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Tropical Depression Carlotta Forecast Discussion Number 14
2018-06-18 04:37:09| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1000 PM CDT Sun Jun 17 2018 000 WTPZ44 KNHC 180237 TCDEP4 Tropical Depression Carlotta Discussion Number 14 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP042018 1000 PM CDT Sun Jun 17 2018 Visible satellite imagery indicates that Carlotta has maintained a small but robust low-level circulation, with strong convection bursting over and south of the well-defined center. Satellite intensity estimates are T2.0/30 kt from TAFB and T2.3/33 kt from UW-CIMSS ADT. Based on these data, the intensity is being maintained at 25 kt and Carlotta is still classified as a tropical cyclone. The initial motion estimate is a slightly slower 295/04 kt. The recent development of deep convection has likely amplified the vertical circulation, resulting in the forward motion being slightly retarded by the north-northwesterly upper-level winds. However, a stout ridge to the north of the small cyclone should keep the system moving in a general west-northwestward direction just offshore the coast of Mexico for the next day or so. Pulsing convection with tops to near -80C has been occurring since the previous advisory. However, vertical wind shear of around 15 kt along with drier mid-level air coming in off of mainland Mexico are expected to steadily weaken the system, resulting in degeneration into a remnant low on Monday. The main threat from Carlotta continues to be heavy rains over the southern portions of the states of Guerrero, Michoacan, and Colima. These rains, which will likely be enhanced by moist upslope flow over the southern Sierra Madre mountains of Mexico, could produce life-threatening flash floods and mudslides. Consult products issued by your national meteorological service. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 18/0300Z 17.2N 102.2W 25 KT 30 MPH 12H 18/1200Z 17.4N 102.7W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 24H 19/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Stewart
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Tropical Depression Carlotta Forecast Advisory Number 14
2018-06-18 04:36:41| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0300 UTC MON JUN 18 2018 000 WTPZ24 KNHC 180236 TCMEP4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION CARLOTTA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 14 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042018 0300 UTC MON JUN 18 2018 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.2N 102.2W AT 18/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT 4 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT. 12 FT SEAS.. 0NE 30SE 0SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.2N 102.2W AT 18/0300Z AT 18/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.1N 102.0W FORECAST VALID 18/1200Z 17.4N 102.7W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 19/0000Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.2N 102.2W NEXT ADVISORY AT 18/0900Z $$ FORECASTER STEWART
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Tropical Depression Carlotta Graphics
2018-06-17 22:37:31| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sun, 17 Jun 2018 20:37:31 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 17 Jun 2018 21:23:17 GMT
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Tropical Depression Carlotta Forecast Discussion Number 13
2018-06-17 22:35:39| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 400 PM CDT Sun Jun 17 2018 000 WTPZ44 KNHC 172035 TCDEP4 Tropical Depression Carlotta Discussion Number 13 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP042018 400 PM CDT Sun Jun 17 2018 Data from a recent scatterometer pass indicated Carlotta still had a small circulation, but that it was quite weak with maximum winds near 25 kt. Persistent northerly shear continues to affect the depression. The system has lacked much organized deep convection for the past several hours and it is likely to degenerate into a remnant low overnight. Accordingly, the official forecast shows the system becoming post-tropical by early Monday. Based on the ASCAT observations, the center has been re-positioned a little to the southeast of the previous track. The initial motion estimate is now 300/6 kt. High pressure to the north of Carlotta should maintain a general west-northwestward track for the next day or two. The main threat from Carlotta continues to be heavy rains over the southern portions of the states of Guerrero, Michoacan, and Colima. These rains, which will likely be enhanced by moist upslope flow over the southern Sierra Madre mountains of Mexico, could produce life-threatening flash floods and mudslides. Consult products issued by your national meteorological service. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 17/2100Z 17.1N 101.9W 25 KT 30 MPH 12H 18/0600Z 17.5N 102.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 24H 18/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Pasch
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Summary for Tropical Depression Carlotta (EP4/EP042018)
2018-06-17 22:34:40| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...CARLOTTA EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE LATER TONIGHT... As of 4:00 PM CDT Sun Jun 17 the center of Carlotta was located near 17.1, -101.9 with movement WNW at 7 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1007 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 30 mph.
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