je.st
news
Tag: isaac
Tropical Storm Isaac Forecast Discussion Number 15
2018-09-11 10:31:59| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 AM AST Tue Sep 11 2018 608 WTNT44 KNHC 110831 TCDAT4 Tropical Storm Isaac Discussion Number 15 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092018 500 AM AST Tue Sep 11 2018 Isaac has not changed much overnight. Satellite images indicate that the strong tropical storm still has a central dense overcast pattern and a limited amount of outer bands. Earlier microwave data indicated that the center was not located in the middle of the convection, however, likely due to some westerly shear. Since the cyclone has changed little during the past several hours, the initial intensity is held at 60 kt, which is an average of the TAFB and SAB Dvorak final T- and CI-numbers. A nearby NOAA buoy shows that the wind field of Isaac is very compact, with tropical-storm- force winds only extending up to 40 n mi from the center. Satellite fixes suggest that Isaac continues to move westward at 13 kt. Although there remains a fair amount of spread in the models, the usually more reliable GFS and ECMWF models continue to show a westward motion during the next several days as the storm moves on the south side of a strengthening mid-level ridge. The NHC track forecast continues to follow that theme, and this forecast lies near a blend of the GFS and ECMWF aids. This forecast is a little slower than the previous one, and takes Isaac across the Lesser Antilles and into the eastern Caribbean in 2 to 3 days. Predicting Isaac's intensity has been challenging. Isaac appeared to have been in relatively favorable conditions during the past day or so, but it did not strengthen. The upper-level pattern should remain relatively favorable for another day, so modest strengthening back to a hurricane is possible during that time. Thereafter, however, an increase in shear first from a trough in the central Atlantic and then from the outflow of Florence should cause some weakening when the storm moves into the Caribbean. The models are in a little better agreement this cycle as the HWRF is no longer showing Isaac becoming a major hurricane. The NHC intensity forecast is very similar to the previous one and is fairly close to the consensus aids. Key Messages: 1. Isaac is expected to be at or near hurricane intensity when it approaches the Lesser Antilles. However, confidence in the forecast is lower than normal. 2. Interests in the Lesser Antilles should continue to monitor Isaac during the next couple of days. Watches will likely be required for portions of the Lesser Antilles later today. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 11/0900Z 14.6N 48.1W 60 KT 70 MPH 12H 11/1800Z 14.6N 50.1W 60 KT 70 MPH 24H 12/0600Z 14.6N 52.6W 65 KT 75 MPH 36H 12/1800Z 14.8N 55.0W 65 KT 75 MPH 48H 13/0600Z 15.1N 57.6W 60 KT 70 MPH 72H 14/0600Z 15.5N 62.8W 55 KT 65 MPH 96H 15/0600Z 15.6N 67.4W 55 KT 65 MPH 120H 16/0600Z 15.8N 72.0W 50 KT 60 MPH $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
Tags: number
discussion
storm
tropical
Summary for Tropical Storm Isaac (AT4/AL092018)
2018-09-11 10:31:29| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...ISAAC REMAINS A STRONG TROPICAL STORM OVER THE CENTRAL TROPICAL ATLANTIC... As of 5:00 AM AST Tue Sep 11 the center of Isaac was located near 14.6, -48.1 with movement W at 14 mph. The minimum central pressure was 997 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 70 mph.
