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Tropical Depression Six-E Forecast Discussion Number 2
2017-07-12 10:54:57| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 300 AM MDT Wed Jul 12 2017 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 120854 TCDEP1 Tropical Depression Six-E Discussion Number 2 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP062017 300 AM MDT Wed Jul 12 2017 The structure of the depression has changed little during the past few hours, with the low-level center still located on the eastern edge of a central cluster of deep convection. Dvorak intensity estimates from TAFB and SAB are T2.5/35 kt and T1.5/25 kt, while the objective ADT estimate is T2.0/30 kt. The initial intensity therefore remains 30 kt. Low- to mid-level high pressure is currently located north of the depression near the Baja California peninsula, and it is steering the cyclone westward at 270/10 kt. This ridging is expected to strengthen and build westward through the forecast period, imparting a continued westward or even south-of-due-west motion on the cyclone through day 5. In fact, with the exception of the UKMET, the other track models have shifted notably southward from the previous NHC forecast for the first 72 hours. The updated NHC track forecast has also been shifted southward, close to the TVCN multi-model consensus, but it is not as far south as the ECMWF, HWRF, and HCCA models. Therefore, it wouldn't be surprising to see additional southward adjustments in future forecast packages. Various shear analyses place 10-15 kt of northeasterly shear over the depression, and that shear is likely to continue for another 24-36 hours. In the meantime, the depression is moving over very warm waters of 28-29 deg C, and the cyclone's forecast low latitude should keep it over warm water for the duration of the forecast period. The global models, particularly the GFS and ECMWF, seem to suggest that significant deepening won't occur for another 24-48 hours (possibly due to the ongoing shear). Gradual strengthening is therefore forecast initially, and the NHC forecast is close to a blend of the SHIPS and HCCA models for the first 48 hours. After 48 hours, many of the models show more significant intensification due to lower shear, and during that period the NHC forecast is close to HCCA and the ICON intensity consensus. This new forecast is a little higher than the previous one on days 3, 4, and 5. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 12/0900Z 12.1N 110.7W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 12/1800Z 12.1N 112.0W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 13/0600Z 12.1N 113.9W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 13/1800Z 12.0N 115.8W 55 KT 65 MPH 48H 14/0600Z 11.9N 117.8W 65 KT 75 MPH 72H 15/0600Z 11.8N 122.4W 80 KT 90 MPH 96H 16/0600Z 12.2N 127.3W 90 KT 105 MPH 120H 17/0600Z 12.7N 132.0W 90 KT 105 MPH $$ Forecaster Berg
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Summary for Tropical Depression Six-E (EP1/EP062017)
2017-07-12 10:54:29| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...DEPRESSION FORECAST TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM LATER TODAY... As of 3:00 AM MDT Wed Jul 12 the center of Six-E was located near 12.1, -110.7 with movement W at 9 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1007 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.
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Tropical Depression Six-E Public Advisory Number 2
2017-07-12 10:54:29| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 300 AM MDT Wed Jul 12 2017 000 WTPZ31 KNHC 120854 TCPEP1 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Six-E Advisory Number 2 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP062017 300 AM MDT Wed Jul 12 2017 ...DEPRESSION FORECAST TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM LATER TODAY... SUMMARY OF 300 AM MDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...12.1N 110.7W ABOUT 750 MI...1205 KM S OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 300 AM MDT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Six-E was located near latitude 12.1 North, longitude 110.7 West. The depression is moving toward the west near 9 mph (15 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue during the next couple of days. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours, and the depression is expected to become a tropical storm later today. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 900 AM MDT. $$ Forecaster Berg
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Tropical Depression Six-E Wind Speed Probabilities Number 2
2017-07-12 10:54:29| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0900 UTC WED JUL 12 2017 000 FOPZ11 KNHC 120854 PWSEP1 TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIX-E WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 2 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062017 0900 UTC WED JUL 12 2017 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIX-E WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 12.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 110.7 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 10N 115W 34 X 3( 3) 11(14) 5(19) 1(20) X(20) X(20) 15N 115W 34 X 2( 2) 5( 7) 3(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) 10N 120W 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 7( 9) 31(40) 2(42) X(42) 10N 120W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 12(12) X(12) X(12) 10N 120W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) X( 5) X( 5) 15N 120W 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 12(18) 2(20) X(20) 15N 120W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 10N 125W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) 29(39) 2(41) 10N 125W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 14(15) X(15) 10N 125W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) X( 7) 15N 125W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 20(26) 2(28) 15N 125W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) 1( 9) 15N 125W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) 10N 130W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) 20(30) 10N 130W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 11(13) 10N 130W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) 15N 130W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 11(11) 26(37) 15N 130W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 13(15) 15N 130W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 10N 135W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 10N 135W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 10N 135W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 15N 135W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 13(13) 15N 135W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 15N 135W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) $$ FORECASTER BERG
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Tropical Depression Six-E Forecast Advisory Number 2
2017-07-12 10:54:02| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0900 UTC WED JUL 12 2017 000 WTPZ21 KNHC 120853 TCMEP1 TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIX-E FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 2 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062017 0900 UTC WED JUL 12 2017 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.1N 110.7W AT 12/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 8 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.1N 110.7W AT 12/0900Z AT 12/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 12.1N 110.3W FORECAST VALID 12/1800Z 12.1N 112.0W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 13/0600Z 12.1N 113.9W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 13/1800Z 12.0N 115.8W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT... 50NE 30SE 30SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 14/0600Z 11.9N 117.8W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 20SE 20SW 40NW. 34 KT... 60NE 40SE 40SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 15/0600Z 11.8N 122.4W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT... 70NE 60SE 50SW 70NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 16/0600Z 12.2N 127.3W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 17/0600Z 12.7N 132.0W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 12.1N 110.7W NEXT ADVISORY AT 12/1500Z $$ FORECASTER BERG
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