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Tropical Storm Otis Forecast Discussion Number 29
2017-09-18 22:40:03| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 PM PDT Mon Sep 18 2017 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 182039 TCDEP5 Tropical Storm Otis Discussion Number 29 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP152017 200 PM PDT Mon Sep 18 2017 Otis has continued to weaken very rapidly. Without any recent ASCAT data (or a reliable conceptual model for open-water rapid weakening), it is tough for me to estimate just how fast the cyclone is weakening. Satellite classifications remain constrained, but given the continued lack of convection over the center, the initial intensity has been lowered farther, to 40 kt. Stratocumulus clouds wrap well into the southwest quadrant, evidence that Otis is embedded within a very stable environment. Continued weakening seems inevitable, and the only real question is how soon Otis will become a remnant low. The forecast now shows the cyclone becoming a depression within 12 hours, and a remnant low within 24 hours. Given current convective trends, Otis could become a remnant low much sooner than indicated. The remnant circulation is forecast to persist for a couple days after that, in agreement with the most recent ECMWF and GFS model runs. As expected, Otis is coming to a halt, now that the circulation has become very shallow. Within the next 12 to 24 hours, the tropical storm is still expected to be steered toward the southwest by a ridge over the central Pacific, and a southwestward motion should continue until the cyclone dissipates. The NHC forecast is a little south of the previous one since Otis appears to have already begun its turn toward the southwest, and it is close to the various consensus models. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 18/2100Z 19.1N 127.6W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 19/0600Z 19.1N 128.0W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 19/1800Z 18.7N 128.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 20/0600Z 17.8N 129.7W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 20/1800Z 16.6N 130.8W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 21/1800Z 14.5N 133.2W 15 KT 15 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 22/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Zelinsky
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Summary for Tropical Storm Otis (EP5/EP152017)
2017-09-18 22:38:16| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...OTIS GOING DOWNHILL QUICKLY... As of 2:00 PM PDT Mon Sep 18 the center of Otis was located near 19.1, -127.6 with movement W at 2 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1005 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 45 mph.
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Tropical Storm Otis Public Advisory Number 29
2017-09-18 22:38:16| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 PM PDT Mon Sep 18 2017 000 WTPZ35 KNHC 182037 TCPEP5 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Otis Advisory Number 29 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP152017 200 PM PDT Mon Sep 18 2017 ...OTIS GOING DOWNHILL QUICKLY... SUMMARY OF 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...19.1N 127.6W ABOUT 1170 MI...1885 KM W OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 2 MPH...4 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 200 PM PDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Otis was located near latitude 19.1 North, longitude 127.6 West. Otis is moving toward the west near 2 mph (4 km/h). A turn toward the southwest is expected tonight, and a continued southwestward motion with an increase in forward speed is forecast through Wednesday. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional weakening is forecast during the next 48 hours, and Otis will likely become a remnant low by tomorrow afternoon. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 800 PM PDT. $$ Forecaster Zelinsky
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Tropical Storm Otis Wind Speed Probabilities Number 29
2017-09-18 22:38:09| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 2100 UTC MON SEP 18 2017 000 FOPZ15 KNHC 182037 PWSEP5 TROPICAL STORM OTIS WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 29 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152017 2100 UTC MON SEP 18 2017 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM OTIS WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 127.6 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 40 KTS...45 MPH...75 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 15N 130W 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 20N 130W 34 X 2( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) $$ FORECASTER ZELINSKY
Tropical Storm Otis Forecast Advisory Number 29
2017-09-18 22:37:26| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 2100 UTC MON SEP 18 2017 000 WTPZ25 KNHC 182037 TCMEP5 TROPICAL STORM OTIS FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 29 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152017 2100 UTC MON SEP 18 2017 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.1N 127.6W AT 18/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 2 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. 34 KT....... 60NE 60SE 0SW 50NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 60SE 60SW 90NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.1N 127.6W AT 18/2100Z AT 18/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.1N 127.4W FORECAST VALID 19/0600Z 19.1N 128.0W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 19/1800Z 18.7N 128.6W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 20/0600Z 17.8N 129.7W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 20/1800Z 16.6N 130.8W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 21/1800Z 14.5N 133.2W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 15 KT...GUSTS 20 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 22/1800Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.1N 127.6W NEXT ADVISORY AT 19/0300Z $$ FORECASTER ZELINSKY
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