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Tropical Storm Isaac Graphics
2018-09-11 04:45:25| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 11 Sep 2018 02:45:25 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 11 Sep 2018 02:45:25 GMT
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Tropical Storm Isaac Forecast Discussion Number 14
2018-09-11 04:43:56| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 PM AST Mon Sep 10 2018 269 WTNT44 KNHC 110243 TCDAT4 Tropical Storm Isaac Discussion Number 14 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092018 1100 PM AST Mon Sep 10 2018 Several microwave images that arrived after the issuance of the last advisory revealed that the low-level center of Isaac has raced ahead of the main convective mass, and the system is poorly vertically aligned. The system also recently passed very near NOAA buoy 41041, which confirmed that the center is on the western side of the central dense overcast. The maximum winds observed by the buoy were only about 30 kt, with a minimum pressure of near 1001 mb. Due to the western adjustment of the center location, the latest Dvorak classification from TAFB is lower, and a blend of the TAFB final-T and CI-numbers supports a lower initial intensity of 60 kt. It is worth noting that this estimate is more uncertain than normal due to limitations of the Dvorak technique, and most of the other intensity estimates are higher. Given the high pressure and light winds at the buoy, I am inclined to favor the lower estimate at this time. Confidence in the track forecast is slightly higher now, and the UKMET is the only outlier that does not bring Isaac westward into the Caribbean within the next 72 h or so. There is still some disagreement on the speed of Isaac, especially once it crosses the Leeward Islands, and this seems largely related to the cyclone's intensity. The ECMWF and GFS depict a weakening storm that simply continues westward, while the HWRF and CTCI show strengthening as Isaac slows down and turns more west-northwestward. The NHC track forecast for now continues to favor the typically more reliable global models and shows a steady westward motion through day 5. The updated NHC forecast is a little faster than the previous advisory, due primarily to the westward adjustment of the initial position, and remains close to HCCA. A slight adjustment has been made to the intensity forecast, but confidence in the intensity forecast remains quite low. Due to the current structure of Isaac, it seems less likely that the tropical storm will intensify more than what is shown by the intensity guidance over the next 24-48 h. The NHC forecast has therefore been lowered slightly, but it is still near the top end of the guidance, and calls for Isaac to be a hurricane when it approaches the Leeward Islands later this week. It is also worth noting that the small size of Isaac could make it more susceptible to sudden short-term changes in intensity that are nearly impossible to forecast. The intensity spread is tremendous by the end of the forecast period, with multiple models showing Isaac becoming a major hurricane around day 4 or 5, and others showing outright dissipation. The NHC forecasts have been favoring a weaker solution thus far due to an expected increase in shear beginning in a couple of days, and I see no reason to make a dramatic change at this point. Key Messages: 1. Isaac is expected to be at or near hurricane intensity when it approaches the Lesser Antilles. However, confidence in the forecast is lower than normal. 2. Interests in the Lesser Antilles should continue to monitor Isaac during the next few days. Watches will likely be required for portions of the Lesser Antilles tomorrow. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 11/0300Z 14.5N 46.9W 60 KT 70 MPH 12H 11/1200Z 14.5N 49.0W 60 KT 70 MPH 24H 12/0000Z 14.6N 51.7W 65 KT 75 MPH 36H 12/1200Z 14.8N 54.3W 65 KT 75 MPH 48H 13/0000Z 15.0N 56.9W 65 KT 75 MPH 72H 14/0000Z 15.4N 62.4W 60 KT 70 MPH 96H 15/0000Z 15.5N 68.0W 55 KT 65 MPH 120H 16/0000Z 15.5N 72.5W 50 KT 60 MPH $$ Forecaster Zelinsky
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Summary for Tropical Storm Isaac (AT4/AL092018)
2018-09-11 04:43:26| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...ISAAC A LITTLE WEAKER... ...STILL EXPECTED TO BE AT OR NEAR HURRICANE STRENGTH WHEN IT APPROACHES THE LEEWARD ISLANDS LATER THIS WEEK... As of 11:00 PM AST Mon Sep 10 the center of Isaac was located near 14.5, -46.9 with movement W at 16 mph. The minimum central pressure was 997 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 70 mph.
