been an active early part of the eastern Pacific season. This is the 2nd earliest 4th tropical cyclone on record in the basin during the satellite era (1966-present), only 6 hours behind the previous record in 1974. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 14/2100Z 15.5N 100.1W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 15/0600Z 16.1N 100.5W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 15/1800Z 16.3N 100.6W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 16/0600Z 16.5N 100.5W 40 KT 45 MPH 48H 16/1800Z 16.7N 100.3W 50 KT 60 MPH 72H 17/1800Z 17.1N 100.3W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND 96H 18/1800Z 17.5N 100.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 19/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Blake NNNN
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Summary for Tropical Depression Four-E (EP4/EP042018)
2018-06-14 22:33:22| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...TROPICAL STORM WATCH ISSUED FOR A PORTION OF THE MEXICAN COAST... As of 4:00 PM CDT Thu Jun 14 the center of Four-E was located near 15.5, -100.1 with movement NW at 6 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1008 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.
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Tropical Depression Four-E Public Advisory Number 1
2018-06-14 22:33:22| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 400 PM CDT Thu Jun 14 2018 000 WTPZ34 KNHC 142033 TCPEP4 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Four-E Advisory Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP042018 400 PM CDT Thu Jun 14 2018 ...TROPICAL STORM WATCH ISSUED FOR A PORTION OF THE MEXICAN COAST... SUMMARY OF 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...15.5N 100.1W ABOUT 100 MI...155 KM S OF ACAPULCO MEXICO ABOUT 180 MI...290 KM SSE OF ZIHUATANEJO MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 325 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The government of Mexico has issued a Tropical Storm Watch for the coast of Mexico from Tecpan de Galeana to Punta Maldonado. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Tecpan de Galeana to Punta Maldonado. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 400 PM CDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Four-E was located near latitude 15.5 North, longitude 100.1 West. The depression is moving toward the northwest near 6 mph (9 km/h) and this motion is expected to continue through overnight. The cyclone should move much slower on Friday and Saturday very near the coast of southern Mexico, and could move inland on Sunday. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Gradual strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1008 mb (29.77 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- RAINFALL: The depression is forecast to produce 4 to 6 inches of rainfall along the Guerrero coast, including the city of Acapulco, with isolated higher amounts approaching 8 inches possible. These rains could produce life-threatening flash floods and mud slides. Farther inland across the state of Guerrero, rainfall amounts of 1 to 2 inches with isolated amounts of 4 inches are forecast. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area by Saturday afternoon. SURF: Swells generated by the depression are affecting portions of the coast of southern Mexico. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 700 PM CDT. Next complete advisory at 1000 PM CDT. $$ Forecaster Blake
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Tropical Depression Four-E Forecast Advisory Number 1
2018-06-14 22:33:22| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 2100 UTC THU JUN 14 2018 000 WTPZ24 KNHC 142033 TCMEP4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR-E FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042018 2100 UTC THU JUN 14 2018 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR THE COAST OF MEXICO FROM TECPAN DE GALEANA TO PUNTA MALDONADO. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * TECPAN DE GALEANA TO PUNTA MALDONADO. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA... GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.5N 100.1W AT 14/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 325 DEGREES AT 5 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1008 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.5N 100.1W AT 14/2100Z AT 14/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.3N 100.0W FORECAST VALID 15/0600Z 16.1N 100.5W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 15/1800Z 16.3N 100.6W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 16/0600Z 16.5N 100.5W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 20NW. FORECAST VALID 16/1800Z 16.7N 100.3W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 20SE 10SW 10NW. 34 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 17/1800Z 17.1N 100.3W...INLAND MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 20NE 30SE 20SW 20NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 18/1800Z 17.5N 100.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 19/1800Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.5N 100.1W NEXT ADVISORY AT 15/0300Z $$ FORECASTER BLAKE
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Tropical Depression Four-E Wind Speed Probabilities Number 1
2018-06-14 22:33:22| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 2100 UTC THU JUN 14 2018 000 FOPZ14 KNHC 142033 PWSEP4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR-E WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042018 2100 UTC THU JUN 14 2018 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR-E WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 100.1 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 15N 105W 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) BARRA NAVIDAD 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) MANZANILLO 34 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) L CARDENAS 34 1 1( 2) 3( 5) 6(11) 7(18) 3(21) X(21) L CARDENAS 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) ZIHUATANEJO 34 1 5( 6) 7(13) 8(21) 9(30) 2(32) X(32) ZIHUATANEJO 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) ZIHUATANEJO 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) 15N 100W 34 3 5( 8) 6(14) 6(20) 7(27) 3(30) X(30) 15N 100W 50 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 3( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) 15N 100W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) ACAPULCO 34 4 8(12) 13(25) 10(35) 8(43) 2(45) X(45) ACAPULCO 50 X X( X) 3( 3) 4( 7) 4(11) X(11) X(11) ACAPULCO 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) P MALDONADO 34 X 2( 2) 4( 6) 8(14) 8(22) 4(26) X(26) P MALDONADO 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) X( 4) P MALDONADO 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) P ANGEL 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4) 2( 6) X( 6) HUATULCO 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) $$ FORECASTER BLAKE
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