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Tropical Depression Four Wind Speed Probabilities Number 5
2017-07-07 04:37:23| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC FRI JUL 07 2017 000 FONT14 KNHC 070237 PWSAT4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 5 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042017 0300 UTC FRI JUL 07 2017 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 13.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 46.7 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 25 KTS...30 MPH...45 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER BEVEN
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Summary for Tropical Depression Four (AT4/AL042017)
2017-07-07 04:36:51| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...DEPRESSION EXPECTED TO DEGENERATE TO A REMNANT LOW OR A TROPICAL WAVE ON FRIDAY... As of 11:00 PM AST Thu Jul 6 the center of Four was located near 13.4, -46.7 with movement W at 23 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1012 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 30 mph.
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Tropical Depression Four Public Advisory Number 5
2017-07-07 04:36:51| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 PM AST Thu Jul 06 2017 000 WTNT34 KNHC 070236 TCPAT4 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Four Advisory Number 5 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL042017 1100 PM AST Thu Jul 06 2017 ...DEPRESSION EXPECTED TO DEGENERATE TO A REMNANT LOW OR A TROPICAL WAVE ON FRIDAY... SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...13.4N 46.7W ABOUT 985 MI...1585 KM E OF THE LESSER ANTILLES MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 23 MPH...37 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1012 MB...29.89 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Four was located near latitude 13.4 North, longitude 46.7 West. The depression is moving toward the west near 23 mph (37 km/h) and this motion is expected to continue through Saturday. Maximum sustained winds are near 30 mph (45 km/h) with higher gusts. Satellite wind data and surface observations indicate that the circulation of the depression is becoming less defined, and the system is expected to degenerate to a remnant low or tropical wave on Friday. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1012 mb (29.89 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Beven
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Tropical Depression Four Forecast Advisory Number 5
2017-07-07 04:35:52| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC FRI JUL 07 2017 000 WTNT24 KNHC 070235 TCMAT4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 5 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042017 0300 UTC FRI JUL 07 2017 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.4N 46.7W AT 07/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 20 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1012 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.4N 46.7W AT 07/0300Z AT 07/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.2N 45.8W FORECAST VALID 07/1200Z 14.1N 49.6W MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 08/0000Z 15.2N 53.1W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 08/1200Z 16.6N 56.7W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 09/0000Z 18.3N 60.2W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 10/0000Z 21.0N 66.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 11/0000Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.4N 46.7W NEXT ADVISORY AT 07/0900Z $$ FORECASTER BEVEN
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Tropical Depression Four Graphics
2017-07-06 22:37:46| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Thu, 06 Jul 2017 20:37:46 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 06 Jul 2017 21:23:44 GMT
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