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Tropical Depression Carlotta Forecast Advisory Number 15
2018-06-18 10:36:14| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0900 UTC MON JUN 18 2018 000 WTPZ24 KNHC 180836 TCMEP4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION CARLOTTA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 15 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042018 0900 UTC MON JUN 18 2018 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.7N 102.6W AT 18/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 305 DEGREES AT 4 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1008 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.7N 102.6W AT 18/0900Z AT 18/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.5N 102.4W FORECAST VALID 18/1800Z 18.1N 103.1W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 19/0600Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.7N 102.6W NEXT ADVISORY AT 18/1500Z $$ FORECASTER BERG
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Tropical Depression Carlotta Graphics
2018-06-18 04:38:13| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Mon, 18 Jun 2018 02:38:13 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Mon, 18 Jun 2018 03:23:13 GMT
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Tropical Depression Carlotta Wind Speed Probabilities Number 14
2018-06-18 04:37:11| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0300 UTC MON JUN 18 2018 000 FOPZ14 KNHC 180237 PWSEP4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION CARLOTTA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 14 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042018 0300 UTC MON JUN 18 2018 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION CARLOTTA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 102.2 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 25 KTS...30 MPH...45 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER STEWART
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Summary for Tropical Depression Carlotta (EP4/EP042018)
2018-06-18 04:37:09| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...CARLOTTA EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE BY MONDAY MORNING JUST SOUTH OF MEXICO... ...HEAVY RAINS AND MUDSLIDES STILL POSSIBLE... As of 10:00 PM CDT Sun Jun 17 the center of Carlotta was located near 17.2, -102.2 with movement WNW at 5 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1007 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 30 mph.
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Tropical Depression Carlotta Public Advisory Number 14
2018-06-18 04:37:09| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1000 PM CDT Sun Jun 17 2018 000 WTPZ34 KNHC 180237 TCPEP4 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Carlotta Advisory Number 14 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP042018 1000 PM CDT Sun Jun 17 2018 ...CARLOTTA EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE BY MONDAY MORNING JUST SOUTH OF MEXICO... ...HEAVY RAINS AND MUDSLIDES STILL POSSIBLE... SUMMARY OF 1000 PM CDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...17.2N 102.2W ABOUT 55 MI...90 KM S OF LAZARO CARDENAS MEXICO ABOUT 50 MI...85 KM SW OF ZIHUATANEJO MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1000 PM CDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Carlotta was located near latitude 17.2 North, longitude 102.2 West. The depression is moving toward the west-northwest near 5 mph (7 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue through Monday. On the forecast track, the center will be moving parallel to but just offshore of the coast of Mexico through Monday. Maximum sustained winds remain near 30 mph (45 km/h) with higher gusts. Carlotta is expected to degenerate into a remnant low by Monday morning. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- RAINFALL: Carlotta is forecast to produce 3 to 6 inches of rainfall along the Guerrero, Michoacan and Colima coasts, with isolated higher amounts of 10 inches possible. These rains are likely to produce life-threatening flash floods and mudslides, especially in areas of higher terrain. Elsewhere across the states of Guerrero and Michoacan, rainfall amounts of 1 to 2 inches with isolated amounts of 4 inches are forecast. SURF: Swells generated by Carlotta are affecting portions of the coast of southern Mexico. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 400 AM CDT. $$ Forecaster Stewart
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