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Tropical Depression EIGHT-E Public Advisory Number 8
2017-07-20 10:35:26| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 AM PDT Thu Jul 20 2017 000 WTPZ33 KNHC 200835 TCPEP3 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Eight-E Advisory Number 8 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP082017 200 AM PDT Thu Jul 20 2017 ...DEPRESSION REMAINS WEAK... SUMMARY OF 200 AM PDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...13.7N 122.6W ABOUT 1045 MI...1685 KM SW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WSW OR 245 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1009 MB...29.80 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 200 AM PDT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Eight-E was located near latitude 13.7 North, longitude 122.6 West. The depression is moving toward the west-southwest near 6 mph (9 km/h). A turn toward the southwest or south-southwest with a decrease in forward speed is expected by Friday. Maximum sustained winds are near 30 mph (45 km/h) with higher gusts. The depression is forecast to become a remnant low by this weekend. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1009 mb (29.80 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 800 AM PDT. $$ Forecaster Zelinsky
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Tropical Depression EIGHT-E Wind Speed Probabilities Number 8
2017-07-20 10:35:23| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0900 UTC THU JUL 20 2017 000 FOPZ13 KNHC 200835 PWSEP3 TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT-E WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 8 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP082017 0900 UTC THU JUL 20 2017 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT-E WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 13.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 122.6 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 25 KTS...30 MPH...45 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 10N 125W 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) $$ FORECASTER ZELINSKY
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Tropical Depression Eight-E Graphics
2017-07-20 04:39:53| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Thu, 20 Jul 2017 02:39:53 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 20 Jul 2017 02:39:53 GMT
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Tropical Depression Eight-E Forecast Discussion Number 7
2017-07-20 04:34:50| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 PM PDT Wed Jul 19 2017 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 200234 TCDEP3 Tropical Depression Eight-E Discussion Number 7 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP082017 800 PM PDT Wed Jul 19 2017 The depression has changed little in structure since the last advisory. Small bursts of convection have been pulsing near the center of circulation, with a band extending to the southwest. The initial intensity remains 25 kt, mainly because there has been no new data to suggest otherwise. The initial motion is slowly west-southwestward, or 245/5 kt. The depression is expected to be steered around the western side of Tropical Storm Greg's circulation during the next couple of days, which will induce a slow southwestward to southward motion. The track models have locked into this scenario, and the new NHC track forecast is very similar to the previous one. Water vapor imagery continues to show the depression being blasted by strong upper-level winds to the south of a large upper-level low, which is resulting in about 15 kt of shear. Although the cyclone could escape some of this shear while it moves southward around Greg, the damage will probably already be done by that point. Since the convection is already losing organization, and the global models show the cyclone's circulation being disrupted by Greg soon, the depression is expected to degenerate to a remnant low by 36 hours, if not sooner. The remnant circulation should then dissipate south or southeast of Greg by day 3. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 20/0300Z 13.9N 122.2W 25 KT 30 MPH 12H 20/1200Z 13.4N 122.8W 25 KT 30 MPH 24H 21/0000Z 12.7N 123.3W 25 KT 30 MPH 36H 21/1200Z 12.0N 123.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 22/0000Z 11.9N 123.6W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 23/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Berg
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Summary for Tropical Depression Eight-E (EP3/EP082017)
2017-07-20 04:34:25| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...DEPRESSION FORECAST TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW IN A DAY OR TWO... As of 8:00 PM PDT Wed Jul 19 the center of Eight-E was located near 13.9, -122.2 with movement WSW at 6 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1009 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 30 mph.
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