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Tropical Depression Carlotta Public Advisory Number 12A
2018-06-17 20:04:05| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 100 PM CDT Sun Jun 17 2018 000 WTPZ34 KNHC 171803 TCPEP4 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Carlotta Intermediate Advisory Number 12A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP042018 100 PM CDT Sun Jun 17 2018 ...CARLOTTA WEAKENS TO A DEPRESSION... SUMMARY OF 100 PM CDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...17.2N 101.6W ABOUT 35 MI...55 KM S OF ZIHUATANEJO MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The government of Mexico has discontinued the Tropical Storm Warning from Tecpan De Galeana to Lazaro Cardenas. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: There are no coastal watches or warning in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 100 PM CDT (1800 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Carlotta was estimated to be near near latitude 17.2 North, longitude 101.6 West. Carlotta is moving toward the northwest near 7 mph (11 km/h) and this general motion is expected to continue through Monday. On the forecast track, the small core of Carlotta or its remnant should move inland over southern Mexico on Monday. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Carlotta could dissipate later today. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- RAINFALL: Carlotta is forecast to produce 3 to 6 inches of rainfall along the Guerrero and Michoacan coasts, including the city of Acapulco, with isolated higher amounts of 10 inches possible. These rains are likely to produce life-threatening flash floods and mudslides, especially in areas of higher terrain. Elsewhere across the states of Guerrero and Michoacan, rainfall amounts of 1 to 2 inches with isolated amounts of 4 inches are forecast. SURF: Swells generated by Carlotta are affecting portions of the coast of southern Mexico. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 400 PM CDT. $$ Forecaster Pasch
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Tropical Depression Four-E Graphics
2018-06-15 16:40:37| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Fri, 15 Jun 2018 14:40:37 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Fri, 15 Jun 2018 14:40:38 GMT
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Tropical Depression Four-E Forecast Discussion Number 4
2018-06-15 16:40:32| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1000 AM CDT Fri Jun 15 2018 000 WTPZ44 KNHC 151440 TCDEP4 Tropical Depression Four-E Discussion Number 4 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP042018 1000 AM CDT Fri Jun 15 2018 Radar data from Acapulco, plus satellite and microwave imagery, indicate that the depression has either reformed and/or is moving slowly toward the north-northeast. Overall, the satellite presentation has improved over the past several hours, with a large band of convection in the southeastern quadrant. The initial wind speed remains 30 kt for this advisory, and perhaps scatterometer data will give us a better look at the wind field this afternoon. Since the center has shifted to the north-northeast, the timing of landfall along the coast of Mexico has accelerated, with the bulk of the guidance now suggesting a Saturday landfall rather than Sunday. The official forecast now goes with the faster scenario, close to a cluster of the GFS ensemble mean and HMON models and the eastern Pacific track consensus aid TVCE. While the environmental conditions still appear to be conducive for strengthening, the depression has less time to intensify because of the faster landfall timing. Consequently, the intensity forecast is reduced from the previous one, but is a little higher than the model consensus. Although this system is expected to have only a low wind threat, there is a significant risk of life-threatening flash floods and mudslides over the southern parts of Guerrero and Oaxaca due to moist southwesterly flow intersecting the southern Sierra Madre mountains. Please see products issued by your local weather office for more details. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 15/1500Z 15.8N 99.7W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 16/0000Z 16.1N 99.4W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 16/1200Z 16.5N 99.0W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 17/0000Z 16.8N 98.7W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 48H 17/1200Z 17.2N 98.6W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND 72H 18/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Blake
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Tropical Depression Four-E Wind Speed Probabilities Number 4
2018-06-15 16:40:04| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1500 UTC FRI JUN 15 2018 000 FOPZ14 KNHC 151439 PWSEP4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR-E WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 4 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042018 1500 UTC FRI JUN 15 2018 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR-E WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 99.7 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 15N 100W 34 6 3( 9) 1(10) 2(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) ACAPULCO 34 11 15(26) 4(30) 1(31) X(31) X(31) X(31) ACAPULCO 50 X 2( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) P MALDONADO 34 11 23(34) 6(40) 3(43) X(43) X(43) X(43) P MALDONADO 50 1 3( 4) 2( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) P MALDONADO 64 X 1( 1) X( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) P ANGEL 34 X 2( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) HUATULCO 34 X 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) $$ FORECASTER BLAKE
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Summary for Tropical Depression Four-E (EP4/EP042018)
2018-06-15 16:39:33| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...DEPRESSION PRODUCING TORRENTIAL RAINFALL OVER GUERRERO AND OAXACA... As of 10:00 AM CDT Fri Jun 15 the center of Four-E was located near 15.8, -99.7 with movement NNE at 3 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1007 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.
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