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Summary for Hurricane Otis (EP5/EP152017)
2017-09-18 04:37:10| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...OTIS NOW A CATEGORY 3 HURRICANE BUT EXPECTED TO REMAIN FAR OFFSHORE... As of 8:00 PM PDT Sun Sep 17 the center of Otis was located near 18.0, -127.2 with movement N at 8 mph. The minimum central pressure was 965 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 115 mph.
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Hurricane Otis Public Advisory Number 26
2017-09-18 04:37:10| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 PM PDT Sun Sep 17 2017 000 WTPZ35 KNHC 180236 TCPEP5 BULLETIN Hurricane Otis Advisory Number 26 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP152017 800 PM PDT Sun Sep 17 2017 ...OTIS NOW A CATEGORY 3 HURRICANE BUT EXPECTED TO REMAIN FAR OFFSHORE... SUMMARY OF 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...18.0N 127.2W ABOUT 1170 MI...1880 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...115 MPH...185 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...965 MB...28.50 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 800 PM PDT (0300 UTC), the center of Hurricane Otis was located near latitude 18.0 North, longitude 127.2 West. Otis is moving toward the north near 8 mph (13 km/h). A slower northward motion is expected on Monday, followed by a turn to the west and southwest by late Tuesday. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 115 mph (185 km/h) with higher gusts. Otis is a category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Some weakening is forecast to begin late Monday, with rapid weakening possible on Tuesday. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 965 mb (28.50 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 200 AM PDT. $$ Forecaster Blake
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Hurricane Otis Forecast Advisory Number 26
2017-09-18 04:36:52| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0300 UTC MON SEP 18 2017 000 WTPZ25 KNHC 180236 TCMEP5 HURRICANE OTIS FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 26 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152017 0300 UTC MON SEP 18 2017 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.0N 127.2W AT 18/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 10 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 360 DEGREES AT 7 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 965 MB EYE DIAMETER 10 NM MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 100 KT WITH GUSTS TO 120 KT. 64 KT....... 20NE 10SE 10SW 10NW. 50 KT....... 40NE 30SE 20SW 20NW. 34 KT....... 60NE 60SE 40SW 50NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 60NE 90SE 90SW 90NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.0N 127.2W AT 18/0300Z AT 18/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.6N 127.2W FORECAST VALID 18/1200Z 18.9N 127.4W MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 15SE 10SW 15NW. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 70NE 70SE 50SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 19/0000Z 19.4N 127.6W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 15SE 10SW 15NW. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 19/1200Z 19.4N 128.2W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 10NE 10SE 10SW 10NW. 50 KT... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW. 34 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 20/0000Z 19.0N 129.0W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 21/0000Z 17.6N 131.3W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 22/0000Z 16.1N 134.3W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 23/0000Z 14.8N 137.2W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.0N 127.2W NEXT ADVISORY AT 18/0900Z $$ FORECASTER BLAKE
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Hurricane Otis Graphics
2017-09-17 22:57:19| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sun, 17 Sep 2017 20:57:19 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 17 Sep 2017 21:42:19 GMT
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Hurricane Otis Forecast Discussion Number 25
2017-09-17 22:51:38| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 PM PDT Sun Sep 17 2017 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 172051 TCDEP5 Hurricane Otis Discussion Number 25 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP152017 200 PM PDT Sun Sep 17 2017 Otis continues to surprise us. Satellite images indicate that the eye has become more distinct during the past few hours, and the deep convection is wrapping around that center. The cyclone is currently undergoing rapid intensification, and the initial intensity is increased significantly to 90 kt based on a blend of the latest satellite estimates. This makes Otis a category 2 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Even though Otis is a powerful cyclone, recent ASCAT data confirms that the wind field of the system is extremely compact. Some additional strengthening is likely during the next 12 hours or so while the hurricane remains in an environment of low wind shear and over 27 deg C waters. After that time, however, lower SSTs, drier air, and an increase in wind shear should cause rapid weakening. Even though Otis will be moving over warmer waters by the end of the forecast period, the models continue to show Otis decaying due to unfavorable atmospheric conditions. The cyclone is still forecast to become a remnant low by day 4 based on the global models, but this is a low confidence prediction at this time. The hurricane continues to move slowly northward at 4 kt. A slow north to north-northwest motion is expected during the next 24 to 36 hours while Otis moves on the west side of a weak mid-level ridge. Thereafter, a faster west and west-southwest motion is expected when the weakening cyclone becomes more influenced by the low-level tradewind flow. This track forecast is not too different from the previous one, and it lies close to the various consensus aids. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 17/2100Z 17.0N 127.3W 90 KT 105 MPH 12H 18/0600Z 17.7N 127.4W 110 KT 125 MPH 24H 18/1800Z 18.6N 127.6W 90 KT 105 MPH 36H 19/0600Z 19.0N 128.0W 70 KT 80 MPH 48H 19/1800Z 18.8N 128.6W 50 KT 60 MPH 72H 20/1800Z 17.7N 130.7W 35 KT 40 MPH 96H 21/1800Z 16.4N 133.7W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 22/1800Z 15.0N 136.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
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