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Hurricane Otis Public Advisory Number 27
2017-09-18 10:32:41| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 AM PDT Mon Sep 18 2017 000 WTPZ35 KNHC 180832 TCPEP5 BULLETIN Hurricane Otis Advisory Number 27 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP152017 200 AM PDT Mon Sep 18 2017 ...FICKLE OTIS NOW RAPIDLY WEAKENING... SUMMARY OF 200 AM PDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...18.5N 127.3W ABOUT 1165 MI...1870 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH...155 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 355 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...976 MB...28.82 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 200 AM PDT (0900 UTC), the center of Hurricane Otis was located near latitude 18.5 North, longitude 127.3 West. Otis is moving toward the north near 6 mph (9 km/h). A slower northward motion is expected later today, followed by a turn to the west and southwest by late Tuesday. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 100 mph (155 km/h) with higher gusts. Rapid weakening is forecast during the next 48 hours. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 976 mb (28.82 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 800 AM PDT. $$ Forecaster Blake
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Hurricane Otis Forecast Advisory Number 27
2017-09-18 10:32:41| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0900 UTC MON SEP 18 2017 000 WTPZ25 KNHC 180832 TCMEP5 HURRICANE OTIS FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 27 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152017 0900 UTC MON SEP 18 2017 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.5N 127.3W AT 18/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 355 DEGREES AT 5 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 976 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 85 KT WITH GUSTS TO 105 KT. 64 KT....... 20NE 10SE 10SW 10NW. 50 KT....... 40NE 30SE 20SW 20NW. 34 KT....... 60NE 60SE 40SW 50NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 60NE 60SE 90SW 90NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.5N 127.3W AT 18/0900Z AT 18/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.3N 127.3W FORECAST VALID 18/1800Z 19.2N 127.5W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 10SE 10SW 10NW. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 15SW 20NW. 34 KT... 50NE 50SE 30SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 19/0600Z 19.3N 127.9W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 19/1800Z 19.0N 128.6W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 20NW. FORECAST VALID 20/0600Z 18.2N 129.6W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 21/0600Z 16.5N 132.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 22/0600Z 14.7N 135.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 23/0600Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.5N 127.3W NEXT ADVISORY AT 18/1500Z $$ FORECASTER BLAKE
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Hurricane Otis Graphics
2017-09-18 04:44:42| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Mon, 18 Sep 2017 02:44:42 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Mon, 18 Sep 2017 02:44:42 GMT
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Hurricane Otis Forecast Discussion Number 26
2017-09-18 04:37:48| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 PM PDT Sun Sep 17 2017 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 180237 TCDEP5 Hurricane Otis Discussion Number 26 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP152017 800 PM PDT Sun Sep 17 2017 Otis's rapid intensification rate has leveled off over the past few hours, with the small clear eye not quite as distinct as earlier. Still, the cloud pattern of the hurricane remains well organized. While the 0000 UTC Dvorak estimates had subjective values near 90 kt, a 6-hourly data-T average was 105 kt. As a blend of these data, the initial wind speed is set to 100 kt. Otis is moving over marginal SSTs now, so any further intensification is expected to be slight. By tomorrow night, a combination of lower SSTs, drier air and an increase in southerly shear is forecast to cause a significant weakening of Otis. Almost all of the guidance show rapid weakening by early Tuesday, and this is the solution provided in the new NHC wind speed prediction. Global models suggest Otis will lose organized deep convection within about 3 days, so the cyclone is forecast to degenerate into a remnant low at that time. Otis is moving faster to the north, now at 7 kt. The hurricane should take a sharp westward turn in about 24 hours as it runs into a building ridge over the eastern Pacific, then turn west-southwest or southwest under that ridge. Very little change was made to the previous forecast, which lies between the model consensus and the ECMWF model. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 18/0300Z 18.0N 127.2W 100 KT 115 MPH 12H 18/1200Z 18.9N 127.4W 100 KT 115 MPH 24H 19/0000Z 19.4N 127.6W 85 KT 100 MPH 36H 19/1200Z 19.4N 128.2W 65 KT 75 MPH 48H 20/0000Z 19.0N 129.0W 45 KT 50 MPH 72H 21/0000Z 17.6N 131.3W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 22/0000Z 16.1N 134.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 23/0000Z 14.8N 137.2W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Blake
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Hurricane Otis Wind Speed Probabilities Number 26
2017-09-18 04:37:17| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0300 UTC MON SEP 18 2017 000 FOPZ15 KNHC 180236 PWSEP5 HURRICANE OTIS WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 26 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152017 0300 UTC MON SEP 18 2017 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE OTIS WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 127.2 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 100 KTS...115 MPH...185 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 20N 125W 34 1 3( 4) 4( 8) 1( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) 15N 130W 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) 3( 6) X( 6) X( 6) 20N 130W 34 1 4( 5) 16(21) 13(34) 4(38) X(38) X(38) 20N 130W 50 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 3( 5) 2( 7) X( 7) X( 7) 20N 130W 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) 15N 135W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 2( 6) $$ FORECASTER BLAKE
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