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Tropical Depression Fifteen-E Graphics
2017-09-13 22:43:22| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Wed, 13 Sep 2017 20:43:22 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Wed, 13 Sep 2017 20:43:22 GMT
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Tropical Depression Fifteen-E Forecast Discussion Number 9
2017-09-13 22:34:10| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 PM PDT Wed Sep 13 2017 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 132033 TCDEP5 Tropical Depression Fifteen-E Discussion Number 9 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP152017 200 PM PDT Wed Sep 13 2017 The cloud pattern is still disorganized and the circulation appears to be somewhat elongated. Most of the deep convection is located to the southwest of the center due to some moderate northeasterly shear. Dvorak T-numbers have not changed and consequently, the initial intensity is kept at 30 kt. There are no obvious reasons why the cyclone will not intensify a little. The shear is forecast to decrease in a couple of days and the ocean is warm. On this basis, little change is anticipated during the next 12 hours or so and some slight strengthening is forecast thereafter, and the depression is still expected to become a tropical storm. The best estimate of the initial motion is toward the west or 275 degrees at 6 kt. The depression is embedded within light easterly flow south of a subtropical ridge. Global models indicate that the steering currents will weaken even more, and this flow will only produce a very slow westward motion through the next 3 days. After that time, the cyclone will probably begin to meander as the steering flow collapses completely. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 13/2100Z 15.1N 121.3W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 14/0600Z 15.2N 122.2W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 14/1800Z 15.4N 123.2W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 15/0600Z 15.5N 124.0W 35 KT 40 MPH 48H 15/1800Z 15.5N 125.0W 40 KT 45 MPH 72H 16/1800Z 15.5N 125.5W 45 KT 50 MPH 96H 17/1800Z 15.5N 125.5W 45 KT 50 MPH 120H 18/1800Z 16.0N 125.0W 45 KT 50 MPH $$ Forecaster Avila
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Summary for Tropical Depression Fifteen-E (EP5/EP152017)
2017-09-13 22:33:39| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...TROPICAL DEPRESSION MOVING SLOWLY WESTWARD WITH NO CHANGE IN STRENGTH... As of 2:00 PM PDT Wed Sep 13 the center of Fifteen-E was located near 15.1, -121.3 with movement W at 7 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1005 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.
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Tropical Depression Fifteen-E Public Advisory Number 9
2017-09-13 22:33:39| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 PM PDT Wed Sep 13 2017 000 WTPZ35 KNHC 132033 TCPEP5 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Fifteen-E Advisory Number 9 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP152017 200 PM PDT Wed Sep 13 2017 ...TROPICAL DEPRESSION MOVING SLOWLY WESTWARD WITH NO CHANGE IN STRENGTH... SUMMARY OF 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...15.1N 121.3W ABOUT 920 MI...1475 KM SW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 200 PM PDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Fifteen-E was located near latitude 15.1 North, longitude 121.3 West. The depression is moving toward the west near 7 mph (11 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue during the next couple of days. Maximum sustained winds remain near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. No significant change in strength is expected today, but the depression could become a tropical storm in a day or two. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 800 PM PDT. $$ Forecaster Avila
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Tropical Depression Fifteen-E Forecast Advisory Number 9
2017-09-13 22:33:39| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 2100 UTC WED SEP 13 2017 000 WTPZ25 KNHC 132033 TCMEP5 TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIFTEEN-E FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 9 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152017 2100 UTC WED SEP 13 2017 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.1N 121.3W AT 13/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 275 DEGREES AT 6 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.1N 121.3W AT 13/2100Z AT 13/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.0N 121.0W FORECAST VALID 14/0600Z 15.2N 122.2W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 14/1800Z 15.4N 123.2W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 30SE 0SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 15/0600Z 15.5N 124.0W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 30SE 0SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 15/1800Z 15.5N 125.0W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 40SE 0SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 16/1800Z 15.5N 125.5W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 17/1800Z 15.5N 125.5W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 18/1800Z 16.0N 125.0W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.1N 121.3W NEXT ADVISORY AT 14/0300Z $$ FORECASTER AVILA
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