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Tropical Depression KIKO Forecast Advisory Number 10
2013-09-02 10:38:10| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0900 UTC MON SEP 02 2013 000 WTPZ21 KNHC 020838 TCMEP1 TROPICAL DEPRESSION KIKO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 10 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112013 0900 UTC MON SEP 02 2013 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.7N 116.3W AT 02/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 335 DEGREES AT 4 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. 12 FT SEAS.. 45NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.7N 116.3W AT 02/0900Z AT 02/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 22.6N 116.2W FORECAST VALID 02/1800Z 23.2N 116.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 03/0600Z 23.5N 116.6W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 03/1800Z 23.7N 116.7W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 04/0600Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 22.7N 116.3W NEXT ADVISORY AT 02/1500Z $$ FORECASTER BROWN
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Tropical Storm KIKO Graphics
2013-09-02 05:08:00| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Mon, 02 Sep 2013 02:36:29 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Mon, 02 Sep 2013 03:04:43 GMT
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kiko
Tropical Storm KIKO Forecast Discussion Number 9
2013-09-02 04:35:39| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 PM PDT SUN SEP 01 2013 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 020235 TCDEP1 TROPICAL STORM KIKO DISCUSSION NUMBER 9 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112013 800 PM PDT SUN SEP 01 2013 DEEP CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH KIKO IS FADING...AND DVORAK DATA T-NUMBERS ARE COMING DOWN FAST. OUT OF RESPECT FOR THE EARLIER SCATTEROMETER DATA AND THE DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY RULE...THE ADVISORY WIND SPEED IS SET...PERHAPS GENEROUSLY...AT 45 KT. KIKO IS MOVING OVER PROGRESSIVELY COOLER WATERS AND INTO A MORE STABLE AIR MASS. THESE FACTORS SHOULD CAUSE CONTINUED WEAKENING...AND THE SYSTEM WILL PROBABLY BECOME A DEPRESSION WITHIN 24 HOURS AND DEGENERATE INTO A REMNANT LOW IN 36 HOURS...OR SOONER. THE NHC INTENSITY FORECAST IS NOT FAR FROM THE MODEL CONSENSUS OR THE PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST. LAST-LIGHT VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THE STORM HAS ALREADY TURNED TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST AND THE INITIAL MOTION IS ABOUT 340/5. A WEAK MID- TO LOW-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE CYCLONE SHOULD MAINTAIN A NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. WITH THE SYSTEM EXPECTED TO BECOME A SHALLOW CYCLONE IN A DAY OR SO...THE FORWARD SPEED IS LIKELY TO SLOW TO A CRAWL WITHIN THE WEAK LOW-LEVEL STEERING CURRENTS TO THE WEST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA. THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE LATEST DYNAMICAL MODEL CONSENSUS AND JUST A TAD TO THE WEST OF THE PREVIOUS NHC FORECAST. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 02/0300Z 22.5N 116.1W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 02/1200Z 23.1N 116.3W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 03/0000Z 23.5N 116.5W 30 KT 35 MPH 36H 03/1200Z 23.9N 116.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 04/0000Z 24.1N 116.8W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 05/0000Z 24.2N 117.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 06/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER PASCH
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Summary for Tropical Storm KIKO (EP1/EP112013)
2013-09-02 04:35:35| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...KIKO CONTINUES TO WEAKEN WHILE MOVING SLOWLY NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD... As of 8:00 PM PDT Sun Sep 1 the center of KIKO was located near 22.5, -116.1 with movement NNW at 6 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1000 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 50 mph.
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kiko
Tropical Storm KIKO Public Advisory Number 9
2013-09-02 04:35:35| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 PM PDT SUN SEP 01 2013 000 WTPZ31 KNHC 020235 TCPEP1 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM KIKO ADVISORY NUMBER 9 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112013 800 PM PDT SUN SEP 01 2013 ...KIKO CONTINUES TO WEAKEN WHILE MOVING SLOWLY NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD... SUMMARY OF 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...22.5N 116.1W ABOUT 395 MI...640 KM W OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 340 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ AT 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM KIKO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 22.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 116.1 WEST. KIKO IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 6 MPH...9 KM/H...AND A CONTINUED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION AT A SLOWER FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 50 MPH...85 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. WEAKENING IS FORECAST...AND KIKO SHOULD BECOME A DEPRESSION BY MONDAY...AND DEGENERATE INTO A REMNANT LOW BY TUESDAY. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES...110 KM FROM THE CENTER. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1000 MB...29.53 INCHES. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- NONE. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...200 AM PDT. $$ FORECASTER PASCH
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