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Summary for Hurricane Otis (EP5/EP152017)

2017-09-17 22:51:04| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

...OTIS RAPIDLY STRENGTHENING... ...NOW A CATEGORY 2 HURRICANE... As of 2:00 PM PDT Sun Sep 17 the center of Otis was located near 17.0, -127.3 with movement N at 5 mph. The minimum central pressure was 973 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 105 mph.

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Hurricane Otis Public Advisory Number 25

2017-09-17 22:51:04| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 200 PM PDT Sun Sep 17 2017 000 WTPZ35 KNHC 172050 TCPEP5 BULLETIN Hurricane Otis Advisory Number 25 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP152017 200 PM PDT Sun Sep 17 2017 ...OTIS RAPIDLY STRENGTHENING... ...NOW A CATEGORY 2 HURRICANE... SUMMARY OF 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...17.0N 127.3W ABOUT 1200 MI...1930 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...105 MPH...165 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...973 MB...28.74 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 200 PM PDT (2100 UTC), the center of Hurricane Otis was located near latitude 17.0 North, longitude 127.3 West. Otis is moving toward the north near 5 mph (7 km/h). A slow northward or north-northwestward motion is expected during the next day or two. Maximum sustained winds have significantly increased to near 105 mph (165 km/h) with higher gusts. Some additional strengthening is possible through tonight, but weakening should commence on Monday. Otis is a very compact system. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 973 mb (28.74 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 800 PM PDT. $$ Forecaster Cangialosi

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Hurricane Otis Wind Speed Probabilities Number 25

2017-09-17 22:51:04| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 2100 UTC SUN SEP 17 2017 000 FOPZ15 KNHC 172050 PWSEP5 HURRICANE OTIS WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 25 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152017 2100 UTC SUN SEP 17 2017 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE OTIS WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 127.3 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 90 KTS...105 MPH...165 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 15N 125W 34 1 1( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) 20N 125W 34 1 3( 4) 4( 8) 3(11) 1(12) X(12) X(12) 15N 130W 34 1 1( 2) 2( 4) 1( 5) 3( 8) 2(10) X(10) 20N 130W 34 1 3( 4) 11(15) 13(28) 8(36) X(36) X(36) 20N 130W 50 X 1( 1) X( 1) 2( 3) 3( 6) X( 6) X( 6) 15N 135W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 3( 7) 20N 135W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI

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Hurricane Otis Forecast Advisory Number 25

2017-09-17 22:50:35| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 2100 UTC SUN SEP 17 2017 000 WTPZ25 KNHC 172050 TCMEP5 HURRICANE OTIS FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 25 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152017 2100 UTC SUN SEP 17 2017 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.0N 127.3W AT 17/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 360 DEGREES AT 4 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 973 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 90 KT WITH GUSTS TO 110 KT. 64 KT....... 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT....... 40NE 30SE 20SW 20NW. 34 KT....... 60NE 60SE 40SW 50NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 60NE 90SE 90SW 120NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.0N 127.3W AT 17/2100Z AT 17/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.8N 127.3W FORECAST VALID 18/0600Z 17.7N 127.4W MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 15SE 10SW 15NW. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 70NE 70SE 50SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 18/1800Z 18.6N 127.6W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 15SE 10SW 15NW. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 70NE 70SE 50SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 19/0600Z 19.0N 128.0W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 19/1800Z 18.8N 128.6W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 50NE 30SE 0SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 20/1800Z 17.7N 130.7W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 40NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 21/1800Z 16.4N 133.7W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 22/1800Z 15.0N 136.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.0N 127.3W NEXT ADVISORY AT 18/0300Z $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI

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