Tags: summary
storm
tropical
isaac
Tropical Storm Isaac Public Advisory Number 15
2018-09-11 10:31:29| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 AM AST Tue Sep 11 2018 303 WTNT34 KNHC 110831 TCPAT4 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Isaac Advisory Number 15 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092018 500 AM AST Tue Sep 11 2018 ...ISAAC REMAINS A STRONG TROPICAL STORM OVER THE CENTRAL TROPICAL ATLANTIC... SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...14.6N 48.1W ABOUT 880 MI...1420 KM E OF THE LESSER ANTILLES MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...997 MB...29.44 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. Interests in the Lesser Antilles should monitor the progress of Isaac. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Isaac was located near latitude 14.6 North, longitude 48.1 West. Isaac is moving toward the west near 14 mph (22 km/h). This general motion is expected to continue through the end of the week. On the forecast track, Isaac should move across the Lesser Antilles and into the eastern Caribbean Sea on Thursday. Maximum sustained winds remain near 70 mph (110 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is forecast during the next few days, but Isaac is forecast to be at or near hurricane strength as it approaches the Lesser Antilles. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 997 mb (29.44 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- RAINFALL: Isaac is expected to produce total rainfall accumulations of 2 to 4 inches with isolated amounts near 6 inches across the Leeward Islands late this week, with 1 to 2 inches anticipated across the Windward Islands. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
Tags: number
public
storm
advisory
Tropical Storm Isaac Forecast Advisory Number 15
2018-09-11 10:31:29| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC TUE SEP 11 2018 304 WTNT24 KNHC 110831 TCMAT4 TROPICAL STORM ISAAC FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 15 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092018 0900 UTC TUE SEP 11 2018 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. INTERESTS IN THE LESSER ANTILLES SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF ISAAC. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.6N 48.1W AT 11/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 12 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 997 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 60 KT WITH GUSTS TO 75 KT. 50 KT....... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT....... 40NE 10SE 10SW 40NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 60SE 60SW 90NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.6N 48.1W AT 11/0900Z AT 11/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.6N 47.5W FORECAST VALID 11/1800Z 14.6N 50.1W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 40NE 10SE 10SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 12/0600Z 14.6N 52.6W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT... 30NE 10SE 10SW 20NW. 34 KT... 50NE 30SE 30SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 12/1800Z 14.8N 55.0W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT... 30NE 10SE 10SW 20NW. 34 KT... 70NE 50SE 40SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 13/0600Z 15.1N 57.6W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 10SW 20NW. 34 KT... 80NE 50SE 40SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 14/0600Z 15.5N 62.8W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 20SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 80NE 50SE 40SW 80NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 15/0600Z 15.6N 67.4W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 16/0600Z 15.8N 72.0W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.6N 48.1W NEXT ADVISORY AT 11/1500Z $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
Tags: number
storm
advisory
tropical
Tropical Storm Isaac Wind Speed Probabilities Number 15
2018-09-11 10:31:28| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC TUE SEP 11 2018 176 FONT14 KNHC 110831 PWSAT4 TROPICAL STORM ISAAC WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 15 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092018 0900 UTC TUE SEP 11 2018 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ISAAC WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 48.1 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 60 KTS...70 MPH...110 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT PT GALLINAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 5( 8) CURACAO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 5(11) CURACAO 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) CURACAO 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) GRAND TURK 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) MONTEGO BAY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) LES CAYES 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) PORT-AU-PRINCE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 5( 8) CAPE BEATA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 8(14) CAPE BEATA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) PUERTO PLATA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 3( 6) SANTO DOMINGO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 4( 7) PONCE PR 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 6( 8) 2(10) AGUADILLA PR 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 2( 8) SAN JUAN PR 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 6( 8) 1( 9) VIEQUES PR 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 11(18) 3(21) VIEQUES PR 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 1( 5) VIEQUES PR 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) SAINT THOMAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 9(17) 2(19) SAINT THOMAS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 1( 5) SAINT THOMAS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) SAINT CROIX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 12(12) 11(23) 2(25) SAINT CROIX 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) 1( 7) SAINT CROIX 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) SAINT MAARTEN 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 13(14) 7(21) 1(22) SAINT MAARTEN 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) 1( 6) SAINT MAARTEN 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) ST KITTS-NEVIS 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 21(22) 7(29) X(29) ST KITTS-NEVIS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 3( 9) X( 9) ST KITTS-NEVIS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) BARBUDA 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 19(21) 5(26) X(26) BARBUDA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 2( 7) X( 7) BARBUDA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) ANTIGUA 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 26(28) 5(33) X(33) ANTIGUA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 2(10) 1(11) ANTIGUA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) GUADELOUPE 34 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 33(37) 5(42) X(42) GUADELOUPE 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 13(13) 1(14) X(14) GUADELOUPE 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) AVES 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 23(24) 13(37) 2(39) AVES 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 4(11) 1(12) AVES 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) DOMINICA 34 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 34(38) 5(43) X(43) DOMINICA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 13(13) 2(15) 1(16) DOMINICA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) MARTINIQUE 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 32(35) 4(39) X(39) MARTINIQUE 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 11(11) 1(12) 1(13) MARTINIQUE 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) SAINT LUCIA 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 19(22) 4(26) 1(27) SAINT LUCIA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) SAINT LUCIA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) SAINT VINCENT 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 14(16) 3(19) X(19) SAINT VINCENT 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) SAINT VINCENT 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) BARBADOS 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 13(18) 1(19) 1(20) BARBADOS 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) X( 5) X( 5) BARBADOS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 1( 2) GRENADA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 2( 9) 1(10) GRENADA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) TRINIDADTOBAGO 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) JUANGRIEGO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) 1( 6) $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
Sites : [16] [17] [18] [19] [20] [21] [22] [23] [24] [25] [26] [27] [28] [29] [30] [31] [32] [33] [34] [35] next »