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Tropical Depression Four Public Advisory Number 2
2017-07-06 10:34:17| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 AM AST Thu Jul 06 2017 000 WTNT34 KNHC 060834 TCPAT4 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Four Advisory Number 2 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL042017 500 AM AST Thu Jul 06 2017 ...DEPRESSION MOVING FASTER TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OVER THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC... SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...13.2N 40.0W ABOUT 1435 MI...2305 KM E OF THE LESSER ANTILLES MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Four was located near latitude 13.2 North, longitude 40.0 West. The depression is moving toward the west-northwest near 16 mph (26 km/h). A continued west-northwestward motion with an additional increase in forward speed is expected over the next 48 hours. Maximum sustained winds are near 30 mph (45 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is forecast during the next 48 hours, and the depression is not currently expected to become a tropical storm. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1008 mb (29.77 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Pasch
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Tropical Depression Four Forecast Advisory Number 2
2017-07-06 10:33:52| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC THU JUL 06 2017 000 WTNT24 KNHC 060833 TCMAT4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 2 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042017 0900 UTC THU JUL 06 2017 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.2N 40.0W AT 06/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 15 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1008 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.2N 40.0W AT 06/0900Z AT 06/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.1N 39.1W FORECAST VALID 06/1800Z 14.0N 42.5W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 07/0600Z 15.0N 46.2W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 07/1800Z 16.3N 50.0W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 08/0600Z 17.5N 53.5W MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 09/0600Z 20.5N 59.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 10/0600Z 23.0N 65.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 11/0600Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.2N 40.0W NEXT ADVISORY AT 06/1500Z $$ FORECASTER PASCH
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Tropical Depression FOUR Graphics
2017-07-06 04:37:56| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Thu, 06 Jul 2017 02:37:56 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 06 Jul 2017 03:23:37 GMT
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Tropical Depression FOUR Forecast Discussion Number 1
2017-07-06 04:32:47| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 PM AST Wed Jul 05 2017 000 WTNT44 KNHC 060232 TCDAT4 Tropical Depression Four Discussion Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL042017 1100 PM AST Wed Jul 05 2017 The low pressure area west of the Cabo Verde Islands has a well-defined circulation based on a combination of surface observations and scatterometer data. In addition, there has been a persistent area of convection west of the center for the past 12 h or so. Based on these, advisories are initiated on the system as a tropical depression. The initial intensity is set to 25 kt based on the scatterometer data and satellite intensity estimates from TAFB and SAB. Experimental multispectral imagery shows a large area of dry and dusty air over the Atlantic near and east of the depression, and it appears likely this will entrain into the circulation during the next couple of days. The large-scale models forecast the system to dissipate very quickly due to this entrainment, while in contrast the statistical-dynamical guidance forecasts modest strengthening. Another factor is that the current environment of light to moderate easterly shear is expected to become moderate to strong southwesterly shear at about 48 h. As a compromise between the extremes in the guidance, the intensity forecast calls for little change in strength for 48 h, followed by the system degenerating to a remnant low by 72 h. The initial motion is 290/12. The depression is on the south side of a strong low- to mid-level ridge, and this feature should steer the cyclone or its remnants west-northwestward for the next 5 days. There should be an increase in forward speed during the next 24 h, with some decrease in forward speed after 72 h as the system approaches a weakness in the ridge. The forecast track lies close to the model consensus. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 06/0300Z 12.8N 38.4W 25 KT 30 MPH 12H 06/1200Z 13.4N 40.4W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 07/0000Z 14.2N 43.8W 30 KT 35 MPH 36H 07/1200Z 15.2N 47.5W 30 KT 35 MPH 48H 08/0000Z 16.5N 51.1W 30 KT 35 MPH 72H 09/0000Z 19.5N 58.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 10/0000Z 22.0N 63.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 11/0000Z 24.5N 68.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Beven
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Tropical Depression FOUR Wind Speed Probabilities Number 1
2017-07-06 04:32:47| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC THU JUL 06 2017 000 FONT14 KNHC 060232 PWSAT4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042017 0300 UTC THU JUL 06 2017 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 12.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 38.4 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 25 KTS...30 MPH...45 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER BEVEN
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