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Tropical Storm Kiko Forecast Advisory Number 39
2019-09-22 04:38:07| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0300 UTC SUN SEP 22 2019 000 WTPZ23 KNHC 220237 TCMEP3 TROPICAL STORM KIKO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 39 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132019 0300 UTC SUN SEP 22 2019 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.5N 132.5W AT 22/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-SOUTHWEST OR 240 DEGREES AT 7 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1003 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. 34 KT....... 50NE 0SE 20SW 50NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 60NE 15SE 30SW 120NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.5N 132.5W AT 22/0300Z AT 22/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.8N 132.1W FORECAST VALID 22/1200Z 16.8N 133.3W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 0SE 20SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 23/0000Z 16.0N 134.5W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 0SE 20SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 23/1200Z 15.8N 135.7W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 30SE 30SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 24/0000Z 16.5N 136.8W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 60NE 40SE 30SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 25/0000Z 18.8N 138.5W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 20SE 0SW 30NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 26/0000Z 19.2N 139.8W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 27/0000Z 18.1N 140.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.5N 132.5W NEXT ADVISORY AT 22/0900Z $$ FORECASTER BERG
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Tropical Storm Kiko Graphics
2019-09-21 22:34:59| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sat, 21 Sep 2019 20:34:59 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sat, 21 Sep 2019 21:31:37 GMT
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Tropical Storm Kiko Forecast Discussion Number 38
2019-09-21 22:34:02| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 PM PDT Sat Sep 21 2019 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 212033 TCDEP3 Tropical Storm Kiko Discussion Number 38 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP132019 200 PM PDT Sat Sep 21 2019 A pair of ASCAT passes within the past 2-3 hours revealed maximum winds of 40-45 kt, so Kiko's intensity has been lowered to 45 kt. The low-level center appears to be moving out from under the convective cirrus, and the cloud-top temperatures have been warming significantly for much of the day. According to analyses from UW-CIMMS, about 15 kt of southwesterly shear is affecting the cyclone, but there is a chance that the shear will decrease a bit as Kiko loses latitude during the next 36 hours. On the negative side, Kiko will remain in a relatively dry and somewhat stable air mass, and these conditions could limit the amount of deep convection the cyclone is able to produce. The new NHC intensity forecast is very close to the IVCN consensus and the HCCA model, keeping a relatively steady intensity for the next 3 days. By days 4 and 5, an increase in shear and lower oceanic heat content should lead to weakening, and simulated infrared satellite imagery from the GFS and ECMWF suggest that Kiko's deep convection may dissipate for good by that time. As a result, the official forecast now shows Kiko becoming a remnant low by day 5. Kiko is now moving slowly west-southwestward, or 250/4 kt. An elongated mid- to upper-level trough extending from California to near the Hawaiian Islands is digging southward, which is forcing the subtropical ridge--and Kiko--to lose latitude during the next 36 hours. After that time, the western portion of the trough is forecast to cut off east of the Hawaiian Islands, causing Kiko to turn sharply northwestward on days 2-4. Once a remnant low, Kiko is then expected to be steered by lower-level flow, causing it to turn back to the southwest. The updated NHC track is a little farther south during the first 2 days to account for the adjusted initial position, otherwise it's very close the previous forecast and the various multi-model consensus aids. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 21/2100Z 18.0N 131.6W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 22/0600Z 17.4N 132.5W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 22/1800Z 16.5N 133.6W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 23/0600Z 15.9N 134.8W 40 KT 45 MPH 48H 23/1800Z 16.1N 135.9W 45 KT 50 MPH 72H 24/1800Z 18.3N 137.5W 40 KT 45 MPH 96H 25/1800Z 19.0N 138.8W 30 KT 35 MPH 120H 26/1800Z 17.7N 139.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Berg
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Summary for Tropical Storm Kiko (EP3/EP132019)
2019-09-21 22:33:06| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...KIKO NOW MOVING WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD WITH MUCH WEAKER WINDS... As of 2:00 PM PDT Sat Sep 21 the center of Kiko was located near 18.0, -131.6 with movement WSW at 5 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1003 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 50 mph.
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Tropical Storm Kiko Public Advisory Number 38
2019-09-21 22:33:06| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 PM PDT Sat Sep 21 2019 000 WTPZ33 KNHC 212032 TCPEP3 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Kiko Advisory Number 38 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP132019 200 PM PDT Sat Sep 21 2019 ...KIKO NOW MOVING WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD WITH MUCH WEAKER WINDS... SUMMARY OF 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...18.0N 131.6W ABOUT 1440 MI...2320 KM W OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WSW OR 250 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 200 PM PDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Kiko was located near latitude 18.0 North, longitude 131.6 West. Kiko is moving toward the west-southwest near 5 mph (7 km/h). A motion toward the southwest or west-southwest is forecast to occur through Sunday night, followed by a westward to northwestward motion Monday and Tuesday. Satellite-derived wind data indicate that maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is forecast during the next several days. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1003 mb (29.62 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 800 PM PDT. $$ Forecaster Berg
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