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Tropical Storm Otis Graphics
2017-09-17 10:59:12| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sun, 17 Sep 2017 08:59:12 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 17 Sep 2017 09:42:44 GMT
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Summary for Tropical Storm Otis (EP5/EP152017)
2017-09-17 10:49:59| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...OTIS BARELY MOVING... As of 2:00 AM PDT Sun Sep 17 the center of Otis was located near 16.1, -127.4 with movement NW at 2 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1001 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 50 mph.
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Tropical Storm Otis Forecast Advisory Number 23
2017-09-17 10:49:29| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0900 UTC SUN SEP 17 2017 000 WTPZ25 KNHC 170849 TCMEP5 TROPICAL STORM OTIS FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 23 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152017 0900 UTC SUN SEP 17 2017 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.1N 127.4W AT 17/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 315 DEGREES AT 2 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1001 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. 34 KT....... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 60NE 60SE 0SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.1N 127.4W AT 17/0900Z AT 17/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.0N 127.4W FORECAST VALID 17/1800Z 16.6N 127.7W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 18/0600Z 17.5N 127.7W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 60NE 40SE 30SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 18/1800Z 18.3N 127.7W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 50SE 30SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 19/0600Z 18.8N 127.9W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 20/0600Z 18.1N 129.3W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 40NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 21/0600Z 17.0N 132.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 22/0600Z 15.5N 136.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.1N 127.4W NEXT ADVISORY AT 17/1500Z $$ FORECASTER ZELINSKY
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Tropical Storm Otis Graphics
2017-09-17 04:47:34| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sun, 17 Sep 2017 02:47:34 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 17 Sep 2017 03:46:30 GMT
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Tropical Storm Otis Forecast Discussion Number 22
2017-09-17 04:42:01| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 PM PDT Sat Sep 16 2017 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 170241 TCDEP5 Tropical Storm Otis Discussion Number 22 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP152017 800 PM PDT Sat Sep 16 2017 Convection has increased near the center of Otis since the last advisory, and an AMSR-2 pass around 2030 UTC indicated that the tropical storm was beginning to develop an inner-core. A consensus of Dvorak current intensity estimates from TAFB and SAB supports raising the initial intensity to 40 kt. Otis is expected to remain over moderate SSTs and within a low-shear environment for the next 24 to 36 h. Given that the storm finally appears to be supporting persistent deep convection near the center, at least a little more intensification seems likely, and this is supported by the statistical-dynamical models. After about 48 h, lower SSTs and some increase in shear should cause the cyclone to gradually weaken. The new intensity forecast is a little higher than the previous forecast for the first 48 h, but still shows Otis becoming a remnant low by 96 h. Otis has continued to move very slowly westward, and has not yet turned northward, toward a weakness in the subtropical ridge. All of the global models still indicate that this turn is imminent, but regardless of when exactly it occurs, little overall movement is expected for the next 72 h. Beyond that time, a faster west-southwest track is still anticipated as the remnants of Otis become steered primarily by the low-level tradewinds. Little change overall has been made to the track forecast. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 17/0300Z 15.9N 127.3W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 17/1200Z 16.3N 127.7W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 18/0000Z 17.0N 127.8W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 18/1200Z 17.9N 127.8W 45 KT 50 MPH 48H 19/0000Z 18.3N 128.0W 40 KT 45 MPH 72H 20/0000Z 18.3N 128.8W 35 KT 40 MPH 96H 21/0000Z 17.1N 131.4W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 22/0000Z 16.5N 134.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Zelinsky
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