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Hurricane Ophelia Forecast Advisory Number 23
2017-10-14 22:36:30| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC SAT OCT 14 2017 000 WTNT22 KNHC 142036 TCMAT2 HURRICANE OPHELIA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 23 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL172017 2100 UTC SAT OCT 14 2017 THERE ARE NO COASTAL TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. INTERESTS IN THE AZORES SHOULD REFER TO PRODUCTS ISSUED BY THE AZORES WEATHER FORECAST AND WATCH CENTER. INTERESTS IN IRELAND SHOULD MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY MET EIREANN... AND INTERESTS IN THE UNITED KINGDOM SHOULD MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY THE UK MET OFFICE. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 35.9N 23.7W AT 14/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 55 DEGREES AT 24 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 960 MB EYE DIAMETER 30 NM MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 100 KT WITH GUSTS TO 120 KT. 64 KT....... 30NE 40SE 30SW 15NW. 50 KT....... 50NE 60SE 60SW 20NW. 34 KT....... 80NE 110SE 110SW 40NW. 12 FT SEAS..180NE 240SE 300SW 400NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 35.9N 23.7W AT 14/2100Z AT 14/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 35.3N 25.1W FORECAST VALID 15/0600Z 38.0N 20.0W MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 15NW. 50 KT... 40NE 60SE 40SW 30NW. 34 KT... 80NE 120SE 140SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 15/1800Z 42.8N 15.3W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 15NW. 50 KT... 50NE 60SE 40SW 40NW. 34 KT...180NE 180SE 160SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 16/0600Z 48.8N 12.3W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 50NE 60SE 60SW 0NW. 50 KT... 90NE 140SE 140SW 90NW. 34 KT...240NE 280SE 240SW 200NW. FORECAST VALID 16/1800Z 54.0N 9.3W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 60NE 90SE 90SW 60NW. 34 KT...250NE 300SE 250SW 200NW. FORECAST VALID 17/1800Z 59.5N 3.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT...200NE 270SE 270SW 160NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 18/1800Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 35.9N 23.7W NEXT ADVISORY AT 15/0300Z $$ FORECASTER ZELINSKY
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Hurricane Ophelia Graphics
2017-10-14 16:44:25| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sat, 14 Oct 2017 14:44:25 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sat, 14 Oct 2017 14:44:25 GMT
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Hurricane Ophelia Forecast Discussion Number 22
2017-10-14 16:38:57| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 AM AST Sat Oct 14 2017 000 WTNT42 KNHC 141438 TCDAT2 Hurricane Ophelia Discussion Number 22 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL172017 1100 AM AST Sat Oct 14 2017 During the past few hours, Ophelia's satellite presentation has improved significantly. The eye has become even more distinct with a temperature of 16 deg C, and has been surrounded by very deep convection. T-numbers from TAFB and SAB have reached 5.5 on the Dvorak scale, and the objective numbers from CIMMS have been oscillating around T5.8 and T5.9 recently. Based on these estimates, the initial intensity has been increased conservatively to 100 kt, making Ophelia a category 3 hurricane on the SSHS. Ophelia is a quite intense and rare hurricane for its location in the northeastern Atlantic. Increasing shear and cold waters will soon begin to impact Ophelia, and the hurricane should begin to acquire extratropical characteristics in about 36 hours or sooner. Although some weakening is anticipated, Ophelia is expected to reach the British Isles as a powerful extratropical cyclone with hurricane force winds. Dissipation is forecast in about 4 days after the system moved over these Isles. Satellite fixes indicate that Ophelia is moving toward the northeast or 055 degrees at 22 kt. The hurricane is well embedded within the southwesterly flow associated with the southern extension of a large mid-latitude trough, and this pattern should continue to steer the cyclone northeastward and north-northeastward with increasing forward speed for the next 2 to 3 days until dissipation. Track models are in excellent agreement and the guidance envelope is quite tight. The NHC forecast is not different from previous ones, and it is very close to the HFIP corrected consensus HCCA and the multi-model ensemble TVCX. Given that Ophelia is forecast to become extratropical, the wind field should expand, resulting in impacts over portions of the British Isles regardless of its exact location or