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Tropical Depression FOUR Forecast Advisory Number 3
2017-07-06 16:33:17| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC THU JUL 06 2017 000 WTNT24 KNHC 061433 TCMAT4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 3 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042017 1500 UTC THU JUL 06 2017 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.2N 42.6W AT 06/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 18 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1008 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.2N 42.6W AT 06/1500Z AT 06/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.0N 41.7W FORECAST VALID 07/0000Z 14.0N 45.3W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 07/1200Z 15.1N 49.3W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 08/0000Z 16.2N 52.9W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 08/1200Z 17.7N 56.6W MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 09/1200Z 20.6N 62.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 10/1200Z 23.0N 67.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 11/1200Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.2N 42.6W NEXT ADVISORY AT 06/2100Z $$ FORECASTER ROBERTS
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Tropical Depression Four Graphics
2017-07-06 10:39:25| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Thu, 06 Jul 2017 08:39:25 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 06 Jul 2017 09:23:18 GMT
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Tropical Depression Four Forecast Discussion Number 2
2017-07-06 10:34:49| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 AM AST Thu Jul 06 2017 000 WTNT44 KNHC 060834 TCDAT4 Tropical Depression Four Discussion Number 2 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL042017 500 AM AST Thu Jul 06 2017 The cloud pattern of the tropical cyclone consists mainly of a circularly shaped mass of deep convection that has persisted overnight. Since there has been little overall change in the satellite appearance of the system, the current intensity estimate remains 25 kt, which is also in agreement with a Dvorak estimate from SAB. Dry and dusty air related to the Saharan Air Layer, to the east of the tropical cyclone, is beginning to wrap around the northern part of the depression's circulation. Dynamical models indicate that this air mass will be partially entrained into the system over the next couple of days. This, combined with increasing vertical shear, should prevent significant strengthening of the system. Although the statistical-dynamical guidance, SHIPS and LGEM, forecast some modest intensification of the tropical cyclone, these models have been known to have a high bias at times. The GFS, UKMET, and ECMWF global models all show the system quickly degenerating to a wave. As a compromise between the global and the statistical-dynamical guidance, the official forecast more or less maintains the cyclone's intensity for a couple of days followed by weakening to a remnant low in 72 hours and dissipation after 96 hours. The center is not very easy to locate, but based on continuity with earlier data it is believed to be near the eastern edge of the convective mass. There has apparently been some acceleration and the motion is now estimated to be 290/15 kt. The flow on the southern side of a subtropical ridge should continue to steer the tropical cyclone, or its remnants, west-northwestward over the next few days. The official track forecast follows a trajectory very similar to the previous one, but is somewhat faster. This is close to the latest model consensus. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 06/0900Z 13.2N 40.0W 25 KT 30 MPH 12H 06/1800Z 14.0N 42.5W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 07/0600Z 15.0N 46.2W 30 KT 35 MPH 36H 07/1800Z 16.3N 50.0W 30 KT 35 MPH 48H 08/0600Z 17.5N 53.5W 25 KT 30 MPH 72H 09/0600Z 20.5N 59.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 10/0600Z 23.0N 65.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 11/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Pasch
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Tropical Depression Four Wind Speed Probabilities Number 2
2017-07-06 10:34:22| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC THU JUL 06 2017 000 FONT14 KNHC 060834 PWSAT4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 2 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042017 0900 UTC THU JUL 06 2017 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 13.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 40.0 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 25 KTS...30 MPH...45 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER PASCH
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Summary for Tropical Depression Four (AT4/AL042017)
2017-07-06 10:34:17| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...DEPRESSION MOVING FASTER TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OVER THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC... As of 5:00 AM AST Thu Jul 6 the center of Four was located near 13.2, -40.0 with movement WNW at 17 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1008 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 30 mph.
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