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Tropical Storm Otis Wind Speed Probabilities Number 22

2017-09-17 04:41:37| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 0300 UTC SUN SEP 17 2017 000 FOPZ15 KNHC 170241 PWSEP5 TROPICAL STORM OTIS WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 22 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152017 0300 UTC SUN SEP 17 2017 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM OTIS WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 127.3 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 40 KTS...45 MPH...75 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 15N 125W 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 20N 125W 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) X( 5) 15N 130W 34 X 1( 1) X( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4) 4( 8) 1( 9) 20N 130W 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4) 9(13) 3(16) X(16) 15N 135W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) $$ FORECASTER ZELINSKY

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Summary for Tropical Storm Otis (EP5/EP152017)

2017-09-17 04:40:41| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

...OTIS BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED... As of 8:00 PM PDT Sat Sep 16 the center of Otis was located near 15.9, -127.3 with movement W at 3 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1003 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 45 mph.

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Tropical Storm Otis Public Advisory Number 22

2017-09-17 04:40:41| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 800 PM PDT Sat Sep 16 2017 000 WTPZ35 KNHC 170240 TCPEP5 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Otis Advisory Number 22 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP152017 800 PM PDT Sat Sep 16 2017 ...OTIS BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED... SUMMARY OF 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...15.9N 127.3W ABOUT 1230 MI...1980 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 3 MPH...6 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 800 PM PDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Otis was located near latitude 15.9 North, longitude 127.3 West. Otis is moving toward the west near 3 mph (6 km/h). A slow northward movement is expected to begin overnight and continue through the next couple of days. The estimated maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts. Otis is forecast to strengthen slightly during the next 48 hours. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1003 mb (29.62 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 200 AM PDT. $$ Forecaster Zelinsky

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Tropical Storm Otis Forecast Advisory Number 22

2017-09-17 04:40:10| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 0300 UTC SUN SEP 17 2017 000 WTPZ25 KNHC 170239 TCMEP5 TROPICAL STORM OTIS FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 22 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152017 0300 UTC SUN SEP 17 2017 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.9N 127.3W AT 17/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 3 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1003 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. 34 KT....... 30NE 30SE 0SW 30NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 60NE 60SE 0SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.9N 127.3W AT 17/0300Z AT 17/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.9N 127.2W FORECAST VALID 17/1200Z 16.3N 127.7W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 18/0000Z 17.0N 127.8W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 40SE 0SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 18/1200Z 17.9N 127.8W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 50SE 30SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 19/0000Z 18.3N 128.0W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 50SE 30SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 20/0000Z 18.3N 128.8W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 30SE 0SW 40NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 21/0000Z 17.1N 131.4W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 22/0000Z 16.5N 134.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.9N 127.3W NEXT ADVISORY AT 17/0900Z $$ FORECASTER ZELINSKY

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