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Tropical Depression Eight-E Graphics
2017-07-20 16:48:52| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Thu, 20 Jul 2017 14:48:52 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 20 Jul 2017 14:48:52 GMT
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Tropical Depression Eight-E Forecast Discussion Number 9
2017-07-20 16:44:52| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 AM PDT Thu Jul 20 2017 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 201444 TCDEP3 Tropical Depression Eight-E Discussion Number 9 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP082017 800 AM PDT Thu Jul 20 2017 The center of the depression remains difficult to find, but it appears to be near a small area of disorganized convection. As with the previous advisory, the satellite intensity estimates remain largely unchanged and the initial intensity is held at 25 kt. There is again no change to the intensity forecast thinking. A combination of shear from an upper-level low to the north and interaction with Tropical Storm Greg to the east should cause the depression to weaken and eventually dissipate. The intensity forecast has the system degenerating into a remnant low after 24 h and dissipating after 48 hr as it become absorbed into Greg. However, the system could decay to a remnant low at any time before then. The initial motion remains 245/5 kt. The depression is still expected to be advected slowly southwestward around the circulation of Greg until dissipation. The new forecast track is an update of the previous track. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 20/1500Z 13.4N 123.1W 25 KT 30 MPH 12H 21/0000Z 12.9N 123.8W 25 KT 30 MPH 24H 21/1200Z 12.1N 124.5W 25 KT 30 MPH 36H 22/0000Z 11.6N 125.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 22/1200Z 11.6N 125.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 23/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Beven
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Tropical Depression Eight-E Wind Speed Probabilities Number 9
2017-07-20 16:44:28| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1500 UTC THU JUL 20 2017 000 FOPZ13 KNHC 201444 PWSEP3 TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT-E WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 9 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP082017 1500 UTC THU JUL 20 2017 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT-E WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 13.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 123.1 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 25 KTS...30 MPH...45 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 10N 125W 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) $$ FORECASTER BEVEN
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Summary for Tropical Depression Eight-E (EP3/EP082017)
2017-07-20 16:44:27| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...DEPRESSION EXPECTED TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO... As of 8:00 AM PDT Thu Jul 20 the center of Eight-E was located near 13.4, -123.1 with movement WSW at 6 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1009 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 30 mph.
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Tropical Depression Eight-E Public Advisory Number 9
2017-07-20 16:44:27| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 AM PDT Thu Jul 20 2017 000 WTPZ33 KNHC 201444 TCPEP3 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Eight-E Advisory Number 9 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP082017 800 AM PDT Thu Jul 20 2017 ...DEPRESSION EXPECTED TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO... SUMMARY OF 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...13.4N 123.1W ABOUT 1085 MI...1745 KM SW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WSW OR 245 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1009 MB...29.80 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 800 AM PDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Eight-E was located near latitude 13.4 North, longitude 123.1 West. The depression is moving toward the west-southwest near 6 mph (9 km/h), and a slow motion toward the southwest is expected during the next couple of days. Maximum sustained winds are near 30 mph (45 km/h) with higher gusts. The depression is forecast to become a remnant low Friday or Friday night. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1009 mb (29.80 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 200 PM PDT. $$ Forecaster Beven
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