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Tropical Depression Fifteen-E Public Advisory Number 2
2017-09-12 04:31:22| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 900 PM MDT Mon Sep 11 2017 000 WTPZ35 KNHC 120231 TCPEP5 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Fifteen-E Advisory Number 2 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP152017 900 PM MDT Mon Sep 11 2017 ...TROPICAL DEPRESSION REMAINS SHEARED... SUMMARY OF 900 PM MDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...16.2N 113.6W ABOUT 640 MI...1035 KM WSW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 260 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 900 PM MDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Fifteen-E was located near latitude 16.2 North, longitude 113.6 West. The depression is moving toward the west near 14 mph (22 km/h). A continued westward motion with a decrease in forward speed is forecast for the next couple of days. Maximum sustained winds are near 30 mph (45 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is expected during the next 48 hours. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 300 AM MDT. $$ Forecaster Zelinsky
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Tropical Depression Irma Public Advisory Number 52
2017-09-12 04:31:22| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 PM EDT Mon Sep 11 2017 000 WTNT31 KNHC 120231 TCPAT1 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Irma Advisory Number 52 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL112017 1100 PM EDT Mon Sep 11 2017 ...IRMA WEAKENS TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION... ...HEAVY RAINFALL CONTINUES ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES... SUMMARY OF 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...32.4N 84.9W ABOUT 5 MI...10 KM S OF COLUMBUS GEORGIA ABOUT 95 MI...150 KM SSW OF ATLANTA GEORGIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 320 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...988 MB...29.18 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: All Storm Surge Warnings and Tropical Storm Warnings have been discontinued. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. Interests in the southeastern United States should monitor the progress of Irma. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 1100 PM EDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Irma was located near latitude 32.4 North, longitude 84.9 West. The depression is moving toward the northwest near 15 mph (24 km/h), and this motion at a slightly slower speed is expected through Monday. A turn toward the north-northwest is forecast Monday night. On the forecast track, the center of Irma will move into Alabama soon and then into western Tennessee by Monday evening. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional weakening is forecast, and Irma is expected to degenerate into a remnant low by Monday evening. The low is likely to dissipate by Tuesday evening. The estimated minimum central pressure is 988 mb (29.18 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- STORM SURGE: Water levels are gradually subsiding along the southeastern United States coast and the west coast of Florida. WIND: Gusty winds to tropical storm force are possible near the coast of South Carolina and in heavier rainbands across the southeastern United States overnight. RAINFALL: Irma is expected to produce rain accumulations of 2 to 5 inches with isolated 8 inches through Wednesday across South Carolina and northern portions of Georgia, Alabama, and Mississippi into Tennessee and North Carolina. SURF: Swells generated by Irma are affecting the southeast coast of the United States. These swells are likely to cause life- threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- This is the last public advisory issued by the National Hurricane Center on this system. Future information on this system can be found in Public Advisories issued by the Weather Prediction Center beginning at 5 AM EDT, under AWIPS header TCPAT1, WMO header WTNT31 KWNH, and on the web at http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov. $$ Forecaster Berg
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Tropical Depression Fifteen-E Forecast Discussion Number 2
2017-09-12 04:31:22| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 900 PM MDT Mon Sep 11 2017 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 120231 TCDEP5 Tropical Depression Fifteen-E Discussion Number 2 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP152017 900 PM MDT Mon Sep 11 2017 The tropical depression remains sheared, and convection has decreased since this afternoon. The initial intensity has been held at 25 kt based on a blend of the most recent TAFB and SAB Dvorak classifications. Little change in intensity is forecast for the next few days. The GFS and ECMWF both indicate that the strong easterly wind shear will not decrease for the next 36 to 48 hours, which should prevent significant strengthening and could cause the cyclone to quickly become a remnant low. After that time, the forecast becomes more complicated since the depression, or its remnants, may interact with another surface low pressure system forecast to develop over the open East Pacific. As a result of this proximity, some of the model trackers depict strengthening near the end of the forecast period. Because most of the models depict the other developing low as the dominant system in any potential interaction, I am electing to discount that possibility for now. The official forecast instead shows the depression becoming a remnant low within 72 hours, and dissipating entirely sometime after 96 h, similar to the previous advisory. The depression is moving just south of due west at 13 kt. The low- to mid-level components of a ridge located to the north should keep the cyclone moving generally westward through the forecast period, until it dissipates. The ECMWF solution seems to be the most reasonable of the dynamical models because it keeps the depression separate from any other developing low pressure systems. The new official forecast track is therefore most similar to the ECMWF, and is not significantly different from the previous forecast. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 12/0300Z 16.2N 113.6W 25 KT 30 MPH 12H 12/1200Z 15.9N 115.2W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 13/0000Z 15.4N 117.2W 30 KT 35 MPH 36H 13/1200Z 15.2N 119.0W 25 KT 30 MPH 48H 14/0000Z 15.3N 120.4W 25 KT 30 MPH 72H 15/0000Z 16.0N 122.4W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 16/0000Z 16.5N 124.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 17/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Zelinsky
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Tropical Depression Fifteen-E Wind Speed Probabilities Number 2
2017-09-12 04:31:22| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0300 UTC TUE SEP 12 2017 000 FOPZ15 KNHC 120231 PWSEP5 TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIFTEEN-E WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 2 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152017 0300 UTC TUE SEP 12 2017 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIFTEEN-E WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 113.6 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 25 KTS...30 MPH...45 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 15N 115W 34 4 3( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) 15N 120W 34 X 1( 1) 6( 7) 7(14) 3(17) X(17) X(17) 15N 125W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) $$ FORECASTER ZELINSKY
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Tropical Depression Fifteen-E Forecast Advisory Number 2
2017-09-12 04:30:51| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0300 UTC TUE SEP 12 2017 000 WTPZ25 KNHC 120230 TCMEP5 TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIFTEEN-E FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 2 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152017 0300 UTC TUE SEP 12 2017 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.2N 113.6W AT 12/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 260 DEGREES AT 12 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.2N 113.6W AT 12/0300Z AT 12/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.3N 113.0W FORECAST VALID 12/1200Z 15.9N 115.2W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 13/0000Z 15.4N 117.2W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 13/1200Z 15.2N 119.0W MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 14/0000Z 15.3N 120.4W MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 15/0000Z 16.0N 122.4W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 16/0000Z 16.5N 124.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 17/0000Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.2N 113.6W NEXT ADVISORY AT 12/0900Z $$ FORECASTER ZELINSKY
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