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Tropical Storm Isaac Public Advisory Number 14
2018-09-11 04:43:26| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 PM AST Mon Sep 10 2018 968 WTNT34 KNHC 110243 TCPAT4 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Isaac Advisory Number 14 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092018 1100 PM AST Mon Sep 10 2018 ...ISAAC A LITTLE WEAKER... ...STILL EXPECTED TO BE AT OR NEAR HURRICANE STRENGTH WHEN IT APPROACHES THE LEEWARD ISLANDS LATER THIS WEEK... SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...14.5N 46.9W ABOUT 960 MI...1550 KM E OF THE LESSER ANTILLES MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...997 MB...29.44 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. Interests in the Lesser Antilles should monitor the progress of Isaac. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Isaac was located near latitude 14.5 North, longitude 46.9 West. Isaac is moving toward the west near 16 mph (26 km/h). This general motion is expected to continue through the end of the week. On the forecast track, Isaac should move across the Lesser Antilles and into the eastern Caribbean Sea on Thursday. The maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 70 mph (110 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is forecast during the next few days, but Isaac is forecast to be at or near hurricane strength as it approaches the Lesser Antilles later this week. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 997 mb (29.44 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- RAINFALL: Isaac is expected to produce total rainfall accumulations of 2 to 4 inches with isolated amounts near 6 inches across the Leeward Islands late this week, with 1 to 2 inches anticipated across the Windward Islands. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Zelinsky
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Tropical Storm Isaac Wind Speed Probabilities Number 14
2018-09-11 04:43:26| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC TUE SEP 11 2018 959 FONT14 KNHC 110243 PWSAT4 TROPICAL STORM ISAAC WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 14 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092018 0300 UTC TUE SEP 11 2018 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ISAAC WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 46.9 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 60 KTS...70 MPH...110 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT PT GALLINAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 7(10) CURACAO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 4(11) CURACAO 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) CURACAO 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) GRAND TURK 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) MONTEGO BAY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) KINGSTON 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) LES CAYES 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) PORT-AU-PRINCE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 6( 9) CAPE BEATA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 7(14) CAPE BEATA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) PUERTO PLATA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 3( 6) SANTO DOMINGO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 3( 7) PONCE PR 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9) 2(11) AGUADILLA PR 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 2( 8) SAN JUAN PR 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) 1( 9) VIEQUES PR 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 13(19) 2(21) VIEQUES PR 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 1( 6) VIEQUES PR 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) SAINT THOMAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 11(18) 1(19) SAINT THOMAS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) X( 5) SAINT THOMAS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) SAINT CROIX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 11(11) 12(23) 2(25) SAINT CROIX 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) 1( 7) SAINT CROIX 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) SAINT MAARTEN 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 13(13) 9(22) X(22) SAINT MAARTEN 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 3( 6) X( 6) SAINT MAARTEN 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) ST KITTS-NEVIS 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 20(21) 9(30) X(30) ST KITTS-NEVIS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 4(10) X(10) ST KITTS-NEVIS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) BARBUDA 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 20(21) 6(27) 1(28) BARBUDA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 2( 8) X( 8) BARBUDA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) ANTIGUA 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 27(28) 5(33) 1(34) ANTIGUA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 3(11) X(11) ANTIGUA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) GUADELOUPE 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 34(36) 7(43) X(43) GUADELOUPE 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 13(13) 4(17) X(17) GUADELOUPE 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) AVES 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 23(23) 16(39) 1(40) AVES 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 6(13) 1(14) AVES 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) DOMINICA 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 38(40) 6(46) X(46) DOMINICA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 14(14) 3(17) X(17) DOMINICA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) MARTINIQUE 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 33(36) 5(41) X(41) MARTINIQUE 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 14(14) 2(16) 1(17) MARTINIQUE 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) SAINT LUCIA 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 24(26) 5(31) 1(32) SAINT LUCIA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 2(11) X(11) SAINT LUCIA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) SAINT VINCENT 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 17(19) 4(23) 1(24) SAINT VINCENT 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 1( 7) 1( 8) SAINT VINCENT 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) BARBADOS 34 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 17(21) 1(22) 1(23) BARBADOS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) X( 7) X( 7) BARBADOS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) GRENADA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 3(12) 1(13) GRENADA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) TRINIDADTOBAGO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) JUANGRIEGO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) X( 6) $$ FORECASTER ZELINSKY
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