je.st
news
Tag: otis
Tropical Storm Otis Forecast Discussion Number 21
2017-09-16 22:42:56| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 PM PDT Sat Sep 16 2017 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 162042 TCDEP5 Tropical Storm Otis Discussion Number 21 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP152017 200 PM PDT Sat Sep 16 2017 The system has been maintaining a small area of deep convection near the low-level center for the past several hours. The latest Dvorak classification from TAFB and ADT values from CIMSS at the University of Wisconsin have increased, and now support raising the initial intensity to 35 kt, making the system a tropical storm. Otis is expected to remain over 27 deg C waters and in a low wind shear environment for the next couple of days, and this should allow the cyclone to at least maintain its strength. Beyond that time, an increase in shear, drier air, and cooler waters along the expected track should cause weakening, and Otis is now forecast to become a remnant low by day 4. The NHC intensity forecast is slightly higher than the previous one, based on the higher initial intensity. The tropical cyclone continues to drift westward in weak steering currents. The models remain in agreement that the storm should turn slowly northward during the next day or two when it moves along the west side of a weak mid-level ridge. Once the system loses convection, a turn back toward the west or west-southwest is predicted. The NHC track forecast is a little to the west of the previous one in the short term to account for the more westward initial position. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 16/2100Z 15.9N 127.0W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 17/0600Z 16.0N 127.2W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 17/1800Z 16.4N 127.3W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 18/0600Z 17.2N 127.3W 35 KT 40 MPH 48H 18/1800Z 17.9N 127.3W 35 KT 40 MPH 72H 19/1800Z 18.0N 128.3W 30 KT 35 MPH 96H 20/1800Z 17.0N 130.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 21/1800Z 15.8N 133.7W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
Tags: number
discussion
storm
tropical
Tropical Storm Otis Wind Speed Probabilities Number 21
2017-09-16 22:41:55| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 2100 UTC SAT SEP 16 2017 000 FOPZ15 KNHC 162041 PWSEP5 TROPICAL STORM OTIS WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 21 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152017 2100 UTC SAT SEP 16 2017 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM OTIS WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 127.0 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 15N 125W 34 1 X( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) 20N 125W 34 X 1( 1) X( 1) 2( 3) 2( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) 15N 130W 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) 2( 4) 2( 6) 1( 7) 20N 130W 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 4( 6) 3( 9) 1(10) $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
Summary for Tropical Storm Otis (EP5/EP152017)
2017-09-16 22:41:26| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...DEPRESSION FINALLY ELEVATED TO TROPICAL STORM OTIS... As of 2:00 PM PDT Sat Sep 16 the center of Otis was located near 15.9, -127.0 with movement W at 3 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1004 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.
Tags: summary
storm
tropical
otis
Tropical Storm Otis Public Advisory Number 21
2017-09-16 22:41:26| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 PM PDT Sat Sep 16 2017 000 WTPZ35 KNHC 162041 TCPEP5 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Otis Advisory Number 21 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP152017 200 PM PDT Sat Sep 16 2017 ...DEPRESSION FINALLY ELEVATED TO TROPICAL STORM OTIS... SUMMARY OF 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...15.9N 127.0W ABOUT 1215 MI...1950 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 3 MPH...6 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 200 PM PDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Otis was located near latitude 15.9 North, longitude 127.0 West. Otis is moving toward the west near 3 mph (6 km/h). A slow northward motion is expected to begin in a day or two. Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is forecast during the next 48 hours. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb (29.65 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 800 PM PDT. $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
Tags: number
public
storm
advisory
Tropical Storm Otis Forecast Advisory Number 21
2017-09-16 22:41:26| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 2100 UTC SAT SEP 16 2017 000 WTPZ25 KNHC 162041 TCMEP5 TROPICAL STORM OTIS FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 21 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152017 2100 UTC SAT SEP 16 2017 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.9N 127.0W AT 16/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 3 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT....... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 60NE 60SE 0SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.9N 127.0W AT 16/2100Z AT 16/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.8N 126.8W FORECAST VALID 17/0600Z 16.0N 127.2W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 17/1800Z 16.4N 127.3W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 18/0600Z 17.2N 127.3W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 18/1800Z 17.9N 127.3W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 19/1800Z 18.0N 128.3W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 20/1800Z 17.0N 130.6W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 21/1800Z 15.8N 133.7W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.9N 127.0W NEXT ADVISORY AT 17/0300Z $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
Tags: number
storm
advisory
tropical
Sites : [3] [4] [5] [6] [7] [8] [9] [10] [11] [12] [13] [14] [15] [16] [17] [18] next »