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Tropical Depression Four Forecast Discussion Number 4
2017-07-06 22:32:49| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 PM AST Thu Jul 06 2017 000 WTNT44 KNHC 062032 TCDAT4 Tropical Depression Four Discussion Number 4 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL042017 500 PM AST Thu Jul 06 2017 It's difficult to tell from visible and microwave satellite imagery whether or not the depression still has a closed surface circulation. In addition, the forward speed is now about 20 kt, which would make it difficult for a 25-kt depression to maintain westerly winds to the south of the center. For now, advisories will be maintained until/if there is stronger evidence that the circulation has opened up. Convective cloud tops have warmed during the past few hours, and Dvorak final-T numbers from TAFB and SAB have decreased. Therefore, the initial intensity will be held at 25 kt based on continuity. Multispectral satellite imagery shows the Saharan Air Layer is overtaking the depression, and it will be increasingly more difficult for the system to maintain organized deep convection. It has also become more likely that the cyclone will not strengthen beyond its current intensity. The global models indicate that southwesterly to westerly deep-layer shear will increase in about 36 hours, at which point the NHC official forecast now shows the depression degenerating to a remnant low. However, it's entirely possible that the cyclone could open up into a tropical wave at any time. Based on the estimated center location, the depression has not gained much latitude today, and the initial motion estimate is 275/20 kt. The global models remain persistent that the cyclone should turn west-northwestward in about 24 hours as it approaches a break in the subtropical ridge, and they are generally in very close agreement on the future track and forward speed through at least 48 hours. The updated NHC track forecast is nudged southward to account for the recent motion, but otherwise it is an update of the previous forecast. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 06/2100Z 13.1N 44.9W 25 KT 30 MPH 12H 07/0600Z 13.8N 47.8W 25 KT 30 MPH 24H 07/1800Z 14.9N 51.5W 25 KT 30 MPH 36H 08/0600Z 16.2N 55.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 08/1800Z 17.8N 58.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 09/1800Z 20.9N 64.1W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 10/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Berg
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Summary for Tropical Depression Four (AT4/AL042017)
2017-07-06 22:32:20| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...DEPRESSION ACCELERATING WESTWARD AND STILL NOT VERY WELL ORGANIZED... As of 5:00 PM AST Thu Jul 6 the center of Four was located near 13.1, -44.9 with movement W at 23 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1009 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 30 mph.
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Tropical Depression Four Public Advisory Number 4
2017-07-06 22:32:20| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 PM AST Thu Jul 06 2017 000 WTNT34 KNHC 062032 TCPAT4 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Four Advisory Number 4 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL042017 500 PM AST Thu Jul 06 2017 ...DEPRESSION ACCELERATING WESTWARD AND STILL NOT VERY WELL ORGANIZED... SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...13.1N 44.9W ABOUT 1110 MI...1785 KM E OF THE LESSER ANTILLES MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 23 MPH...37 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1009 MB...29.80 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Four was located near latitude 13.1 North, longitude 44.9 West. The depression is moving toward the west near 23 mph (37 km/h). A westward to west-northwestward motion at a similar forward speed is expected through Saturday. Maximum sustained winds are near 30 mph (45 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is forecast during the next 48 hours. The depression is expected to degenerate to a remnant low by Friday night, but it could also open up into a tropical wave at any time. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1009 mb (29.80 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Berg
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Tropical Depression Four Wind Speed Probabilities Number 4
2017-07-06 22:32:20| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC THU JUL 06 2017 000 FONT14 KNHC 062032 PWSAT4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 4 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042017 2100 UTC THU JUL 06 2017 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 13.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 44.9 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 25 KTS...30 MPH...45 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER BERG
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Tropical Depression Four Forecast Advisory Number 4
2017-07-06 22:31:47| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC THU JUL 06 2017 000 WTNT24 KNHC 062031 TCMAT4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 4 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042017 2100 UTC THU JUL 06 2017 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.1N 44.9W AT 06/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 275 DEGREES AT 20 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1009 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.1N 44.9W AT 06/2100Z AT 06/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.0N 44.0W FORECAST VALID 07/0600Z 13.8N 47.8W MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 07/1800Z 14.9N 51.5W MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 08/0600Z 16.2N 55.1W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 08/1800Z 17.8N 58.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 09/1800Z 20.9N 64.1W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 10/1800Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.1N 44.9W NEXT ADVISORY AT 07/0300Z $$ FORECASTER BERG
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