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Hurricane Isaac Public Advisory Number 13
2018-09-10 22:30:54| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 PM AST Mon Sep 10 2018 643 WTNT34 KNHC 102030 TCPAT4 BULLETIN Hurricane Isaac Advisory Number 13 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092018 500 PM AST Mon Sep 10 2018 ...ISAAC CONTINUES TO SHOW LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH... SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...14.4N 45.0W ABOUT 1090 MI...1755 KM E OF THE LESSER ANTILLES MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...993 MB...29.33 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. Interests in the Lesser Antilles should monitor the progress of Isaac. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Hurricane Isaac was located near latitude 14.4 North, longitude 45.0 West. Isaac is moving toward the west near 14 mph (22 km/h). A westward motion with a slight increase in forward speed is expected through the end of the week. On the forecast track, Isaac should move across the Lesser Antilles and into the eastern Caribbean Sea on Thursday. Maximum sustained winds are near 75 mph (120 km/h) with higher gusts. Some strengthening is expected over the next day or two. Weakening is forecast to begin by the middle of the week as Isaac approaches the Lesser Antilles. Isaac is a small hurricane. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 10 miles (20 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 993 mb (29.33 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Pasch
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Hurricane Isaac Forecast Advisory Number 13
2018-09-10 22:30:54| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC MON SEP 10 2018 642 WTNT24 KNHC 102030 TCMAT4 HURRICANE ISAAC FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 13 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092018 2100 UTC MON SEP 10 2018 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. INTERESTS IN THE LESSER ANTILLES SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF ISAAC. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.4N 45.0W AT 10/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 12 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 993 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 65 KT WITH GUSTS TO 80 KT. 64 KT....... 10NE 0SE 0SW 10NW. 50 KT....... 20NE 10SE 10SW 20NW. 34 KT....... 40NE 20SE 20SW 40NW. 12 FT SEAS..120NE 60SE 60SW 90NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.4N 45.0W AT 10/2100Z AT 10/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.4N 44.4W FORECAST VALID 11/0600Z 14.5N 47.1W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 10NE 0SE 0SW 10NW. 50 KT... 20NE 10SE 10SW 20NW. 34 KT... 50NE 20SE 20SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 11/1800Z 14.6N 49.8W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 10NE 10SE 10SW 10NW. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 20NW. 34 KT... 50NE 30SE 30SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 12/0600Z 14.6N 52.3W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 10SE 10SW 10NW. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 20NW. 34 KT... 70NE 40SE 40SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 12/1800Z 14.8N 54.7W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 10SE 10SW 15NW. 50 KT... 40NE 20SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 80NE 40SE 40SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 13/1800Z 15.3N 60.2W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 20SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 80NE 50SE 40SW 80NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 14/1800Z 15.5N 65.5W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 15/1800Z 15.5N 70.5W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.4N 45.0W NEXT ADVISORY AT 11/0300Z $$ FORECASTER PASCH
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Hurricane Isaac Graphics
2018-09-10 16:39:50| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Mon, 10 Sep 2018 14:39:50 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Mon, 10 Sep 2018 14:39:50 GMT
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Hurricane Isaac Forecast Discussion Number 12
2018-09-10 16:36:25| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 AM AST Mon Sep 10 2018 273 WTNT44 KNHC 101436 TCDAT4 Hurricane Isaac Discussion Number 12 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092018 1100 AM AST Mon Sep 10 2018 Isaac's cloud pattern is currently a bit ragged-looking, with an irregular CDO and limited convective banding. Dvorak intensity estimates from both TAFB and SAB are 65 kt, and that value will be used for the advisory. There is significant uncertainty in the intensity forecast for this system. Vertical wind shear over the hurricane is forecast to be weak to moderate during the next day or so, which should allow Isaac to strengthen somewhat. By 48 hours, however, the global models depict significantly stronger northwesterly shear, associated with an upper-level trough over the central Atlantic, affecting the tropical cyclone. Most of the guidance does not show Isaac strengthening over the Caribbean. The HWRF model is an outlier, strengthening Isaac into a major hurricane later in the period, and it is the main contributor to high consensus forecasts at days 3-5. The NHC intensity forecast is above the model consensus through 72 hours and below it by the end of the period. Isaac continues to move westward, or 275/12 kt. A subtropical ridge should be maintained to the north of the tropical cyclone for the next several days, so a continued westward track seems likely. The U. K. Met. Office model is an outlier and shows Isaac turning northwestward and northward to the northeast of the Leeward Islands. The official track forecast, like the previous one, follows the other reliable global models and is also close to the HFIP corrected consensus guidance. Key Messages: 1. Isaac is a small hurricane and uncertainty in the forecast is greater than normal. Although Isaac is forecast to begin weakening when it approaches the Lesser Antilles, it is still expected to be at or near hurricane intensity when it reaches the islands. 2. Interests in the Lesser Antilles should continue to monitor Isaac during the next few days. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 10/1500Z 14.7N 43.9W 65 KT 75 MPH 12H 11/0000Z 14.9N 45.9W 70 KT 80 MPH 24H 11/1200Z 15.0N 48.7W 75 KT 85 MPH 36H 12/0000Z 15.0N 51.4W 75 KT 85 MPH 48H 12/1200Z 15.1N 54.0W 75 KT 85 MPH 72H 13/1200Z 15.4N 59.4W 70 KT 80 MPH 96H 14/1200Z 15.5N 64.5W 60 KT 70 MPH 120H 15/1200Z 15.7N 70.0W 50 KT 60 MPH $$ Forecaster Pasch
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Summary for Hurricane Isaac (AT4/AL092018)
2018-09-10 16:35:53| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...ISAAC SHOWING LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH AT THIS TIME... As of 11:00 AM AST Mon Sep 10 the center of Isaac was located near 14.7, -43.9 with movement W at 14 mph. The minimum central pressure was 993 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 75 mph.
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