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Tropical Depression Four Public Advisory Number 7
2017-07-07 16:31:58| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 AM AST Fri Jul 07 2017 000 WTNT34 KNHC 071431 TCPAT4 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Four Advisory Number 7 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL042017 1100 AM AST Fri Jul 07 2017 ...DEPRESSION FORECAST TO DEGENERATE INTO A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LATER TODAY... SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...15.6N 50.9W ABOUT 690 MI...1115 KM E OF THE LESSER ANTILLES MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 21 MPH...33 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1011 MB...29.86 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Four was located near latitude 15.6 North, longitude 50.9 West. The depression is moving toward the west-northwest near 21 mph (33 km/h), and this motion is expected to continue today. Maximum sustained winds are near 30 mph (45 km/h) with higher gusts, and these winds are probably associated with a few remaining squalls. The depression is forecast to degenerate into a remnant low tonight. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1011 mb (29.86 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Avila
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Tropical Depression Four Forecast Advisory Number 7
2017-07-07 16:31:32| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC FRI JUL 07 2017 000 WTNT24 KNHC 071431 TCMAT4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 7 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042017 1500 UTC FRI JUL 07 2017 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.6N 50.9W AT 07/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 18 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1011 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.6N 50.9W AT 07/1500Z AT 07/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.3N 50.0W FORECAST VALID 08/0000Z 16.5N 53.6W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 08/1200Z 17.8N 57.1W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 09/0000Z 19.2N 60.3W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 09/1200Z 21.0N 63.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 10/1200Z 23.5N 69.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 11/1200Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.6N 50.9W NEXT ADVISORY AT 07/2100Z $$ FORECASTER AVILA
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Tropical Depression Four Graphics
2017-07-07 10:47:05| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Fri, 07 Jul 2017 08:47:05 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Fri, 07 Jul 2017 09:23:55 GMT
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Tropical Depression Four Forecast Discussion Number 6
2017-07-07 10:42:25| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 AM AST Fri Jul 07 2017 000 WTNT44 KNHC 070842 TCDAT4 Tropical Depression Four Discussion Number 6 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL042017 500 AM AST Fri Jul 07 2017 The small, tenacious depression has continued to hold its own early this morning with the low-level center now having moved up into the deep convective cloud mass, with the center being north of the previous advisory positions based on earlier scatterometer and buoy wind data. Upper-level outflow is fair in all quadrants, albeit elongated from northwest to southeast, and the vertical wind shear has now shifted from northeasterly to light southwesterly at less than 5 kt. The initial intensity is being maintained at 25 kt based on 0600 UTC satellite classifications of 25 kt from TAFB and SAB, but it wouldn't surprise me if the system isn't a little stronger given the noticeable improvement in the convective cloud pattern since the time of those fixes. The initial motion estimate is 285/19 kt. The new NHC forecast track has been shifted northward of the previous advisory track, but only due to the more northward initial position. Otherwise, there is little change to the previous forecast reasoning. A strong low- to mid-level ridge to the north of the depression should act to steer the small cyclone generally west-northwestward until dissipation occurs in about 96 h. The new forecast track lies down the middle of the tightly clustered model suite, near the consensus model TVCN. The depression is expected to retain that status for another 36 h or so while the vertical wind shear remains relatively low at less than 15 kt. By 36-48 h, westerly vertical wind shear is forecast to increase to around 20 kt, which should induce gradual weakening. The small cyclone is expected to degenerate into a remnant low by 48-72 h and dissipate by 96 h. There is one important caveat to note and that is the UKMET model, which continues to show less weakening and even strengthening in 96 and 120 h when the system is approaching the Bahamas. Although the other global and regional models do not show regeneration at this time, they do however show similar improving upper-level wind conditions east of Florida by 120 h. For now, the official intensity forecast remains similar to the previous advisory and the consensus model IVCN through 48 h, after which the forecast is lower than the intensity consensus. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 07/0900Z 15.0N 48.8W 25 KT 30 MPH 12H 07/1800Z 15.8N 51.6W 25 KT 30 MPH 24H 08/0600Z 17.1N 55.1W 25 KT 30 MPH 36H 08/1800Z 18.6N 58.7W 25 KT 30 MPH 48H 09/0600Z 20.1N 61.9W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 10/0600Z 22.8N 67.7W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 11/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Stewart
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Summary for Tropical Depression Four (AT4/AL042017)
2017-07-07 10:41:52| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...DEPRESSION MOVING QUICKLY ACROSS THE CENTRAL TROPICAL ATLANTIC... As of 5:00 AM AST Fri Jul 7 the center of Four was located near 15.0, -48.8 with movement WNW at 22 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1011 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 30 mph.
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