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Tropical Storm Otis Forecast Discussion Number 24
2017-09-17 16:53:02| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 AM PDT Sun Sep 17 2017 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 171452 TCDEP5 Tropical Storm Otis Discussion Number 24 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP152017 800 AM PDT Sun Sep 17 2017 Otis continues to gradually strengthen. Satellite images show hints of an eye starting to form, and convection just outside the center has been increasing during the past few hours. A blend of the TAFB Dvorak classification and ADT values from CIMSS at the University of Wisconsin supports increasing the winds to 50 kt, though this could be conservative based on the current structure. Otis has a little more time to strengthen since the storm is expected to remain in an environment of low wind shear and over 27 deg C waters. After 24 hours, however, lower SSTs, drier air, and an increase in wind shear should cause weakening. Even though SSTs warm along the expected path by the end of the forecast period, the models continue to show Otis decaying due to unfavorable atmospheric conditions. The cyclone is forecast to become a remnant low by day 4 based on the global models, but this is a low confidence prediction at this time. The tropical storm has now turned to the north, as expected, at a very slow forward speed. This slow north to north-northwest motion is expected during the next 36 hours while Otis moves on the west side of a weak mid-level ridge. Thereafter, a faster west and west-southwest motion is expected when the weakening cyclone becomes more influenced by the low-level tradewind flow. Only minor changes were made to the previous NHC track forecast, and this one lies close to the various consensus aids. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 17/1500Z 16.3N 127.3W 50 KT 60 MPH 12H 18/0000Z 17.1N 127.4W 55 KT 65 MPH 24H 18/1200Z 18.0N 127.5W 55 KT 65 MPH 36H 19/0000Z 18.8N 127.7W 50 KT 60 MPH 48H 19/1200Z 18.9N 128.3W 45 KT 50 MPH 72H 20/1200Z 18.1N 130.1W 35 KT 40 MPH 96H 21/1200Z 17.0N 133.1W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 22/1200Z 15.7N 136.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
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Tropical Storm Otis Wind Speed Probabilities Number 24
2017-09-17 16:52:37| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1500 UTC SUN SEP 17 2017 000 FOPZ15 KNHC 171452 PWSEP5 TROPICAL STORM OTIS WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 24 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152017 1500 UTC SUN SEP 17 2017 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM OTIS WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 127.3 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 50 KTS...60 MPH...95 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 15N 125W 34 1 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) 20N 125W 34 1 1( 2) 3( 5) 1( 6) 2( 8) X( 8) X( 8) 15N 130W 34 1 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) 3( 6) 2( 8) X( 8) 20N 130W 34 1 1( 2) 4( 6) 10(16) 11(27) 1(28) X(28) 20N 130W 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) X( 4) 15N 135W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) 20N 135W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
Summary for Tropical Storm Otis (EP5/EP152017)
2017-09-17 16:52:02| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...OTIS STRENGTHENS A LITTLE MORE... As of 8:00 AM PDT Sun Sep 17 the center of Otis was located near 16.3, -127.3 with movement N at 2 mph. The minimum central pressure was 999 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 60 mph.
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Tropical Storm Otis Public Advisory Number 24
2017-09-17 16:52:02| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 AM PDT Sun Sep 17 2017 000 WTPZ35 KNHC 171451 TCPEP5 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Otis Advisory Number 24 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP152017 800 AM PDT Sun Sep 17 2017 ...OTIS STRENGTHENS A LITTLE MORE... SUMMARY OF 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...16.3N 127.3W ABOUT 1220 MI...1960 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 2 MPH...4 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB...29.50 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 800 AM PDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Otis was located near latitude 16.3 North, longitude 127.3 West. Otis is moving toward the north near 2 mph (4 km/h). A slow northward or north-northwestward motion is expected during the next day or two. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts. Some additional strengthening is possible today. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 999 mb (29.50 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 200 PM PDT. $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
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Tropical Storm Otis Forecast Advisory Number 24
2017-09-17 16:52:02| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1500 UTC SUN SEP 17 2017 000 WTPZ25 KNHC 171451 TCMEP5 TROPICAL STORM OTIS FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 24 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152017 1500 UTC SUN SEP 17 2017 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.3N 127.3W AT 17/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 360 DEGREES AT 2 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 999 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT. 50 KT....... 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT....... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 60NE 60SE 60SW 60NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.3N 127.3W AT 17/1500Z AT 17/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.3N 127.3W FORECAST VALID 18/0000Z 17.1N 127.4W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 18/1200Z 18.0N 127.5W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 60NE 40SE 30SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 19/0000Z 18.8N 127.7W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 19/1200Z 18.9N 128.3W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 20/1200Z 18.1N 130.1W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 40NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 21/1200Z 17.0N 133.1W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 22/1200Z 15.7N 136.6W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.3N 127.3W NEXT ADVISORY AT 17/2100Z $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
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