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Tropical Depression FOUR Graphics
2017-07-06 16:39:11| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Thu, 06 Jul 2017 14:39:11 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 06 Jul 2017 14:39:12 GMT
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Tropical Depression FOUR Forecast Discussion Number 3
2017-07-06 16:34:21| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 AM AST Thu Jul 06 2017 000 WTNT44 KNHC 061434 TCDAT4 Tropical Depression Four Discussion Number 3 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL042017 1100 AM AST Thu Jul 06 2017 A series of microwave images, an earlier NRL WindSAT scatterometer overpass, and recent ASCAT-B surface wind retrievals indicate that the surface circulation of the depression has become less organized. The center remains near the eastern edge of an amorphous blob of deep convection and is a bit farther south than previously thought. Enhanced BD-curve infrared imagery also shows that the cloud tops have warmed considerably during the past 6 hours. The initial intensity is held at 25 kt for this advisory based on the deteriorating cloud pattern and a blend of the TAFB and SAB satellite intensity estimates. Large-scale dry, sinking air associated with a previous Saharan Air Layer outbreak continues to be the primary inhibiting factor affecting the cyclone. Global and ensemble guidance show the system degenerating into a remnant low or trough in 3 days or less, due to the aforementioned harsh thermodynamic environment and increasing moderate westerly shear. The official intensity forecast is basically an update of the previous advisory and favors the dynamical models. The initial motion is estimated to be west-northwestward, or 285/18 kt. The circulation center continues to be difficult to locate, but the above-mentioned scatterometer pass was helpful in obtaining the position estimate. The depression is forecast to be steered by the low- to mid-level flow associated with a building subtropical ridge situated to its north over the next several days. The new official forecast is about a half a degree south of the previous one due to the initial position adjustment. The NHC track is close to the latest TVCN multi-model consensus. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 06/1500Z 13.2N 42.6W 25 KT 30 MPH 12H 07/0000Z 14.0N 45.3W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 07/1200Z 15.1N 49.3W 30 KT 35 MPH 36H 08/0000Z 16.2N 52.9W 30 KT 35 MPH 48H 08/1200Z 17.7N 56.6W 25 KT 30 MPH 72H 09/1200Z 20.6N 62.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 10/1200Z 23.0N 67.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 11/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Roberts
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Tropical Depression FOUR Wind Speed Probabilities Number 3
2017-07-06 16:33:51| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC THU JUL 06 2017 000 FONT14 KNHC 061433 PWSAT4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 3 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042017 1500 UTC THU JUL 06 2017 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 13.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 42.6 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 25 KTS...30 MPH...45 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER ROBERTS
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Summary for Tropical Depression FOUR (AT4/AL042017)
2017-07-06 16:33:17| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...DEPRESSION POORLY ORGANIZED AND MOVING FASTER... As of 11:00 AM AST Thu Jul 6 the center of FOUR was located near 13.2, -42.6 with movement WNW at 21 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1008 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 30 mph.
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Tropical Depression FOUR Public Advisory Number 3
2017-07-06 16:33:17| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 AM AST Thu Jul 06 2017 000 WTNT34 KNHC 061433 TCPAT4 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Four Advisory Number 3 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL042017 1100 AM AST Thu Jul 06 2017 ...DEPRESSION POORLY ORGANIZED AND MOVING FASTER... SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...13.2N 42.6W ABOUT 1260 MI...2030 KM E OF THE LESSER ANTILLES MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 21 MPH...33 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Four was located near latitude 13.2 North, longitude 42.6 West. The depression is moving toward the west-northwest near 21 mph (33 km/h). A continued west-northwestward motion with an additional increase in forward speed is expected over the next 48 hours. Maximum sustained winds are near 30 mph (45 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is forecast during the next 48 hours, and the depression is not currently expected to become a tropical storm. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1008 mb (29.77 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Roberts
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