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Hurricane Ophelia Forecast Advisory Number 27

2017-10-15 22:41:09| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 2100 UTC SUN OCT 15 2017 000 WTNT22 KNHC 152041 TCMAT2 HURRICANE OPHELIA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 27 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL172017 2100 UTC SUN OCT 15 2017 THERE ARE NO COASTAL TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. INTERESTS IN IRELAND SHOULD MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY MET EIREANN...AND INTERESTS IN THE UNITED KINGDOM SHOULD MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY THE UK MET OFFICE. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 44.6N 13.3W AT 15/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR 25 DEGREES AT 33 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 971 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 75 KT WITH GUSTS TO 90 KT. 64 KT....... 30NE 50SE 50SW 30NW. 50 KT....... 60NE 100SE 100SW 60NW. 34 KT.......100NE 220SE 220SW 180NW. 12 FT SEAS..100NE 240SE 660SW 300NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 44.6N 13.3W AT 15/2100Z AT 15/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 43.1N 14.3W FORECAST VALID 16/0600Z 49.2N 11.3W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 70SE 80SW 30NW. 50 KT... 80NE 150SE 150SW 100NW. 34 KT...180NE 250SE 220SW 180NW. FORECAST VALID 16/1800Z 54.3N 7.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT...140NE 150SE 150SW 140NW. 34 KT...230NE 300SE 300SW 230NW. FORECAST VALID 17/0600Z 58.5N 2.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT...200NE 270SE 270SW 200NW. FORECAST VALID 17/1800Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 44.6N 13.3W NEXT ADVISORY AT 16/0300Z $$ FORECASTER ZELINSKY

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Hurricane Ophelia Public Advisory Number 27

2017-10-15 22:41:09| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 500 PM AST Sun Oct 15 2017 000 WTNT32 KNHC 152041 TCPAT2 BULLETIN Hurricane Ophelia Advisory Number 27 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL172017 500 PM AST Sun Oct 15 2017 ...OPHELIA STILL A HURRICANE BUT EXPECTED TO BECOME A POWERFUL POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE TONIGHT... SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...44.6N 13.3W ABOUT 840 MI...1355 KM NE OF THE AZORES ABOUT 505 MI...810 KM SSW OF MIZEN HEAD IRELAND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 25 DEGREES AT 38 MPH...61 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...971 MB...28.68 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal tropical cyclone watches or warnings in effect. Interests in Ireland should monitor products issued by Met Eireann, and interests in the United Kingdom should monitor products issued by the UK Met Office. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Hurricane Ophelia was located near latitude 44.6 North, longitude 13.3 West. Ophelia is moving toward the north-northeast near 38 mph (61 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue through Monday. On the forecast track, the center of Ophelia will cross over Ireland on Monday, however strong winds and rain will extend far from the center. Maximum sustained winds are near 85 mph (140 km/h) with higher gusts. Ophelia is expected to be a hurricane-force post-tropical cyclone when it nears the coast of Ireland on Monday. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 255 miles (405 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 971 mb (28.68 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Gale-force winds are expected to begin across southern Ireland by early Monday morning and gradually spread northward across the country during the day. Hurricane-force winds are expected to reach the southern portions of Ireland by Monday afternoon. Strong winds will then spread inland across the Ireland and parts of the UK into Monday night. Preparations to protect lives and property should be nearing completion. Wind speeds atop and on the windward sides of hills and mountains are often up to 30 percent stronger than the near-surface winds indicated in this advisory, and in some elevated locations could be even greater. RAINFALL: Ophelia is expected to produce rainfall amounts of 2 to 3 inches (50 mm to 75 mm) with isolated totals near 4 inches (100 mm) through Tuesday across western Ireland and Scotland. Across eastern Ireland, rainfall amounts will average around 1 inch (25 mm) or less. STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge is expected to produce significant coastal flooding near and to the east of where the center of the post-tropical cyclone makes landfall. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Zelinsky

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Hurricane Ophelia Graphics

2017-10-15 16:50:12| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sun, 15 Oct 2017 14:50:12 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 15 Oct 2017 15:25:15 GMT

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Hurricane Ophelia Forecast Discussion Number 26

2017-10-15 16:45:10| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 1100 AM AST Sun Oct 15 2017 000 WTNT42 KNHC 151445 TCDAT2 Hurricane Ophelia Discussion Number 26 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL172017 1100 AM AST Sun Oct 15 2017 After displaying a distinct eye overnight, recent satellite imagery indicate that the cloud pattern of Ophelia has begun to deteriorate and the eye is no longer apparent. The deep convection is also weakening fast and consequently, Dvorak numbers have begun to decrease while analysts are trying to lower them as much as the technique allows. The best estimate of the initial intensity is 80 kt. Given the cold waters of about 20 deg C, and the strong shear, Ophelia is forecast to gradually weaken and become a post-tropical cyclone later today. Satellite fixes indicate that Ophelia is moving toward the north-northeast or 025 degrees at 33 kt, well embedded within the fast flow ahead of a large trough. This pattern is expected to persist, so no significant change in track is anticipated before dissipation. Guidance continues to be in remarkably good agreement and most of the models bring a weakened post-tropical Ophelia to the southern coast of Ireland Monday morning (AST or Miami time). Thereafter, the cyclone will continue over northern Great Britain until dissipation. Strong winds and rains associated with Post-Tropical Ophelia will arrive well in advance of the cyclone center. Residents in those locations should consult products from their local meteorological service for more information on local impacts. KEY MESSAGES: 1. Ophelia is expected to be a powerful extratropical cyclone with hurricane force winds while it moves near Ireland and the United Kingdom. Direct impacts from wind and heavy rain in portions of these areas are likely, along with dangerous marine conditions. For more details on the magnitude, timing, and location of impacts from post-tropical Ophelia, residents in Ireland should refer to products issued by Met Eireann, and residents in the United Kingdom should refer to products issued by the Met Office. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 15/1500Z 41.6N 16.0W 80 KT 90 MPH 12H 16/0000Z 46.0N 13.0W 75 KT 85 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 24H 16/1200Z 51.5N 9.5W 65 KT 75 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 36H 17/0000Z 57.0N 5.0W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 48H 17/1200Z 60.5N 1.5W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 72H 18/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Avila

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Summary for Hurricane Ophelia (AT2/AL172017)

2017-10-15 16:43:09| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

...OPHELIA EXPECTED TO BECOME A STRONG POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE BY TONIGHT... As of 11:00 AM AST Sun Oct 15 the center of Ophelia was located near 41.6, -16.0 with movement NNE at 38 mph. The minimum central pressure was 973 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 90 mph.

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