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Tropical Depression Four Public Advisory Number 6
2017-07-07 10:41:52| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 AM AST Fri Jul 07 2017 000 WTNT34 KNHC 070841 TCPAT4 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Four Advisory Number 6 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL042017 500 AM AST Fri Jul 07 2017 ...DEPRESSION MOVING QUICKLY ACROSS THE CENTRAL TROPICAL ATLANTIC... SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...15.0N 48.8W ABOUT 835 MI...1340 KM E OF THE LESSER ANTILLES MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 22 MPH...35 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1011 MB...29.86 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Four was located near latitude 15.0 North, longitude 48.8 West. The depression is moving toward the west-northwest near 22 mph (35 km/h) and this general motion is expected to continue through Saturday. Maximum sustained winds are near 30 mph (45 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is forecast today, with weakening expected to begin by late tonight. The depression is forecast to degenerate into a remnant low or tropical wave by Saturday. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1011 mb (29.86 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Stewart
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Tropical Depression Four Wind Speed Probabilities Number 6
2017-07-07 10:41:52| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC FRI JUL 07 2017 000 FONT14 KNHC 070841 PWSAT4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 6 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042017 0900 UTC FRI JUL 07 2017 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 48.8 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 25 KTS...30 MPH...45 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER STEWART
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Tropical Depression Four Forecast Advisory Number 6
2017-07-07 10:41:25| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC FRI JUL 07 2017 000 WTNT24 KNHC 070841 TCMAT4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 6 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042017 0900 UTC FRI JUL 07 2017 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.0N 48.8W AT 07/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 19 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1011 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.0N 48.8W AT 07/0900Z AT 07/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.8N 47.9W FORECAST VALID 07/1800Z 15.8N 51.6W MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 08/0600Z 17.1N 55.1W MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 08/1800Z 18.6N 58.7W MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 09/0600Z 20.1N 61.9W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 10/0600Z 22.8N 67.7W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 11/0600Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.0N 48.8W NEXT ADVISORY AT 07/1500Z $$ FORECASTER STEWART
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Tropical Depression Four Graphics
2017-07-07 04:42:52| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Fri, 07 Jul 2017 02:42:52 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Fri, 07 Jul 2017 02:42:52 GMT
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Tropical Depression Four Forecast Discussion Number 5
2017-07-07 04:37:54| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 PM AST Thu Jul 06 2017 000 WTNT44 KNHC 070237 TCDAT4 Tropical Depression Four Discussion Number 5 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL042017 1100 PM AST Thu Jul 06 2017 The depression continues to be poorly organized this evening. Recent scatterometer data indicate that the circulation is losing definition, with the center in that data well to the southeast of the remaining convection. A complication, though, is recent observations from NOAA buoy 41041 that suggest the possibility of a second center closer to the remaining convection and well to the north of the center seen in the scatterometer data. The initial intensity remains 25 kt based mainly on the scatterometer data. It is possible that the system has already degenerated to an open wave, but for now advisories will be maintained until visible imagery becomes available Friday morning. The depression should continue to lose organization due to entrainment of dry air and developing southwesterly shear. The new intensity forecast now calls for the system to degenerate to a remnant low between 12 and 24 h and become a open wave after 72 h. Both of these events could occur earlier than current forecast. It should be noted that the UKMET model suggests the possibility the system could regenerate near the end of the forecast period. However, the other large-scale models do not yet support this scenario. A strong low- to mid-level ridge to the north of the cyclone should steer it westward to west-northwestward until dissipation. The new forecast track lies near the model consensus and is a little to the south of the previous track. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 07/0300Z 13.4N 46.7W 25 KT 30 MPH 12H 07/1200Z 14.1N 49.6W 25 KT 30 MPH 24H 08/0000Z 15.2N 53.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 08/1200Z 16.6N 56.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 09/0000Z 18.3N 60.2W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 10/0000Z 21.0N 66.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 11/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Beven
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