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Tropical Storm KIKO Public Advisory Number 8
2013-09-01 22:34:38| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 PM PDT SUN SEP 01 2013 000 WTPZ31 KNHC 012034 TCPEP1 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM KIKO ADVISORY NUMBER 8 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112013 200 PM PDT SUN SEP 01 2013 ...KIKO WEAKENS AS IT MOVES SLOWLY NORTHWARD... SUMMARY OF 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...21.8N 115.7W ABOUT 380 MI...610 KM W OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 350 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...996 MB...29.41 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ AT 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM KIKO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 21.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 115.7 WEST. KIKO IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 6 MPH...9 KM/H...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TODAY. A TURN TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST WITH A FURTHER DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS FORECAST TO OCCUR BY MONDAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 60 MPH...95 KM/H... WITH HIGHER GUSTS. GRADUAL WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND KIKO IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION ON MONDAY...AND A REMNANT LOW BY TUESDAY. TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES...110 KM FROM THE CENTER. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 996 MB...29.41 INCHES. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- NONE. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...800 PM PDT. $$ FORECASTER STEWART
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Tropical Storm KIKO Wind Speed Probabilities Number 8
2013-09-01 22:34:38| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 2100 UTC SUN SEP 01 2013 000 FOPZ11 KNHC 012034 PWSEP1 TROPICAL STORM KIKO WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 8 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112013 2100 UTC SUN SEP 01 2013 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM KIKO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 21.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 115.7 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 50 KTS...60 MPH...95 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME I. MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITY TABLE CHANCES THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEED OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL BE WITHIN ANY OF THE FOLLOWING CATEGORIES AT EACH OFFICIAL FORECAST TIME DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS. PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT. X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT. - - - MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITIES - - - VALID TIME 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI FORECAST HOUR 12 24 36 48 72 96 120 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - DISSIPATED 1 7 22 33 36 NA NA TROP DEPRESSION 13 36 49 45 45 NA NA TROPICAL STORM 86 56 29 21 19 NA NA HURRICANE X 2 1 1 X NA NA - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - HUR CAT 1 X 2 1 1 X NA NA HUR CAT 2 X X X X X NA NA HUR CAT 3 X X X X X NA NA HUR CAT 4 X X X X X NA NA HUR CAT 5 X X X X X NA NA - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - FCST MAX WIND 40KT 35KT 25KT 20KT 20KT NA NA II. WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE IP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER STEWART
Tropical Storm KIKO Forecast Advisory Number 8
2013-09-01 22:34:36| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 2100 UTC SUN SEP 01 2013 000 WTPZ21 KNHC 012034 TCMEP1 TROPICAL STORM KIKO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 8 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112013 2100 UTC SUN SEP 01 2013 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.8N 115.7W AT 01/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 350 DEGREES AT 5 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 996 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT. 50 KT....... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT....... 60NE 50SE 30SW 40NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 75NE 50SE 40SW 40NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.8N 115.7W AT 01/2100Z AT 01/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 21.6N 115.6W FORECAST VALID 02/0600Z 22.5N 115.9W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 40SE 20SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 02/1800Z 23.1N 116.0W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 30SE 0SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 03/0600Z 23.5N 116.2W MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 03/1800Z 23.7N 116.3W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 04/1800Z 24.0N 116.4W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 05/1800Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 21.8N 115.7W NEXT ADVISORY AT 02/0300Z $$ FORECASTER STEWART
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Tropical Storm KIKO Graphics
2013-09-01 17:08:08| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sun, 01 Sep 2013 14:35:57 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 01 Sep 2013 15:04:44 GMT
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Tropical Storm KIKO Forecast Discussion Number 7
2013-09-01 16:35:06| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 AM PDT SUN SEP 01 2013 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 011434 TCDEP1 TROPICAL STORM KIKO DISCUSSION NUMBER 7 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112013 800 AM PDT SUN SEP 01 2013 A TRMM MICROWAVE OVERPASS AT 1122Z INDICATED THAT KIKO POSSESSED A WELL-DEFINED MID-LEVEL EYE...BUT THERE WAS NO CLOSED LOW-LEVEL EYE BENEATH IT. SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES RANGE FROM A CIRA AMSU ESTIMATE OF 42 KT TO AS HIGH AS 72 KT FROM BOTH CIMSS AMSU AND ADT ESTIMATES. ALTHOUGH KIKO COULD HAVE BRIEFLY BEEN A HURRICANE...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS BEING MAINTAINED AT 60 KT...WHICH IS SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN THE T3.5/55 KT ESTIMATES FROM BOTH TAFB AND SAB. THE INITIAL MOTION IS NOW 360/06 KT. KIKO IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE MOVING NORTHWARD TODAY AND GRADUALLY SLOW DOWN BEFORE TURNING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY WHILE THE CYCLONE WEAKENS AND MOVES AROUND THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF A MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL LOW. AS KIKO WEAKENS AND BECOMES A MORE VERTICALLY SHALLOW SYSTEM...IT COULD GET TRAPPED AND BECOME STATIONARY IN THE WEAK LOW-LEVEL FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH A LARGE-SCALE CYCLONIC GYRE THAT HAS BEEN A PERSISTENT FEATURE ACROSS THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC THE PAST COUPLE OF WEEKS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY TRACK...AND LIES CLOSE TO THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS TVCE. KIKO IS STILL OVER SSTS NEAR 27C...BUT IT WILL BE MOVING OVER SUB-26C OCEAN TEMPERATURES WITHIN THE NEXT 12 HOURS OR SO...WHICH SHOULD ACT TO INDUCE STEADY WEAKENING. ALTHOUGH THE VERTICAL SHEAR IS LOW...THE ENTRAINMENT OF DRIER AND MORE STABLE AIR TO THE NORTH OF THE CYCLONE SHOULD ALSO HASTEN THE WEAKENING OF KIKO. THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW BY 72 HOURS WHEN THE LOW- AND UPPER-LEVEL CIRCULATIONS DECOUPLE AFTER THE SYSTEM LOSES MOST...IF NOT ALL...OF ITS CONVECTION OVER 23-24C SSTS BY THAT TIME. THE NHC INTENSITY FORECAST FOLLOWS THE TREND OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...AS WELL AS THE SHIPS AND LGEM STATISTICAL-DYNAMICAL INTENSITY MODELS. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 01/1500Z 21.3N 115.6W 60 KT 70 MPH 12H 02/0000Z 21.9N 115.8W 55 KT 65 MPH 24H 02/1200Z 22.6N 116.0W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 03/0000Z 23.1N 116.1W 40 KT 45 MPH 48H 03/1200Z 23.4N 116.2W 30 KT 35 MPH 72H 04/1200Z 23.8N 116.4W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 05/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER STEWART
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