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Tropical Depression SIX-E Forecast Advisory Number 1
2017-07-12 04:34:58| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0300 UTC WED JUL 12 2017 000 WTPZ21 KNHC 120234 TCMEP1 TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIX-E FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062017 0300 UTC WED JUL 12 2017 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.2N 109.9W AT 12/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 10 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.2N 109.9W AT 12/0300Z AT 12/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 12.2N 109.4W FORECAST VALID 12/1200Z 12.2N 111.2W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 13/0000Z 12.2N 113.2W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 40SE 20SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 13/1200Z 12.3N 115.2W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 50NE 50SE 30SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 14/0000Z 12.4N 117.2W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 60NE 60SE 40SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 15/0000Z 12.5N 121.7W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT... 70NE 70SE 50SW 70NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 16/0000Z 12.5N 127.0W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 17/0000Z 12.5N 132.8W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 12.2N 109.9W NEXT ADVISORY AT 12/0900Z $$ FORECASTER BROWN
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Tropical Depression Four Graphics
2017-07-07 16:38:32| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Fri, 07 Jul 2017 14:38:32 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Fri, 07 Jul 2017 14:38:32 GMT
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Tropical Depression Four Forecast Discussion Number 7
2017-07-07 16:32:55| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 AM AST Fri Jul 07 2017 000 WTNT44 KNHC 071432 TCDAT4 Tropical Depression Four Discussion Number 7 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL042017 1100 AM AST Fri Jul 07 2017 The depression consists of a possible circulation center embedded within a very small area of intermittent convection. The areal coverage of the convection has been gradually decreasing since yesterday, and the cloud pattern is not showing much organization at this time. NHC is keeping an initial intensity of 25 kt, and these winds are only occurring in a few remaining squalls. Although the shear is currently low, the depression is moving into a relatively low-moisture environment, and this factor in combination with the fast motion of the cyclone will probably result in weakening. The depression is forecast to become a remnant low or degenerate into a open wave tonight. The depression or its remnants will continue to move toward the west-northwest at about 18 kt embedded within the strong July trade winds. This is the solution of the few models which maintain a distinct perturbation in the flow for a few more days. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 07/1500Z 15.6N 50.9W 25 KT 30 MPH 12H 08/0000Z 16.5N 53.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 24H 08/1200Z 17.8N 57.1W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 09/0000Z 19.2N 60.3W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 09/1200Z 21.0N 63.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 10/1200Z 23.5N 69.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 11/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Avila
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Tropical Depression Four Wind Speed Probabilities Number 7
2017-07-07 16:32:25| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC FRI JUL 07 2017 000 FONT14 KNHC 071432 PWSAT4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 7 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042017 1500 UTC FRI JUL 07 2017 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 50.9 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 25 KTS...30 MPH...45 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER AVILA
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Summary for Tropical Depression Four (AT4/AL042017)
2017-07-07 16:31:58| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...DEPRESSION FORECAST TO DEGENERATE INTO A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LATER TODAY... As of 11:00 AM AST Fri Jul 7 the center of Four was located near 15.6, -50.9 with movement WNW at 21 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1011 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 30 mph.
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