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Tropical Storm Isaac Forecast Advisory Number 14
2018-09-11 04:42:28| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC TUE SEP 11 2018 670 WTNT24 KNHC 110242 TCMAT4 TROPICAL STORM ISAAC FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 14 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092018 0300 UTC TUE SEP 11 2018 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. INTERESTS IN THE LESSER ANTILLES SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF ISAAC. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.5N 46.9W AT 11/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 14 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 997 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 60 KT WITH GUSTS TO 75 KT. 50 KT....... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT....... 40NE 10SE 10SW 40NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 60SE 60SW 90NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.5N 46.9W AT 11/0300Z AT 11/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.5N 46.2W FORECAST VALID 11/1200Z 14.5N 49.0W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 40NE 10SE 10SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 12/0000Z 14.6N 51.7W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 10NE 0SE 0SW 10NW. 50 KT... 30NE 10SE 10SW 20NW. 34 KT... 50NE 30SE 30SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 12/1200Z 14.8N 54.3W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 0SE 0SW 10NW. 50 KT... 30NE 10SE 10SW 20NW. 34 KT... 70NE 50SE 40SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 13/0000Z 15.0N 56.9W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 0SE 0SW 10NW. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 10SW 20NW. 34 KT... 80NE 50SE 40SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 14/0000Z 15.4N 62.4W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 20SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 80NE 50SE 40SW 80NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 15/0000Z 15.5N 68.0W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 16/0000Z 15.5N 72.5W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.5N 46.9W NEXT ADVISORY AT 11/0900Z $$ FORECASTER ZELINSKY
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Hurricane Isaac Graphics
2018-09-10 22:33:40| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Mon, 10 Sep 2018 20:33:40 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Mon, 10 Sep 2018 21:34:31 GMT
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Hurricane Isaac Forecast Discussion Number 13
2018-09-10 22:31:55| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 PM AST Mon Sep 10 2018 407 WTNT44 KNHC 102031 TCDAT4 Hurricane Isaac Discussion Number 13 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092018 500 PM AST Mon Sep 10 2018 Isaac has not become better organized today. The system continues to display a ragged CDO with limited banding features. Dvorak T-numbers from both TAFB and SAB continue to support an intensity of 65 kt. It is not clear why Isaac has failed to strengthen. Cirrus motions and microwave imagery suggest some shear over the tropical cyclone, which may have had some influence. Isaac should not experience a significant increase in shear until about 48 hours, so some strengthening is called for up to that time. Thereafter, the dynamical guidance shows a significant increase in shear, which should reverse the intensity trend. The HWRF model continues to be an outlier in predicting significant intensification over the Caribbean, whereas the other models do not. The official intensity forecast is above the model consensus over the first half of the period, and below the consensus during the latter part of the period, considering the HWRF could be making the consensus too high at days 3-5. Isaac continues moving westward or 270/12 kt. There continue to be a few differences among the track guidance, in particular the U.K. Met, which shows the system turning northwestward to northward well to the northeast of the Leeward Islands. The GFS takes the system into the Caribbean but shows a more west-northwestward motion. The official forecast stays close to the ECMWF and the corrected consensus predictions, which is very similar to the previous NHC track. Given the spread in the guidance, the confidence in the details of the track forecast beyond the first couple of days is larger than usual. Key Messages: 1. Isaac is a small hurricane and uncertainty in the intensity forecast is greater than normal. Although Isaac is expected to begin weakening when it approaches the Lesser Antilles, it is still likely to be at or near hurricane intensity when it reaches the islands. 2. Interests in the Lesser Antilles should continue to monitor Isaac during the next few days. Watches will likely be required for portions of the Lesser Antilles tomorrow. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 10/2100Z 14.4N 45.0W 65 KT 75 MPH 12H 11/0600Z 14.5N 47.1W 70 KT 80 MPH 24H 11/1800Z 14.6N 49.8W 75 KT 85 MPH 36H 12/0600Z 14.6N 52.3W 75 KT 85 MPH 48H 12/1800Z 14.8N 54.7W 75 KT 85 MPH 72H 13/1800Z 15.3N 60.2W 70 KT 80 MPH 96H 14/1800Z 15.5N 65.5W 60 KT 70 MPH 120H 15/1800Z 15.5N 70.5W 50 KT 60 MPH $$ Forecaster Pasch
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Hurricane Isaac Wind Speed Probabilities Number 13
2018-09-10 22:31:23| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC MON SEP 10 2018 889 FONT14 KNHC 102031 PWSAT4 HURRICANE ISAAC WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 13 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092018 2100 UTC MON SEP 10 2018 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE ISAAC WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 45.0 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 65 KTS...75 MPH...120 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT PT GALLINAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) CURACAO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 6(10) CURACAO 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) CURACAO 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) GRAND TURK 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) MONTEGO BAY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) LES CAYES 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) PORT-AU-PRINCE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 5( 7) CAPE BEATA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 10(13) CAPE BEATA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) PUERTO PLATA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) SANTO DOMINGO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) PONCE PR 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 4(10) AGUADILLA PR 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 4( 9) SAN JUAN PR 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 3( 9) SAN JUAN PR 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) VIEQUES PR 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 14(16) 5(21) VIEQUES PR 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 1( 5) VIEQUES PR 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) SAINT THOMAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 14(16) 4(20) SAINT THOMAS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 1( 5) SAINT THOMAS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) SAINT CROIX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 17(20) 4(24) SAINT CROIX 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 2( 8) SAINT CROIX 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) SAINT MAARTEN 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 15(23) 1(24) SAINT MAARTEN 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) 1( 8) SAINT MAARTEN 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) ST KITTS-NEVIS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 14(14) 18(32) 2(34) ST KITTS-NEVIS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 8(11) X(11) ST KITTS-NEVIS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) BARBUDA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 17(17) 13(30) 1(31) BARBUDA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 5(10) 1(11) BARBUDA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) ANTIGUA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 21(21) 16(37) 1(38) ANTIGUA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 8(14) X(14) ANTIGUA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) 1( 5) GUADELOUPE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 30(30) 17(47) 1(48) GUADELOUPE 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 10(19) X(19) GUADELOUPE 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 4( 7) X( 7) AVES 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 11(11) 28(39) 3(42) AVES 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 10(13) 2(15) AVES 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 1( 5) DOMINICA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 30(30) 20(50) X(50) DOMINICA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 11(11) 11(22) X(22) DOMINICA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 5( 9) X( 9) MARTINIQUE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 30(30) 16(46) X(46) MARTINIQUE 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 11(11) 10(21) X(21) MARTINIQUE 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 4( 8) X( 8) SAINT LUCIA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 24(24) 12(36) 1(37) SAINT LUCIA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 7(15) X(15) SAINT LUCIA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 3( 6) X( 6) SAINT VINCENT 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 17(17) 10(27) 1(28) SAINT VINCENT 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 6(11) X(11) SAINT VINCENT 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) BARBADOS 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 21(23) 6(29) X(29) BARBADOS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) 3(13) X(13) BARBADOS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) GRENADA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 8(15) 1(16) GRENADA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) X( 5) GRENADA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) TRINIDADTOBAGO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 4( 9) X( 9) PORT OF SPAIN 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) JUANGRIEGO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) 1( 9) $$ FORECASTER PASCH
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Summary for Hurricane Isaac (AT4/AL092018)
2018-09-10 22:30:54| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...ISAAC CONTINUES TO SHOW LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH... As of 5:00 PM AST Mon Sep 10 the center of Isaac was located near 14.4, -45.0 with movement W at 14 mph. The minimum central pressure was 993 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 75 mph.
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