strength. Although the center of Ophelia is not forecast to reach Ireland or the UK for another couple of days, wind and rains will arrive well in advance of the cyclone center. Individuals in those locations should consult products from their local meteorological service for more information on local impacts. Tropical-storm-force winds are possible throughout the Azores after Ophelia passes to the south and east later today and tonight as a cold front moves through the islands. Interests in the Azores should refer to products issued by the Azores Weather Forecast and Watch Center. KEY MESSAGES: 1. Ophelia is expected to be a powerful extratropical cyclone with hurricane force winds Monday while it moves near Ireland and the United Kingdom. Direct impacts from wind and heavy rain in portions of these areas are likely, along with dangerous marine conditions. For more details on the magnitude, timing, and location of impacts from post-tropical Ophelia, residents in Ireland should refer to products issued by Met Eireann, and residents in the United Kingdom should refer to products issued by the Met Office. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 14/1500Z 34.8N 26.6W 100 KT 115 MPH 12H 15/0000Z 36.5N 23.0W 95 KT 110 MPH 24H 15/1200Z 40.5N 18.0W 90 KT 105 MPH 36H 16/0000Z 46.5N 14.0W 85 KT 100 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 48H 16/1200Z 51.5N 11.0W 75 KT 85 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 72H 17/1200Z 59.0N 6.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 96H 18/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Avila
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Summary for Hurricane Ophelia (AT2/AL172017)
2017-10-14 16:38:30| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...OPHELIA BECOMES A RARE CATEGORY 3 HURRICANE SOUTH OF THE AZORES... ...THIS IS THE SIXTH MAJOR HURRICANE OF THE 2017 SEASON... As of 11:00 AM AST Sat Oct 14 the center of Ophelia was located near 34.8, -26.6 with movement NE at 25 mph. The minimum central pressure was 960 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 115 mph.
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Hurricane Ophelia Public Advisory Number 22
2017-10-14 16:38:30| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 AM AST Sat Oct 14 2017 000 WTNT32 KNHC 141438 TCPAT2 BULLETIN Hurricane Ophelia Advisory Number 22 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL172017 1100 AM AST Sat Oct 14 2017 ...OPHELIA BECOMES A RARE CATEGORY 3 HURRICANE SOUTH OF THE AZORES... ...THIS IS THE SIXTH MAJOR HURRICANE OF THE 2017 SEASON... SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...34.8N 26.6W ABOUT 220 MI...355 KM S OF THE AZORES MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...115 MPH...185 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 55 DEGREES AT 25 MPH...41 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...960 MB...28.35 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal tropical cyclone watches or warnings in effect. Interests in the Azores should refer to products issued by the Azores Weather Forecast and Watch Center. Interests in Ireland should monitor products issued by Met Eireann, and interests in the United Kingdom should monitor products issued by the UK Met Office. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the distinct eye of Hurricane Ophelia was located near latitude 34.8 North, longitude 26.6 West. Ophelia is moving toward the northeast near 25 mph (41 km/h), and this motion is expected continue through Sunday with a turn toward the north-northeast thereafter. On the forecast track, the core of Ophelia will pass to the south and southeast of the southeastern Azores by tonight. Satellite data indicate that the maximum sustained winds have increased near 115 mph (185 km/h) with higher gusts. Ophelia is a category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. No significant change in strength is expected today, but gradual weakening should begin tonight or Sunday. However, Ophelia is still expected to remain a powerful cyclone with hurricane force winds for the next couple of days as it approaches Ireland. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 125 miles (205 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 960 mb (28.35 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Tropical-storm-force winds are possible throughout the Azores beginning this afternoon or tonight, primarily due to an approaching cold front. RAINFALL: Ophelia is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 1 to 3 inches over the central and southeastern Azores through Saturday night. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Avila
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