je.st
news
Tag: kiko
Tropical Storm Kiko Forecast Discussion Number 39
2019-09-22 04:41:11| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 500 PM HST Sat Sep 21 2019 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 220241 TCDEP3 Tropical Storm Kiko Discussion Number 39 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP132019 500 PM HST Sat Sep 21 2019 Kiko is only producing a relatively small patch of deep convection to the northeast of its center, the result of continued southwesterly shear and the cyclone moving through what appears to be a stable environment. The initial intensity is held at 45 kt based on the earlier ASCAT data, but it's possible the maximum winds have decreased since then. Given Kiko's structure and its environment, some weakening is expected during the next day or so. However, the cyclone is moving southwestward, toward slightly warmer waters, and this could allow for some restrengthening in 36-48 hours, which is shown by many of the intensity models. Another round of shear and cooler waters should lead to weakening after 48 hours, and Kiko is expected to degenerate into a remnant low by day 5, if not sooner. Kiko is moving a little faster toward the west-southwest, or 240/7 kt. An elongated mid- to upper-level trough extending from California to near the Hawaiian Islands is digging southward, which is forcing the subtropical ridge--and Kiko--to lose latitude during the next 36 hours. After that time, the western portion of the trough is forecast to cut off east of the Hawaiian Islands, causing Kiko to turn sharply northwestward on days 2-4. Once a remnant low, Kiko is then expected to be steered by lower-level flow, causing it to turn back to the southwest. Only small adjustments to the NHC track forecast were made on this cycle, and it still depicts a wave-like trajectory through day 5, as has been the case for several days. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 22/0300Z 17.5N 132.5W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 22/1200Z 16.8N 133.3W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 23/0000Z 16.0N 134.5W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 23/1200Z 15.8N 135.7W 45 KT 50 MPH 48H 24/0000Z 16.5N 136.8W 50 KT 60 MPH 72H 25/0000Z 18.8N 138.5W 40 KT 45 MPH 96H 26/0000Z 19.2N 139.8W 30 KT 35 MPH 120H 27/0000Z 18.1N 140.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Berg
Tags: number
discussion
storm
tropical
Tropical Storm Kiko Graphics
2019-09-22 04:39:52| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sun, 22 Sep 2019 02:39:52 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 22 Sep 2019 03:31:37 GMT
Tags: graphics
storm
tropical
kiko
Summary for Tropical Storm Kiko (EP3/EP132019)
2019-09-22 04:38:34| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...KIKO STRUGGLING TO PRODUCE SIGNIFICANT THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY... As of 5:00 PM HST Sat Sep 21 the center of Kiko was located near 17.5, -132.5 with movement WSW at 8 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1003 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 50 mph.
Tags: summary
storm
tropical
kiko
Tropical Storm Kiko Public Advisory Number 39
2019-09-22 04:38:34| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 500 PM HST Sat Sep 21 2019 000 WTPZ33 KNHC 220238 TCPEP3 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Kiko Advisory Number 39 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP132019 500 PM HST Sat Sep 21 2019 ...KIKO STRUGGLING TO PRODUCE SIGNIFICANT THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY... SUMMARY OF 500 PM HST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...17.5N 132.5W ABOUT 1510 MI...2430 KM W OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WSW OR 240 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 PM HST (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Kiko was located near latitude 17.5 North, longitude 132.5 West. Kiko is moving toward the west-southwest near 8 mph (13 km/h). A motion toward the southwest or west-southwest is forecast to occur through Sunday night, followed by a westward to northwestward motion Monday and Tuesday. Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts. Some fluctuations in intensity are expected during the next several days. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1003 mb (29.62 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 PM HST. $$ Forecaster Berg
Tags: number
public
storm
advisory
Tropical Storm Kiko Wind Speed Probabilities Number 39
2019-09-22 04:38:34| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0300 UTC SUN SEP 22 2019 000 FOPZ13 KNHC 220238 PWSEP3 TROPICAL STORM KIKO WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 39 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132019 0300 UTC SUN SEP 22 2019 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM KIKO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 132.5 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 45 KTS...50 MPH...85 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 15N 135W 34 X 10(10) 24(34) 3(37) 1(38) X(38) 1(39) 15N 135W 50 X X( X) 8( 8) 1( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) 15N 135W 64 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) 20N 135W 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4) 5( 9) 1(10) 1(11) 15N 140W 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 5( 8) 1( 9) 1(10) 20N 140W 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 11(12) 10(22) 2(24) 20N 140W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) $$ FORECASTER BERG
Sites : [4] [5] [6] [7] [8] [9] [10] [11] [12] [13] [14] [15] [16] [17] [18] [19] [20] [21] [22] [23] next »