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Tropical Storm KIKO Graphics
2013-08-31 23:07:00| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sat, 31 Aug 2013 20:46:11 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sat, 31 Aug 2013 21:03:43 GMT
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Tropical Storm KIKO Forecast Discussion Number 4
2013-08-31 22:45:03| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 PM PDT SAT AUG 31 2013 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 312044 TCDEP1 TROPICAL STORM KIKO DISCUSSION NUMBER 4 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112013 200 PM PDT SAT AUG 31 2013 SURPRISINGLY...THE TROPICAL CYCLONE HAS RAPIDLY INTENSIFIED THIS AFTERNOON AND IS NOW TROPICAL STORM KIKO. A RAGGED EYE HAS INTERMITTENTLY APPEARED IN THE CENTER OF A SMALL CDO IN THE VISIBLE IMAGERY...WHILE MICROWAVE IMAGERY FROM A 1714Z METOP-A AMSU PASS ALSO SHOWED A BANDING EYE DEVELOPING. HOWEVER...THE SUBJECTIVE DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS AT 1800Z CAME IN QUITE LOW WITH INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF NEAR 35 KT. EVEN THE ADT ONLY SUGGESTED ABOUT 45 KT...AS THE EYE IS NOT YET DISTINCT IN THE INFRARED IMAGERY. BASED UPON THE RAPID RECENT DEVELOPMENT OBSERVED IN THE IMAGERY...THE INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 50 KT WITH A LARGER THAN USUAL AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY. THE RAGGED EYE ALLOWS FOR A RATHER CONFIDENT ASSESSMENT OF THE MOTION OF THE STORM AT 335/4. THE CYCLONE SHOULD CONTINUE TO MOVE AT THIS SLOW FORWARD SPEED FOR THE NEXT DAY AND A HALF OR SO...PRIMARILY DUE TO STEERING PROVIDED BY A MID-LEVEL RIDGE NORTHEAST OF THE CYCLONE. AS THE CYCLONE WINDS DOWN IN ABOUT TWO DAYS...IT MAY NEARLY STALL AS IT BECOMES EMBEDDED WITHIN VERY LIGHT LOW-LEVEL FLOW. THE TRACK FORECAST IS SLIGHTLY TO THE RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY DUE TO A SHIFT IN THE TVCE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS. THE UNEXPECTED RAPID INTENSIFICATION MAY BE ASCRIBED TO THE LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND WARM AND MOIST CONDITIONS THAT THE CYCLONE IS CURRENTLY EMBEDDED IN. HOWEVER...NONE OF OUR STATISTICAL NOR DYNAMICAL MODELS HAD A CLUE THAT THE SYSTEM WOULD INTENSIFY AS MUCH AS IT DID. GIVEN THE CURRENT TRENDS...ITS INTENSITY IS PREDICTED TO PEAK AS A HIGH END TROPICAL STORM...BUT EVEN A CATEGORY 1 HURRICANE IS NOT UNREALISTIC. COOLER SSTS AND A MORE STABLE ATMOSPHERE LIE ALONG THE PROJECTED PATH OF THE SYSTEM STARTING IN ABOUT A DAY AND A HALF...AND WEAKENING SHOULD COMMENCE THEN. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS WELL ABOVE ALL GUIDANCE DUE TO THE MUCH STRONGER INITIAL CONDITIONS. THE CYCLONE IS LIKELY TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW IN ABOUT THREE DAYS AND DISSIPATE IN ABOUT FOUR DAYS...WHILE REMAINING NEARLY STATIONARY WEST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 31/2100Z 19.3N 116.2W 50 KT 60 MPH 12H 01/0600Z 20.1N 116.4W 60 KT 70 MPH 24H 01/1800Z 21.0N 116.5W 60 KT 70 MPH 36H 02/0600Z 21.7N 116.5W 50 KT 60 MPH 48H 02/1800Z 22.1N 116.7W 40 KT 45 MPH 72H 03/1800Z 22.3N 117.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 04/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER LANDSEA
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Summary for Tropical Storm KIKO (EP1/EP112013)
2013-08-31 22:44:38| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...DEPRESSION HAS RAPIDLY INTENSIFIED TO BECOME TROPICAL STORM KIKO... As of 2:00 PM PDT Sat Aug 31 the center of KIKO was located near 19.3, -116.2 with movement NNW at 5 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1000 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 60 mph.
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Tropical Storm KIKO Public Advisory Number 4
2013-08-31 22:44:38| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 PM PDT SAT AUG 31 2013 000 WTPZ31 KNHC 312044 TCPEP1 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM KIKO ADVISORY NUMBER 4 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112013 200 PM PDT SAT AUG 31 2013 ...DEPRESSION HAS RAPIDLY INTENSIFIED TO BECOME TROPICAL STORM KIKO... SUMMARY OF 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...19.3N 116.2W ABOUT 475 MI...765 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 335 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ AT 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM KIKO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 116.2 WEST. KIKO IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 5 MPH...7 KM/H. THE TROPICAL STORM IS EXPECTED TO TURN TOWARD THE NORTH AND SLOW ITS FORWARD MOTION DURING THE NEXT TWO DAYS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 60 MPH...95 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME ADDITIONAL INTENSIFICATION COULD OCCUR TODAY OR TOMORROW...BEFORE WEAKENING SHOULD BEGIN LATE SUNDAY OR MONDAY. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 60 MILES...95 KM FROM THE CENTER. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1000 MB...29.53 INCHES. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- NONE NEXT ADVISORY ------------- NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...800 PM PDT. $$ FORECASTER LANDSEA
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Tropical Storm KIKO Wind Speed Probabilities Number 4
2013-08-31 22:44:32| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 2100 UTC SAT AUG 31 2013 000 FOPZ11 KNHC 312044 PWSEP1 TROPICAL STORM KIKO WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 4 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112013 2100 UTC SAT AUG 31 2013 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM KIKO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 116.2 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 50 KTS...60 MPH...95 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME I. MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITY TABLE CHANCES THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEED OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL BE WITHIN ANY OF THE FOLLOWING CATEGORIES AT EACH OFFICIAL FORECAST TIME DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS. PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT. X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT. - - - MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITIES - - - VALID TIME 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU FORECAST HOUR 12 24 36 48 72 96 120 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - DISSIPATED X X 3 9 29 NA NA TROP DEPRESSION 1 3 13 27 45 NA NA TROPICAL STORM 67 61 68 57 25 NA NA HURRICANE 33 36 17 7 1 NA NA - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - HUR CAT 1 32 32 15 6 1 NA NA HUR CAT 2 1 3 2 1 X NA NA HUR CAT 3 X 1 X X X NA NA HUR CAT 4 X X X X X NA NA HUR CAT 5 X X X X X NA NA - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - FCST MAX WIND 60KT 60KT 50KT 40KT 25KT NA NA II. WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE IP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT ISLA CLARION 34 8 4(12) 1(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) $$ FORECASTER LANDSEA
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