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Tropical Depression KIKO Forecast Discussion Number 11
2013-09-02 16:35:21| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 AM PDT MON SEP 02 2013 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 021435 TCDEP1 TROPICAL DEPRESSION KIKO DISCUSSION NUMBER 11 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112013 800 AM PDT MON SEP 02 2013 KIKO HAS ONLY BEEN DEVOID OF DEEP CONVECTION SINCE ABOUT 0700 UTC AND SOME SHALLOW CONVECTION IS STILL OCCURRING NEAR THE CENTER AND IN THE NORTHERN QUADRANT. AS A RESULT...KIKO IS BEING MAINTAINED AS A 30-KT DEPRESSION...WHICH IS CONSISTENT WITH AN AVERAGE OF ALL AVAILABLE SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES. SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THE UPPER- AND LOWER-LEVEL CIRCULATIONS OF THE CYCLONE HAVE NOW DECOUPLED...SO KIKO SHOULD GRADUALLY SPIN DOWN AND BECOME A REMNANT LOW LATER TODAY AS IT MOVES OVER COOLER WATERS AND INTO A MORE STABLE ENVIRONMENT. DISSIPATION OF THE REMNANT LOW IS EXPECTED BY 48 HOURS...BUT IT COULD OCCUR SOONER THAN THAT. THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS NOW 325/02 KT. AS INDICATED IN PREVIOUS ADVISORIES...KIKO HAS SLOWED DOWN CONSIDERABLY. THE CYCLONE IS FORECAST TO BASICALLY MEANDER IN THE SAME GENERAL AREA WITHIN A REGION OF WEAK LOW-LEVEL STEERING CURRENTS UNTIL IT DISSIPATES. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 02/1500Z 22.9N 116.4W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 03/0000Z 23.2N 116.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 24H 03/1200Z 23.5N 116.7W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 04/0000Z 23.7N 116.8W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 04/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER STEWART
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Tropical Depression KIKO Wind Speed Probabilities Number 11
2013-09-02 16:34:42| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1500 UTC MON SEP 02 2013 000 FOPZ11 KNHC 021434 PWSEP1 TROPICAL DEPRESSION KIKO WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 11 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112013 1500 UTC MON SEP 02 2013 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION KIKO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 22.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 116.4 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME I. MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITY TABLE CHANCES THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEED OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL BE WITHIN ANY OF THE FOLLOWING CATEGORIES AT EACH OFFICIAL FORECAST TIME DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS. PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT. X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT. - - - MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITIES - - - VALID TIME 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT FORECAST HOUR 12 24 36 48 72 96 120 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - DISSIPATED 6 26 30 NA NA NA NA TROP DEPRESSION 79 57 48 NA NA NA NA TROPICAL STORM 15 17 21 NA NA NA NA HURRICANE X X 1 NA NA NA NA - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - HUR CAT 1 X X 1 NA NA NA NA HUR CAT 2 X X X NA NA NA NA HUR CAT 3 X X X NA NA NA NA HUR CAT 4 X X X NA NA NA NA HUR CAT 5 X X X NA NA NA NA - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - FCST MAX WIND 25KT 20KT 20KT NA NA NA NA II. WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE IP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER STEWART
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Summary for Tropical Depression KIKO (EP1/EP112013)
2013-09-02 16:34:12| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...KIKO EXPECTED TO WEAKEN INTO A REMNANT LOW LATER TODAY... As of 8:00 AM PDT Mon Sep 2 the center of KIKO was located near 22.9, -116.4 with movement NW at 2 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1005 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.
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kiko
Tropical Depression KIKO Public Advisory Number 11
2013-09-02 16:34:12| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 AM PDT MON SEP 02 2013 000 WTPZ31 KNHC 021434 TCPEP1 BULLETIN TROPICAL DEPRESSION KIKO ADVISORY NUMBER 11 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112013 800 AM PDT MON SEP 02 2013 ...KIKO EXPECTED TO WEAKEN INTO A REMNANT LOW LATER TODAY... SUMMARY OF 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...22.9N 116.4W ABOUT 415 MI...665 KM W OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 325 DEGREES AT 2 MPH...4 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ AT 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION KIKO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 22.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 116.4 WEST. THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 2 MPH...4 KM/H... AND A SLOW MOTION TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR NORTH-NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. KIKO SHOULD CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AND DEGENERATE INTO A REMNANT LOW LATER TODAY. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1005 MB...29.68 INCHES. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- NONE. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...200 PM PDT. $$ FORECASTER STEWART
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Tropical Depression KIKO Forecast Advisory Number 11
2013-09-02 16:33:40| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1500 UTC MON SEP 02 2013 000 WTPZ21 KNHC 021433 TCMEP1 TROPICAL DEPRESSION KIKO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 11 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112013 1500 UTC MON SEP 02 2013 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.9N 116.4W AT 02/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 325 DEGREES AT 2 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. 12 FT SEAS.. 45NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.9N 116.4W AT 02/1500Z AT 02/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 22.8N 116.3W FORECAST VALID 03/0000Z 23.2N 116.6W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 03/1200Z 23.5N 116.7W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 04/0000Z 23.7N 116.8W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 04/1200Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 22.9N 116.4W NEXT ADVISORY AT 02/2100Z $$ FORECASTER STEWART
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