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Tropical Storm KIKO Forecast Discussion Number 6
2013-09-01 10:37:35| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 AM PDT SUN SEP 01 2013 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 010837 TCDEP1 TROPICAL STORM KIKO DISCUSSION NUMBER 6 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112013 200 AM PDT SUN SEP 01 2013 THE RAPID INTENSIFICATION OF KIKO SEEMS TO HAVE HALTED TONIGHT. RECENT MICROWAVE IMAGES INDICATE THAT THE TROPICAL STORM HAS A TIGHT INNER CORE...BUT THE CDO HAS BECOME SOMEWHAT LESS SYMMETRIC WITH THE CENTER NOW CLOSER TO THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE DEEP CONVECTION. THIS MAY BE THE RESULT OF SOME SOUTHWESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEER OVER THE CYCLONE. THE INITIAL WIND SPEED REMAINS 60 KT...WHICH IS SUPPORTED BY RECENT ASCAT DATA. KIKO IS BEGINNING TO MOVE OVER COOLER WATERS AND SHOULD CROSS THE 26C ISOTHERM WITHIN 24 HOURS. AS A RESULT...KIKO IS EXPECTED TO PEAK IN INTENSITY VERY SOON AND COULD STILL BECOME HURRICANE THIS MORNING...ALTHOUGH THAT IS NO LONGER EXPLICITLY INDICATED IN THE UPDATED FOREAST. COOLER SSTS AND THE ENTRAINMENT OF DRIER AIR SHOULD CAUSE A STEADY WEAKENING TREND TO BEGIN BY TONIGHT. KIKO IS FORECAST TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW IN ABOUT THREE DAYS AND DISSIPATE SHORTLY THEREAFTER. THE INITIAL MOTION REMAINS 010/6 KT. THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE NORTHWARD DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO...AROUND THE EASTERN PORTION OF A MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL LOW. AS KIKO WEAKENS AND BECOME A SHALLOW SYSTEM IT SHOULD SLOW DOWN AND BECOME NEARLY STATIONARY IN THE LIGHTER LOW-LEVEL FLOW. THE LATEST TRACK MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS KIKO GAINING MORE LATITUDE BEFORE WEAKENING AND SLOWING DOWN. AS A RESULT...THE NHC FORECAST IS ADJUSTED NORTHWARD TO BE IN BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS. HOWEVER...THE UPDATED TRACK IS A BIT FARTHER SOUTH THAN THE LATEST GFS AND ECMWF SOLUTIONS. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 01/0900Z 20.6N 115.6W 60 KT 70 MPH 12H 01/1800Z 21.4N 115.6W 60 KT 70 MPH 24H 02/0600Z 22.2N 115.8W 55 KT 65 MPH 36H 02/1800Z 22.8N 116.0W 45 KT 50 MPH 48H 03/0600Z 23.1N 116.1W 35 KT 40 MPH 72H 04/0600Z 23.5N 116.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 05/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER BROWN
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Summary for Tropical Storm KIKO (EP1/EP112013)
2013-09-01 10:37:13| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...KIKO MOVING NORTHWARD... As of 2:00 AM PDT Sun Sep 1 the center of KIKO was located near 20.6, -115.6 with movement N at 7 mph. The minimum central pressure was 993 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 70 mph.
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Tropical Storm KIKO Public Advisory Number 6
2013-09-01 10:37:13| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 AM PDT SUN SEP 01 2013 000 WTPZ31 KNHC 010836 TCPEP1 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM KIKO ADVISORY NUMBER 6 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112013 200 AM PDT SUN SEP 01 2013 ...KIKO MOVING NORTHWARD... SUMMARY OF 200 AM PDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...20.6N 115.6W ABOUT 400 MI...640 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 10 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...993 MB...29.32 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ AT 200 AM PDT...0900 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM KIKO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 20.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 115.6 WEST. KIKO IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 7 MPH...11 KM/H. THIS GENERAL MOTION WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED TODAY. A TURN TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST WITH A FURTHER DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS ANTICIPATED BY MONDAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 70 MPH...110 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME SLIGHT STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE AND KIKO COULD STILL BECOME A HURRICANE THIS MORNING. WEAKENING IS FORECAST TO BEGIN BY TONIGHT AND SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES...110 KM FROM THE CENTER. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 993 MB...29.32 INCHES. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- NONE NEXT ADVISORY ------------- NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...800 AM PDT. $$ FORECASTER BROWN
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Tropical Storm KIKO Wind Speed Probabilities Number 6
2013-09-01 10:37:05| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0900 UTC SUN SEP 01 2013 000 FOPZ11 KNHC 010836 PWSEP1 TROPICAL STORM KIKO WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 6 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112013 0900 UTC SUN SEP 01 2013 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM KIKO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 20.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 115.6 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 60 KTS...70 MPH...110 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME I. MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITY TABLE CHANCES THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEED OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL BE WITHIN ANY OF THE FOLLOWING CATEGORIES AT EACH OFFICIAL FORECAST TIME DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS. PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT. X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT. - - - MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITIES - - - VALID TIME 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI FORECAST HOUR 12 24 36 48 72 96 120 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - DISSIPATED X 1 4 13 30 NA NA TROP DEPRESSION 1 6 21 37 45 NA NA TROPICAL STORM 67 71 65 47 24 NA NA HURRICANE 33 23 10 4 1 NA NA - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - HUR CAT 1 32 21 9 4 1 NA NA HUR CAT 2 1 2 1 X X NA NA HUR CAT 3 X X X X X NA NA HUR CAT 4 X X X X X NA NA HUR CAT 5 X X X X X NA NA - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - FCST MAX WIND 60KT 55KT 45KT 35KT 25KT NA NA II. WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE IP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER BROWN
Tropical Storm KIKO Forecast Advisory Number 6
2013-09-01 10:36:33| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0900 UTC SUN SEP 01 2013 000 WTPZ21 KNHC 010836 TCMEP1 TROPICAL STORM KIKO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 6 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112013 0900 UTC SUN SEP 01 2013 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.6N 115.6W AT 01/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 10 DEGREES AT 6 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 993 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 60 KT WITH GUSTS TO 75 KT. 50 KT....... 20NE 20SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT....... 60NE 50SE 40SW 40NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 75NE 50SE 0SW 40NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.6N 115.6W AT 01/0900Z AT 01/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 20.3N 115.6W FORECAST VALID 01/1800Z 21.4N 115.6W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 02/0600Z 22.2N 115.8W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 02/1800Z 22.8N 116.0W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 03/0600Z 23.1N 116.1W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 04/0600Z 23.5N 116.3W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 05/0600Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 20.6N 115.6W NEXT ADVISORY AT 01/1500Z $$ FORECASTER BROWN
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