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Tropical Depression Four-E Public Advisory Number 4
2018-06-15 16:39:33| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1000 AM CDT Fri Jun 15 2018 000 WTPZ34 KNHC 151439 TCPEP4 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Four-E Advisory Number 4 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP042018 1000 AM CDT Fri Jun 15 2018 ...DEPRESSION PRODUCING TORRENTIAL RAINFALL OVER GUERRERO AND OAXACA... SUMMARY OF 1000 AM CDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...15.8N 99.7W ABOUT 75 MI...125 KM S OF ACAPULCO MEXICO ABOUT 80 MI...130 KM WSW OF PUNTA MALDONADO MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 15 DEGREES AT 3 MPH...6 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The government of Mexico has extended the Tropical Storm Warning for the coast of Mexico eastward to Lagunas de Chacahua. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Tecpan de Galeana to Lagunas de Chacahua A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected within the watch area, in this case within 12-24 hours. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1000 AM CDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Four-E was located near latitude 15.8 North, longitude 99.7 West. The depression is moving toward the north-northeast near 3 mph (6 km/h) and a slow northeastward motion is expected to begin later today. On the forecast track, the center of the depression is expected to make landfall on Saturday within the warning area and move farther inland on Sunday. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. The depression is forecast to become a tropical storm later today, quickly weaken after landfall on Saturday, and then dissipate on Sunday. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- RAINFALL: The depression is forecast to produce 3 to 6 inches of rainfall along the Guerrero and Oaxaca coasts, including the city of Acapulco, with isolated higher amounts of 10 inches possible. These rains are likely to produce life-threatening flash floods and mud slides, especially in areas of higher terrain. Farther inland across the states of Guerrero and Oaxaca, rainfall amounts of 1 to 2 inches with isolated amounts of 4 inches are forecast. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected within the warning area starting early Saturday. SURF: Swells generated by the depression are affecting portions of the coast of southern Mexico. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 100 PM CDT. Next complete advisory at 400 PM CDT. $$ Forecaster Blake
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Tropical Depression Bud Graphics
2018-06-15 16:38:56| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Fri, 15 Jun 2018 14:38:56 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Fri, 15 Jun 2018 15:25:38 GMT
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Tropical Depression Four-E Forecast Advisory Number 4
2018-06-15 16:38:33| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1500 UTC FRI JUN 15 2018 000 WTPZ24 KNHC 151438 TCMEP4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR-E FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 4 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042018 1500 UTC FRI JUN 15 2018 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS EXTENDED THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE COAST OF MEXICO EASTWARD TO LAGUNAS DE CHACAHUA. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * TECPAN DE GALEANA TO LAGUNAS DE CHACAHUA A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN 12 TO 24 HOURS. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.8N 99.7W AT 15/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR 15 DEGREES AT 3 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.8N 99.7W AT 15/1500Z AT 15/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.7N 99.8W FORECAST VALID 16/0000Z 16.1N 99.4W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 16/1200Z 16.5N 99.0W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 20NE 30SE 20SW 20NW. FORECAST VALID 17/0000Z 16.8N 98.7W...INLAND MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 17/1200Z 17.2N 98.6W...POST-TROP/INLAND MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 18/1200Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.8N 99.7W NEXT ADVISORY AT 15/2100Z $$ FORECASTER BLAKE
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Tropical Depression Bud Forecast Discussion Number 24
2018-06-15 16:38:03| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 900 AM MDT Fri Jun 15 2018 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 151437 TCDEP3 Tropical Depression Bud Discussion Number 24 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP032018 900 AM MDT Fri Jun 15 2018 Bud's satellite presentation consists of a swirl of low-level clouds with the limited deep convection displaced in a band well to the northwest of the center. Assuming gradual weakening since the ASCAT passes overnight, the initial intensity is set to 30 kt, with those winds likely found over the Gulf of California to the east of the center. The shear is expected to remain strong through landfall, and the cyclone should become a remnant low by 12 hours and then dissipate over the high terrain of the state of Sonora by early Saturday. The initial motion estimate is 360/10, and Bud should continue moving northward through dissipation between a mid-level ridge to the cyclone's east and an approaching longwave trough to its west. Although the low-level circulation of Bud is expected to dissipate on Saturday, the associated remnant moisture plume is expected to spread northward and northeastward into northwestern Mexico and the southwest U.S. through Saturday, resulting in significant rainfall and possible flash flooding across those areas. For further information on the heavy rainfall threat, please see products issued by your local weather service office. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 15/1500Z 25.3N 110.0W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 16/0000Z 27.2N 109.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND 24H 16/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Brennan/McElroy
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Tropical Depression Bud Wind Speed Probabilities Number 24
2018-06-15 16:37:05| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1500 UTC FRI JUN 15 2018 000 FOPZ13 KNHC 151436 PWSEP3 TROPICAL DEPRESSION BUD WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 24 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032018 1500 UTC FRI JUN 15 2018 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION BUD WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 25.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 110.0 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT HUATABAMPO 34 9 X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) $$ FORECASTER BRENNAN/MCELROY
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