je.st
news
Tag: kiko
Tropical Storm KIKO Forecast Discussion Number 5
2013-09-01 04:40:34| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 PM PDT SAT AUG 31 2013 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 010240 TCDEP1 TROPICAL STORM KIKO DISCUSSION NUMBER 5 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112013 800 PM PDT SAT AUG 31 2013 KIKO IS CONTINUING TO INTENSIFY AT A FAST PACE. MICROWAVE IMAGES INDICATE THAT THE STORM HAS AN INNER CORE...AND EVEN THE LAST FEW VISIBLE IMAGES SUGGESTED A WEAK EYE FEATURE WITHIN A MORE SYMMETRICAL CDO. THE INTENSITY IS SET TO 60 KT...A BIT HIGHER THAN THE LATEST SATELLITE CLASSIFICATIONS...WHICH HAVE HAD A HARD TIME KEEPING UP WITH THIS CYCLONE. THE PACE OF STRENGTHENING SHOULD DIMINISH SOON AS KIKO IS MOVING ACROSS COOLING WATERS...AND WILL BE CROSSING THE 26C ISOTHERM WITHIN 12-24H. AFTER THAT TIME...A MORE STEADY DECREASE IN STRENGTH SEEMS PROBABLE DUE TO INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR...COOLER WATERS...AND ENTRAINMENT OF DRY AIR ALOFT. THE LATEST NHC PREDICTION IS CLOSE TO A BLEND OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...THE INTENSITY CONSENSUS...AND THE FLORIDA STATE SUPERENSEMBLE. THE CYCLONE IS LIKELY TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW IN ABOUT THREE DAYS AND DISSIPATE IN ABOUT FOUR DAYS...CONSISTENT WITH THE GLOBAL MODEL SOLUTIONS. KIKO HAS BEEN SURPRISINGLY MOVING A BIT EAST OF NORTH DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS...010/6. IT APPEARS TO BE ROTATING AROUND THE EAST SIDE OF A MID/UPPER-LEVEL LOW...WHICH SHOULD CAUSE THE STORM TO GRADUALLY TURN TO THE NORTH AND NORTH-NORTHWEST OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO. MODEL GUIDANCE HAS TAKEN A NOTABLE SHIFT TO THE EAST...AND THE NHC FORECAST IS SHIFTED EASTWARD BY 30-45 NMI AT MOST TIME PERIODS ON THIS PACKAGE. IN 36-48H...THE CYCLONE WILL LIKELY DECOUPLE VERTICALLY...AND THEN BECOME NEARLY STATIONARY FOR A COUPLE OF DAYS IN LIGHT LOW-LEVEL FLOW. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 01/0300Z 20.0N 115.8W 60 KT 70 MPH 12H 01/1200Z 20.8N 115.8W 65 KT 75 MPH 24H 02/0000Z 21.6N 116.0W 60 KT 70 MPH 36H 02/1200Z 22.2N 116.1W 50 KT 60 MPH 48H 03/0000Z 22.3N 116.2W 40 KT 45 MPH 72H 04/0000Z 22.2N 116.3W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 05/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER BLAKE
Tags: number
discussion
storm
tropical
Summary for Tropical Storm KIKO (EP1/EP112013)
2013-09-01 04:38:34| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...KIKO CLOSE TO HURRICANE STRENGTH... As of 8:00 PM PDT Sat Aug 31 the center of KIKO was located near 20.0, -115.8 with movement N at 7 mph. The minimum central pressure was 993 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 70 mph.
Tags: summary
storm
tropical
kiko
Tropical Storm KIKO Public Advisory Number 5
2013-09-01 04:38:34| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 PM PDT SAT AUG 31 2013 000 WTPZ31 KNHC 010238 TCPEP1 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM KIKO ADVISORY NUMBER 5 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112013 800 PM PDT SAT AUG 31 2013 ...KIKO CLOSE TO HURRICANE STRENGTH... SUMMARY OF 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...20.0N 115.8W ABOUT 430 MI...690 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 10 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...993 MB...29.32 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ AT 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM KIKO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 20.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 115.8 WEST. KIKO IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 7 MPH...11 KM/H. THIS GENERAL MOTION WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED ON SUNDAY...AND A TURN TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST IS ANTICIPATED BY MONDAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 70 MPH...110 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. KIKO COULD BECOME A HURRICANE ON SUNDAY BEFORE WEAKENING LIKELY BEGINS ON MONDAY. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES...110 KM FROM THE CENTER. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 993 MB...29.32 INCHES. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- NONE NEXT ADVISORY ------------- NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...200 AM PDT. $$ FORECASTER BLAKE
Tags: number
public
storm
advisory
Tropical Storm KIKO Wind Speed Probabilities Number 5
2013-09-01 04:38:34| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0300 UTC SUN SEP 01 2013 000 FOPZ11 KNHC 010238 PWSEP1 TROPICAL STORM KIKO WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 5 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112013 0300 UTC SUN SEP 01 2013 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM KIKO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 20.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 115.8 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 60 KTS...70 MPH...110 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME I. MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITY TABLE CHANCES THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEED OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL BE WITHIN ANY OF THE FOLLOWING CATEGORIES AT EACH OFFICIAL FORECAST TIME DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS. PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT. X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT. - - - MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITIES - - - VALID TIME 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI FORECAST HOUR 12 24 36 48 72 96 120 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - DISSIPATED X X 3 9 21 NA NA TROP DEPRESSION X 3 13 28 44 NA NA TROPICAL STORM 41 62 68 57 33 NA NA HURRICANE 59 35 16 6 2 NA NA - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - HUR CAT 1 57 31 14 6 2 NA NA HUR CAT 2 2 3 2 1 X NA NA HUR CAT 3 X 1 X X X NA NA HUR CAT 4 X X X X X NA NA HUR CAT 5 X X X X X NA NA - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - FCST MAX WIND 65KT 60KT 50KT 40KT 30KT NA NA II. WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE IP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT ISLA CLARION 34 1 2( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) $$ FORECASTER BLAKE
Tropical Storm KIKO Forecast Advisory Number 5
2013-09-01 04:38:00| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0300 UTC SUN SEP 01 2013 000 WTPZ21 KNHC 010237 TCMEP1 TROPICAL STORM KIKO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 5 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112013 0300 UTC SUN SEP 01 2013 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.0N 115.8W AT 01/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 10 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 10 DEGREES AT 6 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 993 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 60 KT WITH GUSTS TO 75 KT. 50 KT....... 20NE 20SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT....... 60NE 50SE 40SW 40NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 60NE 50SE 40SW 40NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.0N 115.8W AT 01/0300Z AT 01/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.7N 115.9W FORECAST VALID 01/1200Z 20.8N 115.8W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT... 70NE 60SE 50SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 02/0000Z 21.6N 116.0W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT... 70NE 60SE 50SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 02/1200Z 22.2N 116.1W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 03/0000Z 22.3N 116.2W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 04/0000Z 22.2N 116.3W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 05/0000Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 20.0N 115.8W NEXT ADVISORY AT 01/0900Z $$ FORECASTER BLAKE
Tags: number
storm
advisory
tropical
Sites : [58] [59] [60] [61] [62] [63] [64] [65] [66] [67] [68] [69] [70] next »