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Tropical Depression Fifteen-E Graphics
2017-09-11 22:40:06| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Mon, 11 Sep 2017 20:40:06 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Mon, 11 Sep 2017 20:40:06 GMT
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Tropical Depression Fifteen-E Wind Speed Probabilities Number 1
2017-09-11 22:33:22| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 2100 UTC MON SEP 11 2017 000 FOPZ15 KNHC 112033 PWSEP5 TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIFTEEN-E WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152017 2100 UTC MON SEP 11 2017 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIFTEEN-E WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 112.3 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 25 KTS...30 MPH...45 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 15N 115W 34 1 10(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) 15N 120W 34 X X( X) 4( 4) 7(11) 5(16) 1(17) X(17) 15N 125W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) $$ FORECASTER LANDSEA
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Summary for Tropical Depression Fifteen-E (EP5/EP152017)
2017-09-11 22:33:21| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...A NEW TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES WEST OF MEXICO... As of 3:00 PM MDT Mon Sep 11 the center of Fifteen-E was located near 16.4, -112.3 with movement W at 15 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1006 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 30 mph.
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Tropical Depression Fifteen-E Public Advisory Number 1
2017-09-11 22:33:21| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 300 PM MDT Mon Sep 11 2017 000 WTPZ35 KNHC 112033 TCPEP5 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Fifteen-E Advisory Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP152017 300 PM MDT Mon Sep 11 2017 ...A NEW TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES WEST OF MEXICO... SUMMARY OF 300 PM MDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...16.4N 112.3W ABOUT 555 MI...895 KM WSW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 300 PM MDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Fifteen-E was located near latitude 16.4 North, longitude 112.3 West. The depression is moving toward the west near 15 mph (24 km/h) and is expected to move toward the west or west-southwest at a slower rate of forward speed during the next two days. Maximum sustained winds are near 30 mph (45 km/h) with higher gusts. The system is expected intensify slightly and become a tropical storm by Wednesday. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 900 PM MDT. $$ Forecaster Landsea
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Tropical Depression Fifteen-E Forecast Advisory Number 1
2017-09-11 22:32:51| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 2100 UTC MON SEP 11 2017 000 WTPZ25 KNHC 112032 TCMEP5 TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIFTEEN-E FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152017 2100 UTC MON SEP 11 2017 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.4N 112.3W AT 11/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 13 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.4N 112.3W AT 11/2100Z AT 11/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.4N 111.7W FORECAST VALID 12/0600Z 16.2N 114.1W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 12/1800Z 15.8N 116.2W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 13/0600Z 15.4N 118.0W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 13/1800Z 15.3N 119.6W MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 14/1800Z 15.7N 121.7W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 15/1800Z 16.0N 123.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 25 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 16/1800Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.4N 112.3W NEXT ADVISORY AT 12/0300Z $$ FORECASTER LANDSEA
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